Investment advice
Weekly topic: the similarities and differences between the industry fundamentals after this round of epidemic and those in the past 20 years? From the perspective of Baijiu market, we believe that it is mainly due to the change of valuation level, and the performance level panel remains relatively stable.
Performance side: scene control points still exist, and consumer sentiment can still recover. In terms of Baijiu consumption, we believe that the main constraints are consumption scenario control + consumption emotional fatigue. 1) In terms of consumption scenarios, we expect that the probability of making up for the wedding and birthday banquet in the short term is high, while the phased business and other drinking consumption is less limited due to its small scale. 2) In terms of consumption emotion, it is related to consumption frequency and consumption level. At present, there are many similarities between the macro level and real estate level and 20q1. The market concern mainly lies in whether the follow-up macro environment will continue to be under pressure and the recovery of consumption. We believe that the bottleneck of the rising wholesale price of the fifth general plan also contains the concern of demand level. Looking forward to 22h2, we believe that Baijiu consumption is partial to face, and the demand toughness is relatively strong. At present, the policy side is improving, and the demand recovery can still be expected. At present, liquor enterprises generally did not reduce the expected target of the whole year, and mostly carried out sales promotion such as battle at the terminal. By regulating the delivery and payment rhythm, stabilizing the pricing and alleviating the financial pressure on the channel, they still adhered to a relatively benign development idea as a whole.
Valuation end: it has been promoted in 20 years and gradually digested since 21 years. At present, it has reached the central level. 1) In the past 20 years, under the background of relatively loose liquidity, combined with the pursuit of certainty, the Baijiu sector has been attractive. In addition, Feitian has continued to rise since March 20, driving the growth space of the sector. 2) In the past 21 years, the industry tended to pursue growth, with policy risks superimposed on the disturbance of dot epidemic, the continuous outflow of foreign capital from Maotai and the continuous correction of the sector. At present, the price of puwu is under pressure at about 1000 yuan, and the market has doubts about the future growth expectation of the sector. The overall valuation of the sector has been in the rhythm of digestion for 21 years.
Baijiu: facing the current external disturbance, we first recommend Maotai, including the certainty of performance growth and the stability of profit quality. It is suggested to pay attention to the elastic main line of post epidemic repair. From March to April, liquor enterprises generally regulate the rhythm of payment and delivery, and the wholesale price has basically stabilized. At present, Q2 payment collection has been carried out successively. If the scene constraint slows down from June, the release of epidemic demand can still be expected. It is suggested to pay attention to elastic sub high-end and real estate wine.
Beer: the demand recovery trend is obvious, and the repair order of short-term epidemic situation is at the top. In May, the demand recovered month on month, and Tsingtao beer is expected to increase year-on-year due to the impact of replenishment, logistics recovery and preparation rhythm; From January to April, the sales volume of China Resources was the second highest and above, with a growth rate of 10-20% and a high single digit growth rate of ASP. Cost: Recently, the prices of glass and aluminum materials have improved. China Resources feedback that the cost is expected, and the gross profit margin can be at least flat from January to April.
Dairy products: affected by the epidemic in April, the growth rate of Yili is expected to slow down slightly. However, compared with other sub sectors, dairy enterprises still have strong risk resistance, and the cost is stable, with a slight decrease compared with the same period. In the medium and long term, the demands and means of improving the net interest rate of the top two companies are still clear, and the safety margin of current valuation is strong.
Food synthesis: Qiaqia has outstanding anti risk ability under the epidemic situation. It is expected that melon seeds will maintain an increase of about 30% from April to may, nuts will increase by about 20% in April, and the growth rate is expected to increase in May. As the b-end catering and offline retail have not been completely repaired, there is still a certain pressure on the food end standard. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the elasticity brought by the subsequent epidemic repair.
Condiments: in May, the C-end and b-end improved with the recovery of logistics and takeout, but the overall marginal improvement was weak. If the epidemic situation is properly controlled, the large-scale performance repair of condiment enterprises is expected to break out in H2, but H1 is less than expected, which may affect the achievement of the annual target. It is suggested to pay attention to Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) .
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, continuous and repeated epidemic risk and regional market competition risk.
