The European photovoltaic market exceeded expectations and the demand for photovoltaic glass was strongly supported
Last week, the price of 2mm photovoltaic glass was 21.92 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month; The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass was 28.5 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month. The inventory days of manufacturers were 15.04 days, an increase of 5.49% month on month. At this stage, China's distributed photovoltaic installation is progressing well. The new installed capacity of 1-4 moonlight volts in China reached 16.88gw, including 3.67gw in April, a year-on-year increase of + 110% and a month on month increase of + 57%; From the perspective of foreign countries, the EU policy will be further strengthened, and the Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic power generation capacity will double by 2025, exceeding the previous market expectation. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls in the future and driven by policies, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve in 22 / 23 years. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass was 56210 tons last week, unchanged from last week; With the early ignition production lines reaching production capacity one after another, the supply shows a continuous increasing trend. Continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous rise in volume and price of short-term leading companies.
Float glass inventory is high, and the profits of some manufacturers hit the bottom
The average price of float glass in China this week decreased by 49.54 yuan / ton, or 2.43%, compared with last week. On the whole, although the demand has recovered slightly after the lifting of some restrictions in some regions recently, the overall improvement is limited. The manufacturer's inventory was 64.52 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.21 million weight boxes compared with last week, and the production capacity during the week was 174125t / D, unchanged from last week. Cost side: during the week, the soda ash market was consolidated at a high level, the fuel price basically stabilized, and the overall cost price was at a high level. In the later stage of the market, the profit level of the industry is low, but under the slow start of demand, some factories still have the possibility of transferring profits and absorbing orders. At present, some factories are in a state of loss, and the short-term profit margin of the industry remains weak. We believe that with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the fall of reserve requirements, it is conducive to the restoration of real estate confidence, the demand side of float glass is still expected to pick up, and Q3 demand is expected to reach a small peak.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
1) photovoltaic glass: the demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the production capacity side has high growth. It is recommended to recommend leading companies with PE less than 20 times in 23 years [Xinyi solar energy], [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (both covered jointly with Dianxin);
2) float glass: the share price of float glass leader has been greatly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of its float business under the equilibrium state and the additional growth brought by the new business, we believe that the current float glass leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ], [Xinyi Glass] (both have a certain capacity of building energy-saving glass);
3) new glass materials: UTG original film breaks through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. Continue to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (jointly covered with the electronic group). Under the domestic substitution logic of medicinal glass, recommend the head enterprise of CBSI medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (jointly covered with the Pharmaceutical Group).
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed the downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and other products beyond expectations; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
