Roving prices stabilized this week and continued to be optimistic about the continuity of the industry boom. The price of glass fiber roving is stable this week, the trading is stable and weak, the transportation and logistics in some regions are affected, the superimposed epidemic has a certain impact on China's demand, and there is a certain upward pressure on the phased inventory. In the follow-up, we need to focus on the impact of the epidemic on China's demand. At the same time, we need to pay attention to the increase of demand and the increase of export, wind power and new energy vehicle penetration. It is expected to have good support and long-term growth in 22 years. This week, 30000 tons of roving of Sichuan Yuda glass fiber was ignited, and there was no change in the planning of new production capacity in 22 years. We judged that the impact of supply on the prosperity of the industry was relatively limited, and we should pay attention to the continuous guidance of the association's orderly expansion of new production capacity. We are optimistic about the continuation of high prosperity and weakening of cyclical fluctuations in the glass fiber industry, limited supply increment, focus on the impact of the epidemic, the persistence of high prosperity in exports and the improvement of wind power demand; At the same time, pay close attention to: 1) the impact of changes in medium and long-term capacity planning of enterprises under the state of high profitability on market expectations; 2) the disturbance caused by the tightening of energy consumption indicators on the landing of new capacity.
The prices of electronic yarn and electronic cloth are stable this week and are expected to enter a supported range. This week, the prices of electronic yarn and electronic cloth were stable, the impact kinetic energy of new supply was gradually digested, and the cost may have formed a strong support for the price; We are optimistic about the demand for follow-up electronic cloth, and the probability of further downward price may be small China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) electronic yarn and electronic thick cloth production capacity continued to expand, and the share increased steadily Grace Fabric Technology Co.Ltd(603256) high end electronic cloth technology has advantages (the first echelon in the world), gradually realize self supply of high-end electronic yarn, and pay attention to the production rhythm and operation effect of Huangshi gauze project.
22q1 performance proves the high business continuity of the industry, and the industry cycle attribute may be gradually weakened, focusing on China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) etc. The valuation of the main listed companies in the glass fiber sector is in the historical bottom range (the PE of the main listed traditional glass fiber enterprises in 22 years is about 10x), and the medium and long-term configuration cost performance is good. We judge that the roving cycle fluctuation is weakening, or there is a certain expectation difference. We suggest that we pay attention to the opportunity of valuation reshaping under the weakening of industry cycle, continue to recommend China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , which has a stable global leading position, firmly promotes cost reduction / scale expansion / high-end product structure, and has medium and long-term growth, Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , which has strong glass fiber business strength, improved diaphragm benefits / gradually improved voice, and has medium and long-term growth of blades, with obvious technical advantages, and Huangshi gauze project is gradually put into operation Grace Fabric Technology Co.Ltd(603256) (jointly covered with the electronic team) with the gradual emergence of the growth inflection point. In addition, Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (jointly covered with the chemical team) and Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) which are worth looking forward to growth are also suggested to focus on.
Risk tip: the new production capacity of glass fiber exceeds the expectation, the new production capacity planning exceeds the expectation, and the downstream demand is lower than the expectation (wind power, automobile, electronics, etc.).
