Key investment points:
Market review: from May 16 to May 20, 2022, CITIC consumer service industry index fell by 1.87% as a whole, ranking the 28th among all CITIC primary industry indexes, losing about 4.1 percentage points to the CSI 300 index in the same period. Among the segments of CITIC’s consumer service industry, comprehensive services, hotel catering, tourism and leisure and education sectors rose or fell by 1.49%, – 1.45%, 1.70% and 2.31% respectively. Except for the education sector, they all lost to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. There were 37 listed companies with positive earnings in the industry, and the top five were Western Regions Tourism Development Co.Ltd(300859) , Kaiyuan Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(300338) , Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) , Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) , Dalian Sunasia Tourism Holding Co.Ltd(600593) , up 24.13%, 18.22%, 14.97%, 14.52% and 13.49% respectively. There are 15 listed companies that have achieved negative returns, among which the top five listed companies are Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) , Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , with increases and decreases of – 2.90%, – 2.92%, – 4.15%, – 5.52% and – 7.89% respectively. As of May 20, 2022, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC consumer service industry was about 42.70 times, slightly higher than that of last week, 46.58 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive service sectors are 40.51 times, 100.78 times, 29.63 times and 27.68 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of May 20, 2022, the vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people in China has reached 23328 doses, the cumulative vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine has reached 3.37 billion doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 1286700 doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 149.32 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 59.77%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 7126400 doses.
Key industry news: (1) 100 listed tourism enterprises had a total revenue of 757.9 billion yuan and a loss of 31.5 billion yuan last year. (2) The Ministry of culture and tourism requires that the “circuit breaker” mechanism for the management of inter provincial tourism business activities be strictly implemented. (3) The European Commission announced that flights in all EU member states can not force passengers to show nucleic acid test reports, vaccine certificates and entry health registration before boarding. (4) Hainan Haiqi Transportation Group Co.Ltd(603069) intends to purchase part or all of the equity of sea travel tax-free.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. Guangdong, Tibet and other provinces stimulate cultural and tourism consumption by distributing consumption vouchers. The Civil Aviation Administration has deployed special support policies for China’s passenger flights, and the state and local governments have jointly given subsidies to civil aviation companies. The relief and assistance policies for industries damaged by the epidemic have been gradually implemented. Superimposed on Shanghai, the social aspects have been cleared, tourism travel is expected to recover gradually, and the overall valuation of the industry is expected to be repaired. The suggestion is to focus on the follow-up focus on the company that is expected to be the focal company of scenic spots that will be able to benefit from the relief and tax tax policies that help the relief and tax cuts, such as Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) Haikou international duty free city will be the tax-free leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ) to be opened before the national day.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; The promotion of relevant policies is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks; The development of vaccines and drugs is less than expected.
