Sector market review
This week (05 / 16-05 / 20), the transportation index rose 2.1%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.2%, underperformed the market by 0.1%, ranking 15 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the bus sector increased the most (+ 10.0%), and the port sector decreased the most (- 0.3%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: the business volume is positive year-on-year, and is expected to resume high growth in June. According to the national post office, the express business volume during the “May Day” holiday has become positive year-on-year. The epidemic has increased the proportion of online consumption and entered the traditional peak season in June. The suppressed consumer demand is expected to be released, and the growth rate of express business is expected to reach more than 30%. The performance of express delivery enterprises has entered the cashing period. In 2021q4, Zhongtong, Yunda, Yuantong and SF have achieved performance restoration, and the profit growth rates are 37%, 81%, 202% and 43% respectively. Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) q4 has expanded due to the significant provision for asset impairment. In 2022q1, the profits of Yuantong and Yunda increased by 135% and 52% year-on-year. SF and Shentong turned losses into profits. SF’s performance increased significantly mainly due to (1) continuous focus on core logistics strategy and emphasis on sustainable and healthy development; (2) Optimize the product structure and reduce the number of products with low gross profit; (3) Adhere to lean cost control; (4) Business profitability improved and new businesses reduced losses year-on-year; (5) Merge Kerry Logistics from 2021q4. The peak of capital expenditure of express companies may have passed, and the profit in 2022 is expected to continue to repair. Recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Zhongtong express, pay attention to Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) .
Logistics: the performance growth of chemical logistics is determined, and the demand of Tob supply chain is broad. There is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After the accidents such as Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and so on, the supervision becomes stricter, which limits the supply of the industry, the demand side still increases every year, and the performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain. The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win. In 2021, the growth rate for 2021 will be the growth rate of the performance growth in 2021: the growth rate for the 2021 year of the 2021 year of the 2021 ”’ 3 + 45%, Xingtong shares + 7%. Recommend Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) , Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) , pay attention to Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) .
Airport: multiple negative factors resonate, and bargain hunting layout is recommended. This week, the number of new cases of covid-19 pneumonia in China continued to decline, and the impact of the epidemic gradually weakened. China’s air transport volume decreased by 73% year-on-year, the decline narrowed, and the price decreased by 7% year-on-year. On May 16, the Civil Aviation Administration of China deployed a special support policy for China’s passenger flights and planned to provide “no loss” minimum support for 4500 Chinese passenger flights through cash subsidies from May 21 to July 20. If the number of flights is very low, the policy will help the orderly recovery of flights. In the short term, multiple negative factors resonate, and the airline company is expected to reproduce large losses in the second quarter. In terms of cost, the oil price is at a high level. In May, the ex factory price of China aviation oil was 7859 yuan / ton, up 97% year-on-year; In terms of expenses, Q2 RMB has depreciated by 5%. In the medium term, vaccines and covid-19 oral drugs will strengthen the covid-19 prevention and control system, eliminate the impact of the epidemic, and after the international liberalization, the airport operation of AVIC will be significantly improved and the investment value of the sector will be highlighted. Short term performance is under pressure. It is suggested to bargain hunting layout and pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Shipping: centralized transportation: CCFI increased by 1.55% month on month, and SCFI increased by 0.4% month on month. Oil transportation: the crude oil transportation index BDTI decreased by 1.9% month on month and increased by 82% year on year; The refined oil transportation index bcti increased by 1.2% month on month and 171% year-on-year. Dry bulk cargo: BDI index increased by 7.7% month on month and 18% year on year. With the global economic recovery, the demand for oil transportation has gradually recovered, and the supply side is limited by the demolition of old ships, environmental protection policies and slipway capacity. It is suggested to pay attention to the oil transportation sector.
Risk tips
The impact of the epidemic exceeds the expected risk, the risk of oil price rise, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation, and the risk of price war exceeds the expected risk.
