Industry tracking (2022.5.142022.5.20)
In May, the five-year LPR was lowered and the credit environment was relaxed
On May 20, 2022, the central bank authorized the national interbank lending center to announce that the one-year LPR was 3.7% (the previous value was 3.7%), unchanged from the previous month; The LPR over 5 years was 4.45% (the previous value was 4.6%), down 15bps from the previous month. In May, the interest rate of the first house loan in the mainstream 103 cities monitored by the shell Research Institute was 4.91%, and the interest rate of the second house was 5.32%, down 26 and 13bps compared with April, down for eight consecutive months, and down 83 and 68bps respectively compared with the high point in September of 21 years.
Accelerated reduction of mortgage interest rate
After the 5-year LPR was lowered by 5 BP in January 22, it was lowered by 15 BP again, superimposing the new deal on May 15,
At present, the lower limit of the loan interest rate for the first and second homes has been further reduced to 4.25% and 5.05%. Referring to the weighted average interest rate of individual housing loans according to the caliber of the central bank, the current lower limit of the first housing loan interest rate is lower than the previous low of 4.34% in June 2009 and 4.52% in September 2016. In addition, according to the statistics of E-House Research Institute, 20 cities, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Suzhou, Kunming, Chongqing and Shenyang, have a mortgage interest rate of 4.4% (2 in the first tier, 8 in the second tier and 10 in the third tier). The mortgage interest rate shows an accelerated adjustment trend, which is different from the previous market's understanding of the gradual adjustment of mortgage interest rate.
Looking forward to one-step regulation, time is more important than space
If we simply look at 15bp + 20bp, it is indeed insignificant compared with the current damaged confidence and cash flow on the demand side, but we also see that the number of cities that cut 50-60bp in a single month is increasing rapidly at the actual implementation level. From the perspective of policy effect, we believe that one-step regulation can maximize the regulation effect (avoiding the waste of policy tools and the wait-and-see mood on the demand side). Whether from the position of the current fundamentals or the effect of the early implementation of policies due to the city, it is believed that the policy may have sufficient reasons to increase the weight, and there may be more one-step adjustments. Because in the case of limited policy space or obvious constraints, time may be more important than space.
Affected by the epidemic, the decline in transactions in new houses, second-hand houses and land markets continued to expand this week
The new housing market traded 3.87 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year increase of - 49.58%, an improvement of 1.72 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory was 157.08 million square meters, the second-line, third-line and below were accelerated, and the first-line was slowed down. The second-hand housing market traded 1.4 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year increase of - 29.37%, an improvement of 9.07pct compared with the previous month. The land market traded 17.61 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of - 34.22%; The total turnover was 41.7 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of - 54.23%; The national average premium rate was + 3.03%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -17.16pct.
This week, the Shenwan real estate index was + 0.57%, down 3.34 PCT from last week, ranking 30 / 31 higher, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.66 PCT. In terms of H shares, this week's wind Hong Kong real estate index was + 3.49%, up 4.55pct from last week, ranking 8 / 11 higher, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.62pct; The leading index of kroney real estate stocks was 4.64%, up 7.67pct from last week.
Grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
Investment suggestion: the future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service. It is suggested to pay attention to: Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) , Yuexiu real estate, China Construction Development International and other local state-owned enterprises.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The decline of industry sales exceeded expectations; Because the implementation of urban policies is less than expected
