Core view
Weekly performance of the sector: this week (May 16, 2022-may 20), the mechanical equipment sector rose by 3.2%, and the top five sectors were electrical equipment / non-ferrous metals / Automobile / Electronics / chemical industry, rising by 7.3% / 6.9% / 4.4% / 4.4% / 4.3% respectively;
Sector valuation level: the median pettm of machinery sector is 29x, of which the highest valuation is shipbuilding (72.4x) and the lowest valuation is construction machinery (12.9x). From the historical data within 10 years, the P / E ratio of the machinery sector is in the quantile of 13.45%;
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: the five stocks with the highest increase this week are Mingke Jingji, Hunan Yujing Machinery Co.Ltd(002943) , huachangda, Zhejiang Yonggui Electric Equipment Co.Ltd(300351) , minglida;
Industry highlights: (1) Notice of the people's Bank of China and Bank Of China Limited(601988) Insurance Regulatory Commission on issues related to the adjustment of differentiated housing credit policies; (2) Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, interpreted the statistical data of changes in the sales price of commercial housing in April 2022; (3) Data released by the National Bureau of energy industry from January to April; (4) Recently, many places in China have launched consumer voucher issuance activities.
Investment proposal and investment object
The resumption of interest rate hikes and the performance of us machinery imports: (1) China's manufacturing industry slowed down in April. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in April, the added value of industries above designated size decreased by 2.9% year-on-year and 7.08% month on month. Among them, the added value of the mining industry increased by 9.5% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry decreased by 4.6%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 1.5%. The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 4.0% year-on-year. We are mainly affected by the epidemic. As production returns to normal, the relevant prosperity is expected to pick up; (2) Machinery export is better than domestic sales: in April, the production and sales of various types of equipment fell, the monthly output of metal cutting machine tools / industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) decreased by 19.0% / 8.4% respectively, and the monthly sales of excavators / truck cranes / forklifts decreased by 47.3% / 67.4% / 21.6% respectively. However, the export volume of excavator / truck crane / forklift increased by 55.2% / 9.3% / 24.4% respectively in a single month; (3) Performance of US imported equipment after interest rate hike: since 1999, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates three times, from June 1999 to May 2000 / June 2004 to June 2006 / December 2015 to December 2018. From the perspective of capacity utilization of US manufacturing industry, the utilization rate of machinery manufacturing industry / manufacturing industry is still rising at the beginning of interest rate hike, but after the end of interest rate hike, the utilization rate begins to decline, and the utilization rate of machinery manufacturing industry is slightly ahead of the general manufacturing industry. In terms of the import volume of machinery and transportation equipment in the United States, the growth rate at the beginning of the interest rate increase remained high, but the import growth rate decreased after the interest rate increase. We believe that in the early stage of this round of interest rate hike, China's machinery exports will remain relatively high. From a long-term perspective, the international status of China's machinery manufacturing has continued to rise in the past 20 years. We believe that the capacity and competitiveness of China's machinery and equipment will continue in the future. For details, see the in-depth report "machinery industry of investment logic in the post epidemic era: elastic deformation and plastic deformation".
It is recommended to pay attention to:
(1) construction machinery: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ( Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , not rated), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ( Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , bought), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ( Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , not rated), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) ( Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) , not rated), Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) ( Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) , not rated); (2) Industrial equipment: Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) ( Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) , Unrated), Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) ( Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) , Unrated), Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) ( Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) , Unrated), Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) ( Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) , Unrated), Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ( Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Unrated), Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) ( Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) , Unrated); (3) Logistics automation: Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) ( Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) , not rated), Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) ( Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) , not rated), Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) ( Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) , not rated); (4) Energy equipment: Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ( Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , not rated), Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ( Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , not rated), Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) ( Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , buy), Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) ( Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) , not rated), Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) ( Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) , not rated), Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) ( Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) , not rated); (5) Rail transit equipment: Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) ( Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) , not rated), Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) ( Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) , not rated); (6) Service & Consumption: Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) ( Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) , buy), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) ( Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) , not rated), Jack Sewing Machine Co.Ltd(603337) ( Jack Sewing Machine Co.Ltd(603337) , not rated), Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) ( Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) , not rated), Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) ( Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) , not rated), Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603901) ( Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603901) , not rated).
Risk tips
The development of the epidemic is less than expected, the macro economy is less than expected, infrastructure investment is less than expected, raw material prices rise, and Global trade conflicts intensify.
