Basic conclusion
Since 2021, electricity meter bidding has accelerated, and a new cycle is expected to start. Smart meters are the core sensing unit of power grid data acquisition. From 2009 to 2019, smart meter bidding experienced a complete cycle. At the peak, the number of State Grid bidding was nearly 100 million, and the bidding amount exceeded 20 billion yuan. After full coverage, the number of State Grid bidding in 2017 decreased to less than 40 million. In 2020, the new standard will be implemented, the unit price of the new meter will be significantly increased, and the superposition of replacement demand will lead to the increase of bidding volume. In 2021, the number and amount of bidding for smart meters of State Grid will increase by 28% / 49% respectively, and the new cycle of meters is expected to start.
Supporting the construction of new power system, the penetration rate of intelligent IOT meter is expected to increase. Under the construction cycle of the new power system, the function and positioning of the new standard electricity meters have been significantly strengthened, and the penetration of IOT meters with high unit price is expected to continue to accelerate. The penetration of IOT meters in the bidding of State Grid electricity meters from 2020 to 2021 is less than 1%, which has increased to about 4% in the first batch in 2022, and is expected to continue to increase in the future. In addition, distributed generation, energy storage, charging pile and other scenarios bring additional increment to the demand of the new standard electricity meter.
The scale of bidding is driven by multiple factors, and the bidding amount of State Grid in 24 years is expected to exceed 30 billion. At present, there is still a large gap between the number of bidding for electricity meters of the State Grid and the peak bidding level of the previous cycle. Driven by many factors, such as the rigid demand for the replacement of existing electricity meters, the acceleration of the penetration of IOT meters and the increase of the unit price of new standard electricity meters, the number of bidding is expected to continue to increase in the future, and the bidding amount is expected to continue to grow rapidly. It is estimated that the total bidding amount of smart meters and acquisition terminals of State Grid is expected to reach 24.6/296/34.2 billion yuan in 22-24 years, with a growth rate of 22% / 20% / 16%.
In 21 years, the orders of electricity meter enterprises increased rapidly, and the performance flexibility in 22 years was large. In 2021, the order growth rate of the State Grid of mainstream electricity meter enterprises is generally in the range of 40% – 80%. Considering the delivery cycle, the performance is expected to be reflected in 22 years. Superimposed overseas business benefits from exchange rate factors, and the performance flexibility of electricity meter enterprises in 22 years is large.
Investment suggestions:
At present, the valuation of the electricity meter sector is at a low level. The order growth rate of electricity meter enterprises is high in 21 years, and the bidding in 22 years is expected to continue to grow rapidly, with strong performance elasticity and sustainability. It is suggested to pay attention to Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Willfar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688100) , etc.
Risk tips: power grid investment is less than expected, upstream raw materials rise, tight supply of core devices, etc
