Key investment points:
Market review. As of May 20, 2022, CITIC’s basic chemical industry rose by 4.27% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.04 percentage points and ranking sixth among CITIC’s 30 industries; CITIC’s basic chemical industry rose 9.23% this month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.70 percentage points and ranking fourth among CITIC’s 30 industries. As for the three-level sub industries of CITIC basic chemical industry, the top five sectors with the best performance in recent week are fluorine chemical (+ 12.06%), soda (+ 11.80%), rubber additives (+ 10.55%), carbon fiber (+ 10.10%) and potassium fertilizer (+ 7.56%); From the performance of the last week, the top five sectors with the worst performance are food and feed additives (0.00%), printing and dyeing chemicals (+ 0.98%), titanium dioxide (+ 1.04%), pesticides (+ 1.11%) and other plastic products (+ 1.35%).
Rise and fall of chemical products: among the key monitored chemical products, the products with the top five price increases this week are butadiene (+ 7.22%), aniline (+ 4.67%), caustic soda (+ 4.60%), CIS polybutadiene rubber (+ 4.44%), vinyl acetate (+ 4.43%), and the products with the top five price decreases are butanone (- 12.50%), coke (- 5.93%), raw salt (- 5.80%), ethylene (- 5.73%) and propylene (- 4.86%).
Weekly view of basic chemical industry: the recent devaluation of RMB is good for the fields and companies with a high proportion of export business. It is suggested to pay attention to the tire enterprises Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) ( Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) ) that have raised prices to transmit part of the cost pressure and are mainly in overseas replacement demand; Some varieties of sweeteners account for a large proportion of exports. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of sweeteners Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ( Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ). The war between Russia and Ukraine is short-term or difficult to end. Recently, India announced a ban on wheat export, and international grain prices fluctuated at a high level. We can continue to pay attention to individual stocks in the agrochemical sector, such as Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) ( Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) ), Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ( Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ), Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ( Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ), Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) ( Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) ), Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ), Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) ( Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) ), etc. Recently, the regulation and control policies of real estate in many places have been relaxed and the demand for photovoltaic glass is strong. We can pay attention to companies in the field of soda ash ( Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) ), the upstream raw material of glass, and Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) ( Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) ) in the field of titanium dioxide. The price of PV upstream EVA particles continues to rise recently. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ) and Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) ( Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) ). The medium and long-term fundamentals of industry leading companies are stable. It is recommended to pay attention to Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ), Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ( Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ), etc.
Risk warning: the fluctuation risk of energy price and international grain price caused by the uncertainty of Russia Ukraine conflict; Risk of narrowing the price difference of chemical products due to sharp fluctuations in oil prices; Under the background of stable supply and price, the export of some chemical fertilizers in China is limited; If macroeconomic pressure leads to the risk that the downstream demand of chemical products is lower than expected; Risk of deterioration of supply and demand pattern due to the rapid release of new capacity of some chemical products; The risk of intensified industry competition; The demand for real estate and infrastructure is lower than the expected risk; Natural and man-made disasters and other force majeure events.
