In the first year of land wind parity in 2021, the whole wind power plant sector “increased profits without increasing income”, the pressure on the cost side of the parts sector increased, and the poor benefits of some cost sensitive parts dragged down the profitability of the whole sector. After the land wind rush in 2020, the growth rate of wind power installed capacity slowed down in 2021, superimposed with the cost reduction of the whole industry brought by the era of parity and the acceleration of large-scale. According to the financial data of the sample company, the total income of the whole machine factory sector was 117742 billion yuan, yoy + 6.18%, the total profit was 7.555 billion yuan, yoy + 53.33%, and the profit growth was significantly faster than the income growth, mainly due to the significant increase in investment income of the whole machine factory sector, the improvement of product structure Generally pay attention to product design technology and realize technical cost reduction. From the change trend of the income of the whole machine factory, the dispute over the market share of the head whole machine factory is becoming increasingly white hot. In 2021, according to the financial data of the sample company, the total revenue of the parts sector was 142909 billion yuan, yoy + 9.05%, and the total profit was 12.188 billion yuan, yoy-2.50%. The profit growth rate of the sector was lower than that of the revenue growth, which was mainly due to the poor performance of some parts enterprises, which dragged down the overall performance of the sector. Specifically, the profitability toughness of blades, gearboxes, bearings and some supporting links was strong. 2022q1 continues the trend of 2021 as a whole. The profit of the whole machine factory has improved significantly, and the profit of parts enterprises is under great pressure, waiting for the inflection point. According to the financial data of the sample company, the total revenue of the whole machine factory in 2022q1 is 21.461 billion yuan, yoy + 21.91%, and the total profit is 2.917 billion yuan, yoy + 107.49%.
The growth of income and profit of 2022q1 complete machine factory is good, which is mainly due to: ① the improvement of product structure of complete machine factory under the sea breeze rush loading market in 2021, and there is more revenue carried forward and recognized in 2022q1; ② According to Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) data, the price of wind power public bidding at the end of 2021 hit the bottom and rebounded periodically, which was shown on the statement end of the whole plant. According to the financial data of the sample companies, the total revenue of the parts sector is 28.463 billion yuan, yoy-6.74%, and the total profit is 2.795 billion yuan, yoy-16.19%. The trend of profitability differentiation is increasing. From the apparent data, under the background of rising raw material prices, the pressure of cost sensitive towers and castings and forgings is large, and the blades, bearings and submarine cables have achieved steady and rapid growth.
Future outlook: focus on the improvement of parts profit and the large-scale shipment of Haifeng products. ① As the epidemic situation eases and the peak construction season arrives, the delivery peak will be reached in the second half of 2022, and the parts and components of wind power are expected to achieve profitable repair: mainly for the links (towers, castings and forgings) whose profitability is greatly affected in the early stage, from the cost side, the price negotiation at the beginning of the year is expected to cover the adverse effects caused by the high cost of raw materials; From the price side, the price competition of large MW models slows down, which is conducive to maintaining the stable delivery price of parts. ② From the 2022q1 sea breeze bidding data, the annual sea breeze bidding scale is expected to exceed expectations, and the sea breeze volume in 2023 is expected to benefit the leading manufacturers of sea breeze product layout.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to high-quality fan parts manufacturers such as Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Haili wind power, Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) .
Risk warning: the new installed capacity of wind power is less than expected; The market competition of complete machine factory intensifies, further squeezing the profit space of parts and components; The cost reduction rate of parts enterprises is lower than expected; There may be a deviation between the sample statistical data and the overall performance of the sector.
