(1) Baijiu industry: hierarchical competition, regional liquor has advantages. ① Hierarchical competition: the characteristics of cash prepayment, high net profit and non burden of inventory in the Baijiu industry form the bottom support for the “letting a hundred flowers bloom” of the liquor industry, while the hierarchical competition mode of price, region and scene has laid the groundwork for the decentralization of waist enterprises in recent ten years. ② the scene determines the playing method: the regional liquor volume of “business high frequency” and “public self drinking” is high, and attention is paid to terminal fine management, and the proportion of sales manual salary is higher; The quantity of secondary high-end is small, and the number of single ton sales driven by distribution is leading; High end enterprises pay more attention to brand marketing, with higher salaries and fewer people. ③ Trend evolution: under the premise of liberalizing the “restricted” management of production capacity and the background of “volume reduction and price increase”, it will further promote the three trend opportunities of high-end price increase, sub high-end volume increase and regional wine upgrading.
(2) history of Huijiu: focusing on marketing and steady upgrading. Before 1997, the expansion within the province occupied the second place of Baijiu outside Sichuan; In the 1990s, Gujing’s “lowering the degree and reducing the price” faded out of the dispute over the leader; In 2000, the blast furnace family advocated “family culture” for a short time and won the championship. After four years, it was founded the “sector in sector” marketing model and attached importance to the Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) transcendence of high-end products; In 2007, gujinggong deepened the reform and established the marketing mode of “three links project”, and returned to the leading position in the province in 2010; In 2012 and 2017, the mainstream price bands in the province stood at 100 yuan and 150 yuan respectively, and now continue to upgrade upward.
(3) Anhui opportunities: high regional barriers and double price opportunities.
① Baijiu is a famous province in history: the per capita alcohol consumption is the third, the number of Baijiu listed companies is the second, the output, profits and taxes are in the forefront all the year round, the economic vitality is strong, and the historical background is outstanding.
② do not enter Sichuan in the West and Anhui in the East: in 2021, the brands in the province account for 66% of the Baijiu market in the province, and gujinggong, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) yingjiagong account for more than half of the total, far exceeding the brands outside the province.
③ double price opportunity:
It is expected that the price of the leading products in Anhui will increase steadily and the price of the leading products will increase by Beijing Comens New Materials Co.Ltd(300200) yuan under the background of reducing the price and improving the capacity of the leading products in Anhui since 2012.
500 yuan + overall capacity expansion: under the background of the national secondary high-end trend and the early completion of market education for GU20 and other brands outside the province, there are expansion opportunities for brands in the province by virtue of consumption stickiness. The scale of the price range of Lihe Technology (Hunan) Co.Ltd(300800) yuan is expected to double in 2025.
(4) Hui liquor competition: differences appear, confrontation moves towards competition and cooperation.
① one super and two strong: gujinggong (26% market share, the same below) has outstanding scale, high price share, strong first mover advantage, high cost investment, fine management and large profit elasticity Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (15%) medium and high prices account for an excellent proportion. The dealers have the largest scale and the strongest profitability. When deepening marketing reform and promoting innovation at the secondary high end are in progress, the income elasticity is high; Yingjiagong (10%) is reshaping the competition pattern of the price band below 250 yuan through Dongzang series, which is still in a period of rapid growth. ② Confrontation to competition and cooperation: the price makes the leaders stand firm in order, and the re purchase achieves the real barrier of the region. The price belt of the three leaders is opened, and the cost investment and the differences in the core cities are moving from confrontation to competition and cooperation. Continue to pay attention to Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) .
Risk warning: the risk of increasing the impact of the epidemic; The risk of expanding the impact of brands outside the province in the sub high-end price segment; The risk of reduced sales volume and increased brand competition pressure in the province due to consumption upgrading and alcohol consumption reduction in the middle and low-end price segment; Food safety risks.
