Talk every Monday: loose real estate policy, optimistic about the leading household sector
Real estate policy has been loose for nearly half a year. In 2022, the central and local real estate loosening POLICIES continued to be introduced. At the central level, many ministries and commissions have made intensive statements to maintain the stability of real estate. When the Ministry of Finance suspended the pilot of real estate tax reform, the central bank cut the reserve requirements and interest rates. At the local level, more than 70 cities have issued policies to stabilize real estate and promote real estate sales, including reducing mortgage interest rates, canceling the restrictions on the sale of new houses and second-hand houses, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, reducing the down payment ratio, talent subsidies, deed tax subsidies, etc. Among them, Changsha has found another way to revitalize the stock of housing.
Loose real estate policies boost the demand side of real estate. The loosening of real estate policies, the cancellation of house purchase restrictions, the implementation of house purchase subsidies and other policies are conducive to real estate sales. On May 15, the central bank lowered the lower limit of mortgage interest rate, and the cost of house purchase decreased, which is expected to boost the sluggish market demand. According to the weekly transaction area, number of sets and year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities, real estate transactions increased this month.
The performance of home and real estate has strong linkage, and the completed area and sales area of real estate have a positive impact on home retail sales. In June 2019, the completed area of real estate reached the bottom year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. Since then, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of home retail sales has slowed down. The completed area of real estate and home retail sales reached the bottom year-on-year in February 2020, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 22.9% and 33.5% respectively. In February 2020, the cumulative sales area of real estate and household retail sales decreased by 39.9% and 33.5% respectively year-on-year. There is a positive correlation between real estate sales and the market of the household sector. The overweight of the real estate policy will provide a guarantee for the improvement of the demand side of household goods.
The 21 year household leader shows resilience, and the medium and long-term performance can be expected. Under the background of pressure on the real estate side in 21 years, the leading performance of the home sector is good and demonstrates toughness. In the 21st year, the growth rate of the leading revenue of the household sector was steady, and the growth rate of the revenue of Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) and Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) all year was ahead of the industry In Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) 21 years, the net profit was 458 million yuan, and the net profit of oupai furniture was 252 million yuan. 22q1 under the repeated influence of the epidemic, the revenue of Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) and Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) still maintained stable growth, with net profits of 458 million yuan and 252 million yuan respectively. The boom of the real estate chain is expected to pick up, which will support the medium and long-term demand of household enterprises and ensure the expected performance.
Loose real estate policy, optimistic about the leading household sector. In the context of the current real estate policy, there may be problems in the future
More favorable policies will further boost the demand side of household products. Compared with this year, the real estate policy has become stricter in 21 years, and the leading household sector has maintained good performance; Under the background of the continuous implementation of real estate easing policies, the performance may be steadily improved. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the household sector: Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ( Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) . SH), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ( Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) . SH).
Market review (may 16-may 20):
Among the Shenwan level industries, the light industry manufacturing industry rose 2.32% this week, ranking 16th among Shenwan 31 level-1 industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the packaging and printing sector performed better, up 3.91%, and the paper sector performed poorly, up 0.34%; The textile and garment industry rose 2.88% this week, ranking 12th among Shenwan's 31 primary industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the clothing and home textile sector rose 3.43%, the textile manufacturing sector rose 2.63% and the jewelry sector rose 1.62%.
Industry data tracking:
Furniture: the price of TDI this week is lower than that of last week, and the price of MDI is lower than that of last week.
Papermaking: according to Zhuo Chuang information, in terms of pulp, on May 20, the market price of coniferous pulp was 740446 yuan / ton, down 0.42% from last Friday; The market price of broad-leaved pulp was 658409 yuan / ton, up 2.22% from last Friday; The market price of natural color pulp was 6700 yuan / ton, up 1.77% from last Friday; The market price of chemical mechanical pulp was 549583 yuan / ton, up 0.23% from last Friday. In terms of packaging paper, on May 20, the market price of corrugated paper was 374063 yuan / ton, down 1.16% from last Friday; The market price of whiteboard paper was 6440 yuan / ton, down 3.34% from last Friday. In terms of cultural printing paper, on May 20, the market price of double offset paper was 613750 yuan / ton, down 0.20% from last Friday; In terms of household paper, the market price on May 20 was 763333 yuan / ton, up 3.15% from last Friday.
Textile and clothing: on May 20, the price of cotton was 2210154 yuan / ton, down 0.69% from last week; The price of yarn has increased, the price of polyester POY and DTY has increased, and the price of polyester staple fiber has decreased.
Investment strategy:
The 2021 annual report and 2022q1 performance of leading companies in cosmetics and medical beauty sector generally have a high growth rate. In addition to the upcoming summer medical beauty fever, we think we can pay attention to the leading companies in medical beauty sector [ Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) ], [ Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) ]; In the cosmetics sector, it is recommended to pay attention to sensitive muscle faucets [ Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) ].
Risk tip: the risk of repeated epidemic and intensified industry competition.
