This week, the LPR was lower than expected, and the five-year LPR was reduced by 15bps, from 4.60% to 4.45%. Combined with the document “adjusting differentiated housing credit policies” jointly issued by the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on May 15, at present, the lower limit of the first house mortgage interest rate has been reduced to 4.25% and the lower limit of the second-hand house interest rate is 4.45%. On the basis of comprehensively reducing the interest rate of housing loans, the dispatched offices of the people’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission guided the self-discipline mechanism of interest rate pricing in the provincial market in accordance with the principle of “implementing policies according to the city”, and independently determined the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial individual housing loans for the first and second houses in the cities under their jurisdiction according to the changes of the real estate market situation in the cities under their jurisdiction and the regulation requirements of the urban government. The recent combination boxing is actually a further extension of the “23 financial measures” on April 18, strengthening the confidence of supporting the steady growth of real estate this year. With the central bank’s reduction of mortgage interest rates, news of mortgage interest rate cuts also came from Suzhou, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou and other places. In addition, this week, the real estate relaxation policy continued to spread, and the country blossomed at many points. Many core second tier cities such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang intensively introduced the “four limits” easing policy.
Market review: the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index this week was 0.7%, 1.51 percentage points behind the market, ranking 28th among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 84 stocks rose this week, 34 less than last week, and 51 fell. (unless otherwise specified, this week in the report refers to the week from May 14 to May 21).
Transaction of new houses: the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities this week was 2.534 million square meters, down 5.2% month on month and 48.4% year on year. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in sample first tier cities was 323000 square meters, down – 26.3% month on month and – 56.9% year on year; The sample of second tier cities was 1.529 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 5.0% and a year-on-year ratio of – 45.5%; The third tier cities in the sample were 682000 square meters, 9.0% month on month and – 49.6% year-on-year. From the year-on-year perspective of the transaction area of new houses in the cumulative 20 weeks this year, the sample 30 cities totaled 53.089 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 44.5%; The first tier cities accounted for 10.206 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 40.0%; The second tier cities accounted for 30.387 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 39.1%; The third tier cities accounted for 12.496 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 56.6%.
Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 1.13 million square meters, a month on month decrease of 11.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.2%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 258000 square meters, a month on month increase of – 23.8%; The sample of second tier cities is 667000 m3, with a month on month ratio of – 7.6%; The third tier cities in the sample are 205000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 7.9%. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 19.339 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of – 35.4%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 5.704 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 40.4%; The sample of second tier cities was 10.902 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 31.7%; The third tier cities in the sample were 2.732 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 31.7%.
Domestic credit bonds of key companies: the issuance volume increased and the overall bond issuance interest rate decreased. According to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, 13 real estate enterprise credit bonds were issued this week (5.16-5.22), an increase of 4 month on month; The issuance scale totaled 10.65 billion yuan, an increase of 3.604 billion yuan month on month, the total repayment amount was 9.314 billion yuan, an increase of 7.599 billion yuan month on month, the net financing amount was 1.336 billion yuan, and a decrease of 3.995 billion yuan month on month. In terms of financing cost, the bond interest rates of country garden’s 3-year corporate bonds (- 210bp), Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) 3-year corporate bonds (- 145bp) and Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) 5-year corporate bonds (- 100bp) are lower than those of comparable bonds of the same type and period previously issued by the company.
Investment suggestion: maintain the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. We believe that the core point of this round of policy stimulus lies in the demand side (Sales) and enterprise capital side (financing). The tightening of the combination fist should correspond to the relaxation of the combination fist. This year is a large-scale policy easing cycle, which is a beta market. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to: A shares Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Oct a; H shares green city China, China Resources Land, China overseas development, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang. Property management: China Resources Vientiane life, green city service, Zhonghai property, poly property, country garden service, Yongsheng life service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Risk tip: the speed of policy introduction and implementation were lower than expected, the fundamentals continued to decline, triggering a chain reaction, and the repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
