Weekly News Express
Industry news: 1) bureau of Statistics: the added value of wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry increased by 0.5% in April and 9.2% from January to April. 2) Luzhou: by 2025, the city’s Baijiu revenue target will be 150billion yuan and strive to reach 200billion yuan. In 2035, 250000 tons of pure grain solid production capacity will be added, and the revenue will reach 300 billion yuan. 3) In the middle of May, the national total chain price index of Baijiu was 100.13 (+0.13%).
Company news: 1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the 53 degree flying Maotai product of 100ml / bottle will implement the “special goods and special sales” mode on I Maotai platform, and this product is only available for I Maotai; 2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : it is planned to gradually increase the production capacity of 100000 tons of raw wine in the next few years and further consolidate the largest pure grain solid-state fermentation brewing base in China; 3) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) : the project bidding of phase II project in production zone III of the company has been completed; The reconstruction and expansion project of production area 2 is expected to be completed by the end of 2022. 4) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) : it is planned to invest 1 billion yuan to build an industrial park in Longli County, Guizhou Province.
Key information feedback this week
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : on May 19, I Maotai was officially launched. As of May 18, more than 130 million people and 340 million people had participated in the purchase of the four products ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (rare products, retail price: 4599 yuan), 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (year of renyin tiger, retail price: 2499 yuan), 375ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (year of renyin tiger, retail price: 3599 bottles) and Maotai 1935 (retail price: 1188 yuan), More than 1.17 million bottles of products have been put in total, with a total of 560.7 tons. In addition to the above four products, five new products, including Feitian 100ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (exclusive to Maotai, retail price 399 yuan), 43 Degree Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (retail price 1099 yuan for cups), 43 Degree Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (wedding banquet red, retail price 1099 yuan), Maotai Prince wine (Golden prince, retail price 338 yuan), Maotai welcome wine (purple, retail price 218 yuan), are added to form the product matrix of I Maotai, Focus on the brand system of “product price matching, clear level and reasonable gradient”.
Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : Shandong region’s target payment collection in the second quarter is 20%, and the current inventory is about January. 1) At the beginning of this year, more than 1 / 3 of customized wine was cancelled, and the price of the remaining customized wine increased by 50%. 2) New products: Tuopai, a new product planned to be launched in June, has a cellar age of 20 / 30 and a retail price of 168 / 268 yuan. It mainly focuses on wedding banquet, wedding banquet and business entertainment. Intoxicated for 3 years / 6 years / 9 years, the price is 98 / 168 / 268 yuan. Now Linyi, Zaozhuang and other places are promoting, and comprehensive investment promotion began in June. 4) Dragon Boat Festival: each office will do some tasting, marketing and consumer interaction for low-end products (T68 / liuliang).
Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) 1) the epidemic situation in April had a certain impact on Baijiu. The company’s largest sales market is Hunan, which is relatively less affected by the epidemic situation. The overall impact of the epidemic on mobile sales this year is between 5% and 10%. The national inventory sales cycle is about 2.5 months. The overall inventory of internal parameters is relatively benign. In the middle and late May, the dynamic pin of internal parameters has accelerated significantly. 2) At the end of May, we began to promote user education and various conference activities. On the whole, the activities shifted from “big” to “fine”, focusing more on consumers. 3) We will promote the project of building a new production area III and the project of rebuilding the brewing workshop in production area II. After completion, the production capacity will be increased by 12800 tons / year. The project of area III is expected to be completed by the end of 2023 and 2000 tons by the end of 2022. 4) The current three-year term of office and performance appraisal are mainly adopted. 5) The internal reference company operates independently with full support in resources. Hongtan is a large strategic item. At present, the proportion of the whole hongtan is less than 20%. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we will strive to increase the proportion of hongtan to about 30%. The positioning of interior products is to expand the introduction of fragrant taste by consumers, and the price is positioned as the market transaction price of about 200 yuan. 54 degree internal participation will be promoted outside Hunan Province and will be gradually promoted in Hunan Province in the future. 6) Market outside the province: the proportion has reached more than 70%.
Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) : 1) 2022q1 cave reservoir accounts for nearly half, with a growth rate of about 70%. The mainstream products in Hefei are Dong 16, Dong 9 and Dong 20. 2) Markets outside the province focus on cultivating Jiangsu and Shanghai. 3) At present, the company is the main selling holes 6 and 9, and the main pushing holes 16 and 20, cultivating the master version. The master version and dong20 promote the brand, and the walking volume depends on dong6 and 9. 4) Welcome Foundation: jointly initiated by the group company and listed companies, and in charge of Lu’an Civil Affairs Bureau, charitable activities are mainly carried out in Hubei, Henan and Anhui provinces, mainly engaged in medical treatment, education, pension, supporting the army, rural revitalization, etc.
Tianyoude liquor: 1) promote marketing transformation, create a new consumer centered marketing model, and implement the “1 + n” model in sales regions. 2) Guozhide G6 implements the quota price control mode and implements the price margin system; From secondary high-end to high-end. Tianzhide increases brand value, sales volume = number of private circles conversion rate. 3) After the certification of vintage wine, the premium level is increased, which is twice that of ordinary products. 4) Secondary high-end and high-end upward: on the basis of guozhide, there is tianzhide with a price of 1000 yuan, which focuses on consumers and transmits brand value and product value. Go down: the export-oriented series with the third generation gold standard as the core, with a price of 200300 yuan; 100 yuan: Red four-star tianyoude, red five-star tianyoude. 5) Gansu marketing adopts channel mode + high-end group purchase mode around core consumers; Product split layout, divided into less than 100 yuan, more than 100 yuan, as well as the core product line guozhide, export-oriented and star series; Regionally, Gansu is divided into four districts, Lanzhou District, Hexi District I, Hexi District II and Longdong District, which are more refined. 6) The sales expense rate will decrease in 2021: the guiding ideology is to increase efficiency through open source, reduce cost and increase efficiency, reduce expenditure and increase efficiency; The marketing level is the control of channel expenses, and the fixed expenses are switched to variable expenses.
Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) : 1) it is expected that April will be basically flat, may day will also be affected, and sales will improve in May, which is better than April. 2) The second quarter is expected to improve month on month, and the double-digit target of the whole year is expected to be completed. 3) The gross profit margin has room for improvement at this stage, which can be achieved by raising prices and adjusting product structure. At present, the high, middle and low-end structure of soy sauce is 4:5:1, and the target structure is 6:3:1.
Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) : 1) the annual single digit growth target is above. The epidemic has an impact on the sales in April. It is expected to improve in May, and the inventory is at a relatively acceptable level. 2) The expense rate is expected to be basically the same as last year. 3) At present, the price increase is basically transmitted to the terminal. 4) The growth of dealers this year is mainly to fill the blank market in the central and western regions. It is planned to add 300 this year. 5) Oyster sauce and cooking wine can basically maintain a high growth rate.
Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) : 1) it is expected that the revenue growth rate will maintain a good trend in April, continue the good trend in May, and the target of the second quarter is expected to be completed smoothly.
2) The minimum equity incentive increased by more than 15%. 3) The proportion of large b-end is expected to continue to increase. 4) The cost investment is more accurate, and the cost rate is expected to decline.
Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) : 1) melon seed planning: Guokui adopts multiple brands, high-end uses kukuzhen, and cost-effective snacks of different brands. 2) Nut planning: online and offline collaborative development, mainly offline; The main products are daily nuts and roof boxes; In the future, nut online will develop vigorously, and nut is the second curve. 3) Melon seed planning: to grow, we should spread spectrum on the one hand, improve penetration and increase channel terminals on the other hand. 4) Small yellow bag: it is positioned as a billion large items, which belongs to high-end gifts and is made into a large item of daily nuts. 5) Channel strategy: the future channel strategic planning is global, the whole main scene and the whole country; Refinement of offline Ka stores and distribution; Deep cultivation of channels, TOD and breakthrough of new subjects; Breakthroughs in new scenes, such as catering, afternoon tea, etc. 6) Organizationally adjust the business division and transform the category center. 7) New fiscal year plan: focus on Qiaqia nuts and melon seeds, and strengthen the education of melon seeds and nuts; The channel side focuses on millions of terminals and new scenarios tob. 8) Brand: repositioning, born in the sun and younger. Brand investment will continue to increase, continue to operate the whole industry chain, promote brand and youth.
Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) : 1) the Growth Logic of the company is leading + globalization + competence. 2) Table stewed flavor planning: in the top five of table stewed flavor, cooperate with Liao Ji, Lu Jiangnan and a man by means of one control, one participation and one combination. Liao Ji: optimize and refine the community store type, and strive to replicate it this year. South of the Yangtze River: it has maintained positive growth as a whole this year. Aman: more than 200 stores have been opened in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. Hot brine: investment in shengxiangting, supply chain and digital collaboration have been deepened. In the future, we will pay attention to regional brands and new opportunities, and strive to develop the second curve through industry + investment. 3) In 2020, the number of stores will be adjusted to 1 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 0 per year, with a net increase. 4) Ecosystem construction: first, there is still a lot of space for the main business of curve duck neck; The second curve focuses on the layout of industrial capital of bittern, hoping to establish the advantage of Pan bittern industry in about five years; The third curve is a longer time dimension, with investment layout in light catering, condiments and food catering. Focus on the pan halogen flavor in the medium term and the track related to core competence in the long term. 5) The fixed increase has been passed. In the short term, it may solve the capital problem by increasing bank liabilities. 6) Ecosystem collaboration: there is collaboration in procurement, production and cold chain distribution, and the franchise system is doing collaboration one after another.
Haoxiangni Health Food Co.Ltd(002582) : 1) wedding project: Launch wedding products such as happy dates, happy candy and hand gifts online; At the same time, there are personalized customization services. 2) In 2022, it is planned to develop functional products for basic research and intensive processing of jujube liver protection; Qingfeifei has been launched in the early stage, and aifeifei series products (prefabricated meals) will be launched soon. 3) Future development: endogenous line, focusing on the main business of red jujube, increasing the category of health food; Extension line, investment and M & A around the company’s strategy; Investment direction, new consumption, great health, food and medicine homology, etc; The investment target can produce coordinated development with the company in terms of products, channels, brands, management, etc. 4) Dragon Boat Festival activities: the joint celebration of 100 stores for the 30th anniversary of Haoxiangni Health Food Co.Ltd(002582) in all channels. Continue to build high-end Dragon Boat Festival red dates zongzi. 5) Offline: specialty stores, supermarkets, special channels, exports, customer customization (ODM), etc; Specialty stores are the focus, creating a “six in one” light maintenance and living hall, improving the profitability of single stores, and gradually copying and pasting across the country. Online: traditional e-commerce and new social platforms, operating new brands, such as “miss you”, “tree granary”, “small frozen grain”, “our bear child” and other sub brands. New retail platform: diversified consumption scenarios of online shopping malls (such as official wechat applet), takeout and community groups.
Namchow Food Group(Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) : 1) since 2022, due to the rise in the price of raw materials, the company has adjusted the price of baked oil, light cream and imported products in the first quarter and the second quarter respectively. 2) Actively explore cooperation with regional boutiques and large supermarkets, expand the cooperation between bakery Ka and regional leaders, and increase the development of catering and coffee customers. The first production line of Shanghai Nanqiao phase II frozen dough project has been put into operation in the first quarter of 2022, and the second production line is planned to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2022. 3) The actual output in 2021 is 5515 tons, which is close to full load. Shanghai plant phase II project plans to add two new frozen dough production lines. The first production line has been put into operation in the first quarter of this year, the second production line is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter, and the second production line is expected to increase the production capacity by another 6000 tons / year.
Investment view
This week, we investigated and visited Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) and other listed companies. On the whole, with the phased promotion of business and market restoration in Shanghai, the nationwide consumer demand will accelerate the recovery. Baijiu was affected in the second quarter, but it is in a controllable state. At present, the major liquor enterprises have collected or collected the payment in batches in the second quarter. It is expected that the Dragon Boat Festival will achieve partial compensatory consumption, and continue to be optimistic about the rebound of Baijiu; Popular products continued to differentiate, and snack food continued its good growth trend in April in May. Considering the base effect in the same period last year and the accelerated recovery of consumption, the performance elasticity is expected; The condiment sub sector is differentiated. Due to the rise of raw materials and the impact of the epidemic, the catering end of Haitian and Zhongju is still at the bottom, which is expected to be improved month by month in the follow-up. The Sichuan style polyphonic leader Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) may is expected to continue the good growth trend in April, so it is recommended to focus on it; Beer and soft drinks improved significantly month on month in May compared with April. At present, it has entered the peak season, and the recovery of superimposed consumption has accelerated, with a month on month improvement in the second quarter; Halogen products are expected to improve month on month in May compared with April, and the follow-up is expected to improve month by month and quarter by quarter.
On the whole, our view remains unchanged. We firmly believe that the food and beverage sector, especially Baijiu, will give priority to the rebound. We choose two main lines for strong recommendation:
1) for individual stocks that are expected to benefit from the recovery of consumption, Baijiu recommends Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) for mass products. Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) .
2) for individual stocks with certain certainty in the performance of the second quarter, the Baijiu sector recommends Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 7 Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) .
Risk tips
Risk of epidemic fluctuation; Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Recommend the risk that the company’s performance is less than expected; Industry competition risk; Food safety risks; Risk of changes in industrial policies; Consumption tax or production risk; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
