Zhou's view: after the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced that the lower limit of commercial individual housing loan interest rate for the first house was adjusted to no less than 20 basis points lower than the market quotation interest rate of the corresponding term loan, the five-year LPR interest rate was further reduced by 15 Pb. Therefore, the minimum loan interest rate for the first house could be reduced to 4.25%, and the regulation and control of urban policies in various places became more and more frequent; We believe that the further reduction of individual housing loan interest rate is conducive to activating the current commercial housing trading market, and the market that remains depressed is expected to gradually recover. At the same time, the demand suppressed by the epidemic is expected to be released in a centralized manner with the improvement of the epidemic. We are optimistic that the data of real estate chain enterprises will gradually improve in the middle and late May. We suggest paying attention to the opportunity of bottom rebound of the real estate chain, and Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ; Secondly, the wind power bidding has gradually warmed up. The bidding reached more than 10GW in April, and the price of bulk raw materials in the upstream fell, which is conducive to the improvement of the profit of wind power manufacturing. It is suggested to pay attention to the blade leader Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , and the profit of lithium diaphragm business has gradually improved. With the release of new capacity, the profit elasticity is large, and the current undervalued value has a safety margin.
Consumer building materials: the five-year LPR was lowered by 15 BP, and the housing credit policy was further relaxed. After the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced that the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial individual housing loans for the first house was adjusted to not less than the quoted interest rate of the loan market for the corresponding period by 20 basis points, the five-year LPR interest rate was further reduced by 15 PB. Therefore, the minimum interest rate of first house loans can be reduced to 4.25%, and the mortgage interest rate can be reduced from the national level, which complements the substantive relaxation of real estate policies in more than 80 regions since this year, Real estate fundamentals are expected to reach the bottom quickly and stabilize; With the gradual easing of the epidemic, the suppressed demand is expected to be released in a centralized manner. The trend of increasing the concentration of the leading consumer of building materials is determined, and the growth is still stable. The rise of short-term raw materials has brought some pressure on the gross profit margin. However, enterprises actively transmit the cost pressure through price increases and raw material reserves, and the gross profit margin is expected to gradually improve in the second half of the year. Waterproof materials (focusing on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ) and fire hydrants with rapidly increasing market share ( Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ) are preferred throughout the construction cycle and catalyzed by industry standards; The second is the pipe faucet ( Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ), the ceramic tile faucet ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ), and the gypsum board ( Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ) benefiting from the completion cycle.
Cement: in April, the cement output hit a new low in the same period of nearly a decade, waiting for the release of demand after the improvement of the epidemic situation. In April, the monthly output of cement was 195 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, which was the lowest level in the same period in recent ten years. It was mainly caused by repeated epidemics in many places and strict control, resulting in delayed construction and poor transportation; From late May, the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta has eased, and the demand has recovered month on month. We still need to wait for the full resumption of work after the elimination of the epidemic situation. We believe that the epidemic situation is the biggest variable affecting the cement demand at present. Affected by the high inventory, many places have also launched the peak shifting production plan in May to reduce the pressure on the supply side. Recently, the regulatory authorities have notified the local authorities to further speed up the issuance of special bonds. The new special bonds in 2022 must be basically issued by the end of June, and the implementation of key projects such as water conservancy, railway and highway will be accelerated. At the same time, the real estate will be implemented due to the city, Substantial relaxation will be carried out in many places, the interest rate at the house purchase end will be further reduced, and the real estate demand is expected to hit the bottom and rebound; The real estate and infrastructure chain is still an important part of stabilizing the economy. The epidemic has delayed but will not be absent. The subsequent suppressed demand is expected to be released intensively. The cement price will usher in a new round of upward movement, and the cement sector with undervalued value and high dividend will still benefit the most. It is suggested to pay attention to the faucet Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) and the elastic subject Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Glass fiber: wind power bidding has warmed up, focusing on the structural opportunities of glass fiber. Affected by the epidemic situation in China in the short term, the logistics and transportation are not smooth, the inventory of enterprises has increased, and the prices of some roving have fallen slightly. At present, the mainstream tax inclusive price of 2400tex winding direct yarn is 57006000 yuan / ton; The mainstream transaction price of electronic yarn ranges from 87009100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of electronic cloth remains at 3.6-3.8 yuan / meter, which is stable after the price rise. We believe that roving demand remains strong, and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles supports the strong demand for thermoplastic yarn in 2022; The installed capacity of wind power will gradually pick up in 2022. From January to march of 22, China's wind power increased by 24.7gw, while the single month bidding in April has reached more than 10GW. The annual bidding volume is expected to continue to maintain high growth. The pick-up of wind power will drive the demand of upstream and downstream industrial chains and the demand for high-end products of the industry; According to the tracked industrial production expansion plan, in 2022, the new supply is limited, the supply and demand of the industry remain matched, and the high outlook of the industry continues or exceeds expectations. The performance of the leading enterprises in the first quarter exceeded expectations, which reflects the high prosperity of the industry. At present, the glass fiber leaders with underestimated value and performance support can be used as the choice of defense and counterattack (it is suggested to pay attention to China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ).
Glass: demand recovers slowly and inventory pressure appears. The demand of glass enterprises has continued to rise by less than - 5% since the epidemic, which is mainly due to the strict control of the price of glass enterprises since December. We believe that the current high prices of soda ash and fuel have further raised the production costs of enterprises. Under the support of costs, the downward space of prices is limited; The epidemic affects demand recovery and logistics transportation. On the policy side, local governments continue to relax their real estate policies. The effect of real estate policies due to urban implementation may gradually appear with the improvement of the epidemic. The orders postponed since the second half of last year may be released in a centralized manner. It is optimistic that the volume and price of glass will rise in a new round after the improvement of the epidemic; From a macro perspective, the demand for real estate completion remains resilient, with a real estate sales area of more than 1.7 billion square meters in 18-21 years. With the arrival of the housing delivery cycle and the background of guaranteed housing delivery, new construction accelerates the transmission of support demand to completion; At the same time, the industrial chain extension of leading enterprises is gradually emerging, the proportion of growth businesses is gradually increasing, and the periodic fluctuation is gradually smoothed (it is recommended to pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , CSG A and Xinyi Glass).
Risk warning: the investment in fixed assets is lower than expected; The aggravation of trade conflict leads to the obstruction of sales volume of export enterprises; The margin of environmental protection supervision is relaxed, and the supply contraction is lower than expected; The sharp rise in the price of raw materials has brought cost pressure.
