Zhou Du's view: this Friday, the one-year LPR was reduced by 15bp, the largest single decline in the five-year period after LPR restructuring; Chengdu, Hainan, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Dalian and other places have successively issued documents to support rigid and improving needs, and the subsequent improvement of local policies is expected to continue. With the development of policies and the resonance of recovery after the epidemic, we believe that the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter are an important observation window period for the stabilization of the property market. In the second half of the year, the industry is expected to gradually usher in the honeymoon period of policy easing and sales recovery, and the valuation of the sector is expected to be gradually repaired. The development sector is mainly concerned about: one is the relaxation of short-term benefit policies and the improvement of gross profit margin at the land acquisition end, strong operating and high credit enterprises that are expected to seize market share in the medium and long term, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Shenzhen Tagen Group Co.Ltd(000090) , etc; One is the subject matter of policy game elasticity with certain support for Fundamentals, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , etc. The valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low. With the deregulation of policies and the improvement of real estate enterprise funds, it is expected to bring high-quality property enterprise valuation repair. Attention is paid to country garden service, poly property, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , xinchengyue service, Xingsheng commerce, etc.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) the five-year LPR was lowered by 15bp, and the mortgage interest rate accelerated downward; 2) Local property market policy adjustment continued.
Market operation monitoring: 1) new house transactions increased slightly month on month, and short-term pressure still exists. 32000 new houses were sold this week, up 0.3% month on month; 14000 second-hand houses were sold, down 10.8% month on month. On the first 20 days of May, the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 53.6% year-on-year, which was narrower than that in April 2pct. With the intensive introduction of local policies, the confidence of house purchase is expected to be gradually reshaped. However, due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control and policy time lag in the short term, the transaction is still under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In April 2022, among the transactions of commercial houses in 32 cities, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 1.2pct to 81.3% month on month. 3) Inventories fell month on month and tended to decline steadily in the short term. The inventory in 16 cities was 102.37 million square meters, down 0.5% month on month. Under the pressure of capital and real estate market, real estate enterprises tend to de convert the existing inventory, the superposition of the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the project and promotion progress, and the short-term inventory scale may decline steadily. 4) The land transaction and premium rate rebounded, and the proportion of the second and third tier increased. Last week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 28.979 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 17.706 million square meters, up 78.6% and 2.5% month on month; The transaction premium rate was 3%, up 1.9pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 3.2%, 31% and 65.8% respectively, with a month on month decrease of 21.7pct, an increase of 10.3pct and an increase of 11.4pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: 8.05 billion yuan of domestic real estate bonds were issued this week, an increase of 2.05 billion yuan month on month; The issuance of overseas bonds was 630 million yuan, an increase of 630 million yuan month on month; The issuance interest rate of key real estate enterprises is 3.1% - 9.75%, and most of the comparable issuance interest rates are lower than the previous time. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 2.19 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 720 million yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector rose 0.57% this week, underperforming CSI 300 (2.23%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 12.65 times, and the valuation is 79.64% in the last five years.
Risk tips: 1) the timeliness of policy improvement is lower than the expected risk; 2) The fermentation and chain reaction of individual real estate enterprises' liquidity problems exceed the expected risks; 3) The short-term fluctuation of the industry exceeds the expected risk.
