Market review: affected by the marginal improvement of the supply side, the auto sector rose this week. This week (5.16-5.20), the overall SW automobile sector was + 4.42%, ranking 4 / 31. SW passenger car segment + 5.78%, SW commercial vehicle + 9.63%, SW auto parts + 2.98%, SW auto service + 3.54%, SW motorcycle and others + 4.38%. From the perspective of valuation level, the overall PE of Shenwan automobile sector is 30.1 times, and the current overall PE of automobile sector is 77.8% of the past five years. The PE of auto parts sub segment is 27.3 times, accounting for 77.5% of the past five years.
Recent situation of the industry: from May 9 to 15, 236000 passenger cars were wholesale, a year-on-year decrease of 29%, an increase of 21% over last week and an increase of 47% over the same period last month; The retail sales of passenger cars was 230000, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, a month on week increase of 3% and a month on month increase of 26%. Steel, aluminum, copper and other raw materials and freight prices are still high.
The resumption of work will be promoted, the terminal will be warmed up, and additional sectors will continue to be allocated. With the resumption of normal operation in some areas, the average daily retail sales of narrow passenger cars in the second week of May was 33000, an increase of 26% month on month compared with the second week of April, and the terminal has warmed up. With the recovery of Changchun’s automobile manufacturing capacity, Jilin’s sales volume in the first two weeks of May increased by 179% and 81% respectively compared with the previous week. Recently, policies such as automobile going to the countryside, replacing old ones with new ones and local subsidies have been introduced one after another. From the latest catalogue of vehicle purchase tax exemption, technology has improved rapidly and new forces have entered more. Various policies help the industry develop well, and it is suggested to continue to allocate more sectors.
Investment suggestion: electrification and intellectualization are still the general trend of the industry. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to three main lines: 1 electrification & lightweight: the boom of new energy demand is determined and the penetration rate continues to increase. For suggestions and concerns: followingthe attention of the following following: forthe 35 · etc; Intellectualization: intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving are accelerated, and the intelligent configuration of new cars is continuously improved. It is suggested to pay attention to: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc; Supply improvement: with the resumption of work, the supply margin will improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely motor, Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , etc. The worst time of the industry has passed, and the marginal improvement continues. Pay attention to the bottom allocation opportunity of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) .
Risk tip: the industry’s terminal sales volume is less than expected, the manufacturer’s R & D or new car release progress is less than expected, the upstream raw material supply is insufficient or the price rise leads to the decline of industry profits, etc
