Breeding sector: 1) live pigs: during the week, the pig price rose month on month, and the loss state of the industry was further narrowed. In April, the production capacity was reduced by 0.2%, so it is suggested to select the leader. On May 13, 2022, the average price of pigs in 22 provinces and cities was 15.20/kg, with a weekly increase of 1.40% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.41%; By April 2022, the number of fertile sows in China was 41.773 million, down 0.2% month on month and 8.5% compared with the peak in June 2021. As of May 13, 2022, the profit of outsourcing piglet breeding was 31.16 yuan / head, turning losses into profits month on month, and the loss of self breeding was 175.24 yuan / head. As of May 20, the price of binary sows was 33.68 yuan / kg, with a slight increase of 0.15% on a weekly basis and a year-on-year decrease of 56.29%. As of May 13, the price of piglets in 22 provinces and cities rose to 32.79 yuan / kg, with a weekly increase of 4.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 61.57%. The recent rise of pig price is catalyzed by multiple reasons: ① the supply side is close to the time when the slaughter volume reaches the peak and falls, and the price change is sensitive; ② The epidemic situation leads to the obstruction of transportation and passive barrier pressing; ③ Recently, the situation of secondary fattening, slaughter traders hoarding and outsourcing piglets has increased significantly; ④ Guangdong banned the transportation of live pigs from May, which had a certain impact on regional supply. The demand side is controlled by the epidemic situation, and the demand for material hoarding is “not light in the off-season”. The rapid rise of piglet prices reflects the consistency of the industry, which is optimistic that the price will warm up in the second half of the year, while the price of binary sows is still low and stable, which reflects that the industry is still hesitant about the market in 2023. In the follow-up, with the relief of transportation obstruction and the secondary fattening, the actual listing volume may still fluctuate, but the overall listing downward trend will not be changed; The demand side may gradually warm up in the second half of the year. In the medium term, the mismatch between supply and demand will still exist, but the price center supported by the downward trend of the supply side may be higher than that in the first half of the year. Industry losses have narrowesignificantly narrowedown the industry losses, or delayed the process of capacity de making. But when the pig price is at the cost of the industry, the capacity de making is still going. We think we should choose the leading enterprises with plenty of funds, with the focus on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) \ \yes. 2) Poultry: the price of white chicken rose slightly month on month, while the price of yellow chicken continued to rise. Recently, affected by multiple factors such as the reduction of chicken seedling supply in the market and the increase of transportation costs, the price of wool chicken and chicken seedling is mainly rising. The introduction of avian influenza in the United States may affect the industry, and the supply of subsequent grandparents and parents may be reduced. As of May 20, 2022, the average price in the main production area is 9.05 yuan / kg, with a weekly increase of 0.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.52%. The average price of high-end chicken and medium speed chicken was + 19% / + 7.47% / week, which was higher than that of high-end chicken and medium speed chicken respectively, and the average price of chicken was + 20% / + 4.47% / week, which was higher than that of high-end chicken and medium speed chicken respectively. The tight supply pattern of yellow chicken industry remains unchanged, and the inventory of parents in production continues to decline slightly month on month recently. It is expected that the boom will continue in the medium term. After the covid-19 epidemic control is loose, the demand will warm up to form price support. It is optimistic about the industry leader with good cost control ability and growth, while white chicken is optimistic about the industry leader with significant breeding advantages. Key recommendations: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , it is suggested to pay attention to: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) . 3) Beef cattle breeding: in September 2020, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the high-quality development of animal husbandry, which put forward the goal of maintaining the annual self-sufficiency rate of beef and mutton at about 85%, with a large gap between supply and demand. Pay attention to the opportunities of beef cattle breeding industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) .
Animal protection sector: breeding boom or trend recovery, pay attention to the layout opportunities on the left side of animal protection. Recently, the pig price has warmed up, and we expect the medium-term prosperity or trend to pick up, and the demand for animal insurance products may reverse in the face of difficulties, while the industry β The logic is smooth. It is recommended to actively pay attention to the layout opportunities on the left. 1) Vaccine: policies promote the market-oriented development of vaccine products; 2) Chemical drugs: the “Prohibition” of feed and large-scale breeding increase the demand for high-efficiency therapeutic chemical drugs, and the new GMP standard may significantly promote the industry concentration. In the medium and long term, industry leaders with all-round advantages such as joint research and development of front-end scientific research institutes + industry-leading production process & production capacity + excellent market-oriented sales capacity are expected to make full profits. Key recommendations: China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) – market seedlings and chemical drugs support high growth against the trend, α Attributes are continuously verified, and attention is recommended: Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , Hvsen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300871) , Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) .
Seed industry sector: the importance of food security continues to increase, and attention is paid to the long-term layout opportunities of seed industry. Affected by the international situation and climate factors, international food prices continued to fluctuate at a high level, and the importance of China’s food security and seed industry revitalization continued to rise. In recent years, industry policies have been issued intensively to encourage R & D and innovation in the seed industry, and the competition pattern of the industry is expected to be continuously optimized. In the future, the commercialization of transgenic breeding will bring industry expansion, with long-term layout opportunities, and industry leaders with advantages in large varieties and R & D and breeding technology are expected to benefit. It is suggested to pay attention to: Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) .
Risk tips: sudden epidemics or natural disasters, repeated covid-19 epidemics, and the implementation progress of industrial policies is less than expected.
