Market Review
The auto sector rose 4.42%, the CSI 300 index rose 2.23% in the same period, and the auto industry was 2.19 percentage points ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the perspective of sector ranking, the growth rate of the automobile industry last week ranked fourth among the 31 sectors of Shenwan, at the forefront of the sector. The new energy vehicle index rose 5.93%. Among the sub sectors, the rise and fall of passenger vehicles / commercial trucks / commercial buses / auto parts / auto services this week were 5.78% / 8.41% / 12.73% / 2.98% / 3.54% respectively.
Market hot spot
The Shanghai epidemic prevention and control headquarters plans to speed up the full resumption of work and production from June 1. On May 20, the Shanghai epidemic prevention and control headquarters issued the implementation plan for the city to continue to consolidate the achievements of epidemic prevention and control and return to work and production in an orderly manner. The plan specifies that Shanghai will promote the resumption of work and production in three stages: the first stage, from May 20 to May 21, will focus on restoring the industrial chain and supply chain; The second stage, from May 22 to May 31, will expand the resumption of work and production; The third stage is to accelerate the full resumption of work and production after June 1.
Byd Company Limited(002594) Ocean series adds a new member seal. On May 20 Byd Company Limited(002594) released a new car seal, with a pre-sale price of RMB 2128289800. This model is first equipped with CTB battery body integration technology, ITAC technology, rear drive / 4WD power structure, front double wishbone + rear five link chassis suspension. As of 22:00 on May 20, 22637 vehicles had been pre sold.
This week, Shaanxi, Shandong and Shenzhen introduced policies to promote automobile consumption. On May 18, Shaanxi provincial government issued a three-year action plan to further stimulate consumption vitality and promote consumption growth, support consumers to buy new cars or “trade in the old for the new”, and regularly issue automobile consumption vouchers based on China’s online payment platform. Qingdao, Shandong Province, will invest 267 million yuan from May 21 to October 31 and issue more than 3 million consumption vouchers covering automobiles, household appliances, department stores and catering. You can enjoy a one-time subsidy of 3 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan for buying a car. Nanshan District of Shenzhen launched a special promotion activity for automobile consumption, and plans to issue automobile consumption vouchers with a total amount of 150 million yuan from May 20 to August 31. The activity is aimed at fuel and new energy vehicles above national six. A single user can apply for a consumption coupon of up to 55000 yuan.
This week’s view: the industry has entered the recovery trilogy and attaches importance to the Q2 configuration window
The industry has entered the trilogy of recovery. The dawn of full resumption of work and production is in sight + the introduction of consumption incentives in many places + cost easing. The sector is expected to meet the reversal of fundamentals in the second half of the year. At the supply level, the inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai is expected to become stronger. The Shanghai epidemic prevention and control headquarters plans to speed up the full resumption of work and production from June 1, and the dawn of the full resumption of work and production of the industry is in sight. At the demand level, under the impact of the epidemic, the sales volume hit the bottom in April. It was confirmed that the production and sales gradually recovered in May, and the purchase restriction policy was relaxed + the consumption promotion policy came as promised, which is to support our confidence in the recovery of automobile consumption after the epidemic. In late April, Guangdong, Liaoning, Jiangxi, Shandong, Tianjin, Hainan, Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Chongqing and other provinces and cities across the country issued automobile consumption promotion policies. On the whole, we judge the recovery rhythm of automobile production and sales as follows: production and sales gradually recovered in May, but still declined year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate in June is expected to return to positive. In the third quarter, we think the overall data will be bright, because the third quarter of last year was the most serious period of core shortage, so the sales base of last year was low, and there was a natural low base effect in the third quarter of this year (the base of 21q3 / 22q2 is low), Considering the production and sales compensation of low base and Q2 loss, the neutral judgment of Q3 wholesale sales is 540W (YoY + 11.3%, QoQ + 35%). On the cost side, in 2021, under the multiple pressures of raw material price rise, RMB appreciation and freight, sector profits were under pressure. Since March, bulk prices such as aluminum prices have continued to decline and foreign currencies have appreciated rapidly. The cost side pressure factors are easing and reversing. To sum up, we judge that the fundamentals of Q3 sector are expected to reverse!
Pay attention to Q2 important configuration window period! At present, the PE (TTM) of the sector is the median in recent three years. The pessimistic expectation response in the early stage is sufficient. The bottom of the sector has passed in the short term, the value of medium and long-term dimensional configuration is prominent, and the upward trend of the sector under the rise of domestic products and electric intelligence remains unchanged! We judge that the industry is in the recovery trilogy. In the early stage of the market, the main transaction is the resumption of work and production after the oversold, while the beta market, which began with the turning point of sales data, may not have been opened. We pay attention to the Q2 configuration window period!
Recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , and focus on ideal car, Xiaopeng car and Weilai car;
The repair of parts and components after epidemic disease focuses on four main lines:
[Tesla industrial chain] the epidemic in Shanghai caused pressure in April, and the follow-up production and marketing compensation is relatively certain. It is recommended that Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) .
[the heaviest link of assets in the export chain] foreign currency appreciation + strong rebound in profits after downstream repair. It is recommended that Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (integrated die casting) + Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) (cabin Intelligence) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight).
[intellectualization] determine the main line, recommend Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , and pay attention to Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) .
[localization of passenger car seats] recommended Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations
In the field of complete vehicles, the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. In the field of parts and components, with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine plants, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The accelerated iteration of models in the era of electric intelligence has greatly improved the requirements of car enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts and components enterprises. The previously solidified zero adjustment relationship is expected to be broken, the domestic parts and components industry chain rises with the trend, and the accelerated promotion of electric intelligence has given birth to a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends, We are optimistic about the rise of domestic products and electric intelligence, and continue to focus on four subdivided areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats.
Passenger cars: mainly recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile (H); It is suggested to pay attention to ideal, Xiaopeng and Weilai.
Parts and components of the ”s Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) pull industry chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (testing), Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) (lightweight & Tesla supply chain), etc., focusing on Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD) Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
The epidemic eased less than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
