The terminal price of thermal coal fluctuated in the short term, and the price of producing area continued to rise steadily. As of May 20, the pithead price of Shaanxi Yulin power lump coal (q6000) was 1020.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The pit mouth price of sticky coal (including tax) (q5500) in the southern suburb of Datong was 910.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; Inner Mongolia Dongsheng large clean coal truck sector price (q5500) was 855.0 yuan / ton, up 9.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis.
The overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao railway has been completed, and the subsequent railway shipping capacity has been enhanced. This week, there were 5291 arriving trains on Qinhuangdao Port Railway, with a decrease of 13.01% on a weekly basis; Qinhuangdao Port handled 435000 tons, down 8.61% from the previous week. As of May 20, the inventory of the four major ports around the Bohai Sea (Qinhuangdao port, Huanghua port, Caofeidian port and east port of Jingtang Port) was 11.53 million tons, with an increase of 220000 tons, 153.0 ships in Anchorage, an increase of 50.00 ships, a cargo ship ratio (inventory to ship ratio) of 7.5 and a decrease of 3.44.
Coal consumption in coastal provinces is weak, and the overall available days are rising steadily. As of May 19, the coal inventory of the eight coastal provinces was 30.24 million tons, with a weekly increase of 238000 tons (0.79%), the daily consumption was 1.534 million tons, a weekly decrease of 127000 tons / day (- 7.65%), the available days were 19.7 days and a weekly increase of 1.60 days. As of May 20, the market price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (q5500) produced in Shanxi was 1205.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. International coal price: as of May 18, the FOB spot price of Newcastle newc5500 kcal thermal coal was US $205.25/ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The spot price of ara6000 kcal thermal coal was 353.75 US dollars / ton, up 33.7 US dollars / ton on a weekly basis; Richard RB’s FOB spot price of thermal coal was US $277.3/t, up US $16.05/t on a weekly basis. As of May 19, the active contract of thermal coal futures fell by 3.2 yuan / ton to 826.0 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week, and the futures discount was 379.0 yuan / ton.
Coke: the coke price has been lowered in three rounds, and the profit of coke enterprises is under pressure. As of May 20, 2022, Fenwei CCI Luliang quasi primary metallurgical coke reported 3160 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, a decrease of 15.96% on a monthly basis and a year-on-year increase of 26.39%. Port index: CCI Rizhao quasi primary metallurgical coke reported 3400 yuan / ton, which was flat on a weekly basis, down 15.42% on a monthly basis and up 26.86% on a year-on-year basis. Due to the weak downstream economy, the profit level of steel mills is poor and the demand for coke is low; Due to three consecutive rounds of price cuts, the profits of coke enterprises have been greatly compressed, and the overall operating rate has fallen.
Coking coal: purchasing sentiment is low and prices continue to decline. As of May 20, CCI Shanxi low sulfur index was 2900 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 540 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; CCI Shanxi high sulfur index was 2723 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 305 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; Lingshi fat coal index was 2600 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 350 yuan / ton on a monthly basis. Due to the insufficient demand of the downstream coke market, the procurement rhythm of coke enterprises is cautious in the region, and the coking coal price continues to callback.
We believe that at present, we are in the early stage of a new round of upward cycle of coal economy, and the fundamentals, policies and companies resonate. At this stage, the allocation of coal sector is at the right time. On May 17, the national development and Reform Commission held a press conference in May, at which it was again emphasized that coal should be used as the “anchor” to ensure the supply and price of energy. “To coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, we must continue to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of energy. This needs to be established first and then broken. Only by ensuring security first can we promote the transformation, and the rice bowl of energy must be firmly in the hands of the Chinese people.” In the short term, the short-term influencing factors of coal price at the current time point are concentrated, the market view and emotional game are intensified, and the coal price fluctuates in the future. However, from the perspective of medium and long-term price trend, due to excessive currency, the price inflation trend of energy products is “unstoppable”. Looking back on history, the total energy consumption of human society continues to rise, and the emergence of new forms of energy does not hinder the growth of demand for traditional energy; Looking forward to the future, the rigidity of global coal demand appears, the coal demand of developed countries rebounds from the bottom, and the power consumption of South and Southeast Asian countries such as India, Vietnam and Indonesia is in the stage of rapid growth. In the context of upgrading the industrial structure and improving the living standards of residents, China’s energy and power consumption are gradually decoupled from GDP and rise independently. With the increase of the proportion of new power sources such as wind and light in the overall power system, it is more difficult to absorb, and the supply of new energy is difficult to cover the huge increment of energy demand in the medium and short term. On the supply side, under the guidance of the global low-carbon transformation policy, the willingness to invest in coal production capacity is insufficient. Most coal enterprises prefer to seek to adjust the financial structure and seek business transformation rather than increase the coal supply, that is, the coal supply may “reach the peak” earlier than the demand, which means that the coal price will be in a high boom stage in the next 5-10 years. At present, the valuation of the coal sector is still at the historical bottom in the past 10 years. Considering the attributes of high performance, high cash and high dividend, and superimposing the characteristics of high boom, long cycle and high barrier, the coal sector will usher in a historic market with double rise of performance and valuation. Investment rating: Based on the above, we continue to look at the coal sector in an all-round way and continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. Focus on two main lines from bottom to top: first, Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) etc. with large endogenous and epitaxial growth space, excellent resource endowment and excellent corporate governance; Second, high-quality coking companies Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , etc. with special scarcity of global resources and growth space.
Risk factors: coal mine safety production accidents in key companies; The downstream power consumption sector continues to be large; The macro economy has fallen sharply.
