1 [Key words this week]: demand recovery is expected to increase, and the price of lithium carbonate in China has stabilized; The price of sqm has accelerated; The consideration for the auction of single ton resources of Yajiang snowway mining reached a new high; Pilbara expects another lithium concentrate auction next week
\u3000\u30002. Market review: demand recovery is expected to increase and commodity prices stabilize: 1) for lithium, the downstream inquiry has improved. This week, China’s battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.2% to 476000 yuan / ton, the quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide stabilized to 491000 yuan / ton, the price of lithium concentrate increased by 3.3%, and the price of lithium carbonate futures in Wuxi electronic disk increased by 4.8%; 2) Rare earth: downstream procurement has increased, and the price is at a high level. This week, the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China rose by 1.6% to 930000 yuan / ton; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotation of dysprosium oxide decreased by 1.5%, and the quotation of terbium oxide decreased by 2.0%; 3) The quotation of cobalt, MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) is stable to $40 / pound; 4) Nickel: the low inventory of the industrial chain continued. Under the short-term capital game, the fluctuation of nickel price increased, and LME increased by 6.7% month on month. 5) Stock market: this week, the Shenwan nonferrous metals index rose 6.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.68%. In terms of specific segments, the gold sector rose 1.7%, the industrial metal sector rose 5.96%, the lithium sector rose 9.73%, and the rare earth permanent magnet sector rose 4.93%.
\u3000\u30003. New energy vehicle industry chain: the sales of electric vehicles weakened in April, Shanghai promoted the resumption of work and production, and the demand side is expected to recover gradually. 1) Shanghai enterprises have resumed production in succession: Shanghai has promoted the resumption of production of more than 3000 “white list” enterprises in three batches, with a resumption rate of more than 70%, of which the resumption rate of the first batch of 666 enterprises has exceeded 95%. Among them, SAIC passenger car, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM and Tesla have fully resumed work. This week, Shanghai Customs further proposed 12 measures to support enterprises to expand their resumption of work and production and ensure the safety and stability of the industrial chain supply chain. 2) Affected by the epidemic, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China weakened in April: according to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in April reached 312000 / 299000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 43.9% / 44.6% and a month on month decrease of 33% and 38.3% respectively. 3) Affected by the epidemic, the output of power batteries decreased month on month in April: in April 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output was 28.96 GWH, with a year-on-year increase of 124.1% and a month on month decrease of 26.1%; The total loading capacity of power battery was 13.27gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 58.1%, a month on month decrease of 38%, and the production loading ratio further widened to 2.18.
\u3000\u30004. Lithium: the expectation of demand recovery is enhanced, and the price stops falling and stabilizes. 1) On the price side, the downstream inquiry has improved, and the industry is generally optimistic about the future market. This week, China’s battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.2% to 476000 yuan / ton, the quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide stabilized to 491000 yuan / ton, the price of lithium concentrate increased by 3.3%, and the profits of enterprises purchasing lithium concentrate raw materials further narrowed. 2) Supply side: due to the gradual increase of temperature in Qinghai, the output of lithium carbonate this week was 5220 tons, an increase of 2.15% month on month; The output of lithium hydroxide was 4116 tons, up 17.3% month on month. 3) On the inventory side, the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.12% month on month from 5049 to 5055 tons; Lithium hydroxide inventory increased by 2.42% month on month from 745 to 763 tons. 4) On China’s resource side, the auction of 542857% equity of Yajiang snowway mining (the source of the auction equity is Chengdu Xingneng new materials Co., Ltd.) was officially concluded on May 21. The final transaction price reached 2 billion yuan, equivalent to 596 times the starting price. The debt shared according to the equity ratio was about 850 million yuan, and the final transaction consideration was about 2.85 billion yuan. The consideration for a single ton of resources is about 7288 yuan / ton LCE, setting a new high for the consideration of the subject matter of lithium ore transaction. 5) The price of lithium at the overseas end accelerated. The single ton price of lithium carbonate at sqm in the first quarter reached US $38000 / ton (equivalent to RMB 270000 including tax), up 161% month on month, and the price showed an accelerated upward trend. 5. Rare earth permanent magnet: the industry pattern has been reshaped, and the price has stabilized and rebounded. 1) On the spot side, with the gradual repair of demand expectations and the increase of inquiry orders at the beginning of this week, the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China rose by 1.6% to 930000 yuan / ton; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotation of dysprosium oxide decreased by 1.5% and terbium oxide decreased by 2.0%. 2) On the supply side, Myanmar is still closed, and the medium and heavy rare earths are mainly consumed inventory. The operating rate of praseodymium and neodymium oxide enterprises has not changed significantly. The weekly output has decreased from 1355 to 1330 tons, down 1.85% month on month. 3) On the inventory side, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased from 3291 to 3260 tons, down 0.94% month on month.
\u3000\u30006. Cobalt: both supply and demand are weak, and the price is weak. 1) On the price side, the quotation of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) this week has stabilized to $40 / pound, and the tax included price of metal cobalt in China has reached more than 510000 yuan / ton; China’s metal cobalt, cobalt sulfate and cobalt trioxide decreased by 3.8%, 4.9% and 5.3% respectively. 2) On the demand side, affected by the high price, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream market of electrolytic cobalt. The high fluctuation of nickel price also has an impact on the demand for ternary materials, and the downstream is dominated by rigid demand procurement; 3) On the supply side, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials in April was 7500 metal tons, a month on month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 28%. The transportation in South Africa was blocked by the flood, the expected contraction of cobalt intermediate imports in June was enhanced, and the cobalt inventory remained at a very low level, showing a situation of weak supply and demand.
\u3000\u30007. Nickel: in the short term, under the capital game, the nickel price fluctuates greatly; In the long run, nickel prices return to fundamentals. China’s pure nickel warehouse receipts and inventories are at a low level, and China’s stainless steel and ternary battery industry is expected to resume production. This week, LME nickel closed at US $27875 / ton, up 6.7% month on month; SHFE nickel closed at 210000 yuan / ton, up 5.08%.
\u3000\u30008. Investment suggestion: maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry. The upstream raw materials of new energy, such as rare earth magnetic materials, lithium cobalt copper foil and aluminum foil, have a weak supply and demand situation in a short time due to epidemic, logistics and other factors. Shanghai plans to orderly promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises, and the landscape of the industrial chain may be gradually repaired. The general direction of the medium and long-term three-year boom upward cycle will not change, and the direction of the industrial boom is the most clear. The core standard of the core standard is the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: 002 ” ;, Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , etc.
\u3000\u30009. Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation, industrial policy change risk, epidemic aggravation risk, new energy vehicle sales less than expected risk, and the premise assumption of supply and demand calculation less than expected risk.
