Core view of this week: the electronics industry index rose by 4.38% this week. Of the 456 targets, 394 rose throughout the week, 260 rose more than 3 points per week, 151 rose more than 5 points per week, 46 rose more than 10 points per week, 54 fell throughout the week, 14 fell more than 2 points per week, and 8 fell more than 3 points per week.
This week, the market continues to rebound, and the electronic sector is also linked to return blood. With the release of the first quarterly report of key manufacturers such as Xiaomi, the loss performance of Xiaomi’s first quarterly report also truthfully reflects the current industry status: supply chain problems, repeated epidemics, and the global economic situation have an impact on the supply and demand of the smartphone market. According to recent media reports, Chinese mobile phone brands such as Xiaomi, oppo and vivo have asked upstream suppliers to reduce orders. Xiaomi originally targeted to produce 200 million mobile phones in 2022. At present, it has said that it will lower the repair to 160 million to 180 million, and there is still the possibility of further lower repair. The decline of consumer electronics in the whole year is difficult to change. Therefore, we define that the current sector is still a “rebound”, there is no support for the improvement of fundamentals, and maintain the “neutral” rating of the industry.
From the recently released April platform supply chain data, the overall export data of the platform supply chain represented by notebooks and mobile phones decreased by about 30% month on month compared with March, and also decreased by about 20% year-on-year. However, the sales of related industrial chains also decreased significantly month on month due to the adjustment of channel inventory and the continuous low price of large products such as panels. At present, the only advantage of electronic manufacturing related sectors is the exchange rate: the continuous depreciation of RMB has benefited many companies with us dollar as the main settlement mode, and it is possible to hedge the adverse impact of the epidemic in the second quarter. Therefore, the performance of such companies in the second quarter of the supply chain is still commendable, such as Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603890) and so on.
In the semiconductor sector, with the disappearance of the valuation boom in the primary market, the short-term expectation of the secondary market to raise the valuation is facing considerable pressure. In the short term, there are still shortages of some varieties, but the price increase effect has obviously converged compared with last year. Moreover, some bulk varieties have clearly entered the de inventory trend last year. It is difficult for system end and terminal manufacturers to tolerate further price increases of IC parts and components in the current market background. Even structural out of stock chips such as DDI and PMIC are hard to maintain. Therefore, we believe that the rebound space of the overall sector needs to be measured relatively calmly. The increment reflected in the subdivided field of semiconductor consumables in the first quarter came as scheduled. The epidemic, customs closure, bulk cost rise and capacity release are important supports for the growth performance of this sector.
Industry gathering: icinsights recently updated the McLean report, paying special attention to the trend of Chinese market and semiconductor R & D expenditure. The report distinguishes between “integrated circuit market in Chinese Mainland” and “integrated circuit production in China”. Icinsights said that Chinese Mainland has been the largest consumer of integrated circuits since 2005. In 2021, IC production in Chinese Mainland accounted for 16.7% of its total output of $186.5 billion, up from 12.7% in 201110 years ago.
On May 18, the latest data from canalys, a research organization, showed that TWS shipments increased steadily in the first quarter of 2022, reaching 68 million. Among them, apple won the title with 32% market share, an increase of 14% compared with the first quarter of 2021.
According to jiwei.com, according to Nikkei Asia, Xiaomi, oppo and vivo, China’s three major mobile phone brands, have informed suppliers that they will cut orders by about 20% in the next few quarters.
Key recommended stocks and logic this week: the targets of our key stock pool include: Shenzhen Fluence Technology Plc(300647) , Jilin Oled Material Tech Co.Ltd(688378) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Tdg Holding Co.Ltd(600330) , Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) .
Risk tips: (1) systemic risk caused by the unexpected decline of the market; (2) Focus on the uncertainty risk of promoting relevant matters of the company.
