One week resumption:
Power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) rose 7.30% this week, leading the market by 5.07 percentage points. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.02%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 2.23%, and the gem index rose 2.51%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment rose by 5.96%, wind power rose by 8.48% and photovoltaic rose by 11.63%.
Photovoltaic:
1. The stability of silicon material price for the first time in recent four months is mainly due to no new order transaction, and the overall supply and demand situation will continue until June. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, the silicon material price has stabilized for the first time since rising for 16 consecutive weeks, and the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding remains at a high level of 261100 yuan / ton, which is mainly due to basically no new orders, and the overall shortage of silicon material supply and demand will continue; On the other hand, the price of silicon wafer / battery chip has gradually stabilized, and the component price has continued to rise under the background of upstream pressure and the booming demand of the EU. Pvinfolink expects that the new single negotiation price will be raised to 1.94 ~ 1.95 yuan / W next week, while the price of European components will also continue to rise under the influence of hot demand and exchange rate, The price of household distributed projects has reached US $0.285 ~ 0.315 per watt (the upper limit price has reached 2.11 yuan / W based on the exchange rate of US $1:6.693).
2. After the Russian Ukrainian war, the transformation of new energy in Europe accelerated, and the “repowereu” energy strategy was officially implemented. On May 18, the EU officially released the “REpower EU” strategy and the supporting Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) development strategy, which officially increased the renewable energy share requirement from 40% to 45% (the new energy installed capacity is planned to reach 1236gw in 2030, an increase of 15.84% compared with the “fit for 55” plan). At the same time, the official guidelines for photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 and 2030 are increased to 320gw and 600gw respectively, The mandatory installation of roof photovoltaic will be gradually implemented (the mandatory installation of roof photovoltaic will be required for new residential buildings in 2029). The market had previously made strong expectations for the EU to increase the future PV installed capacity. The official implementation of this strategy also indicates that the EU PV installed capacity is expected to maintain a high-speed growth trend in the future (the average annual PV installed capacity from 2020 to 2030 is about 45gw).
3. Investment: (1) the Indian market and the situation in Russia and Ukraine are the key factors for the sustained and good output and shipment of photovoltaic H1. Superimposed on China’s strengthening of infrastructure in 2022q2 and the overall cost reduction of the industrial chain after the release of 2022h2 silicon material capacity, Longji green energy, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Jingke energy are recommended. (2) The price of upstream cycle products q2-q3 is expected to peak, the pressure on the cost side begins to ease, and some auxiliary materials may rise due to structural supply and demand shortage. Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , especially Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) It is recommended to lay out new technologies of granular silicon, large-size, IBC and laminated tile to promote the continuous improvement of single tile profit. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in the rapid development of Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . (4) The high energy price in Europe is conducive to the favorable price of products. The profit margin of European household energy storage / photovoltaic offshore enterprises is Q2 upward. It is recommended to focus on Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , and pay attention to Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , etc.
Wind power:
1. The EU sea breeze is expected to increase, the large-scale unit continues to accelerate, and the profit of the wind power industry in the second half of the year is expected to be repaired due to the decline of steel price. (1) “North Sea Offshore Wind Power Summit” was held, and EU countries promised to expand their offshore wind power installed capacity to 65gw by 2030; (2) Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) and Zhongfu jointly held the offline ceremony of yd110 offshore blades, which is the first and longest wind power blade successfully offline in China; (3) According to wind data, on May 20, the prices of iron ore, rebar and medium and heavy sector decreased by 9% / 9% / 4% compared with the high point in 2022. The cost pressure of fan industry chain was relieved and the profitability was expected to be improved.
2. In terms of investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations and under the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the profit recovery logic, it is recommended to Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk tips:
The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of the State Grid are lower than expected, resulting in the risk of blocking the installation and landing.
