Market review: this week (from May 16 to May 20), Shenwan food and beverage industry increased by 1.94% this week, less than the increase of 2.10% in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300; Among them, beer (Shenwan class III, the same below) (5.04%), soft drinks (4.49%%) and Baijiu (4.03%) ranked among the top three in the growth of Shenwan class III food and beverage; Meat products (- 2.28%), health products (- 1.69%) and baked goods (0.68%) ranked among the top three in the decline of Shenwan level III food and beverage sectors.
Baijiu: the short-term payment collection is delayed and the inventory is under pressure. The medium and long-term stable growth policy is still a strong support for Baijiu consumption. This week, Feitian bulk bottles were 26802755 yuan, the whole box was priced at 29102970 yuan, up about 100 yuan month on month, and the price of puwu was about 980 yuan. The month on month price was flat, and the channel profit remained stable. Maotai thoroughly implemented digital marketing reform. I Maotai was officially launched on May 19, adding five products such as Feitian 53% vol 100ml Maotai liquor and golden Prince liquor, covering the full price band and improving the online product matrix. From June 1, the new national standard for Baijiu will be formally implemented. Flavored Baijiu using food additives will be classified as blended liquor and excluded from Baijiu classification. The industry threshold will be raised. The withdrawal of backward production capacity will be accelerated, which is conducive to the improvement of industry concentration and high-quality development. In the short term, the channel inventory in April and may is higher than that in the same period last year, and the payment collection rhythm is delayed. The consumption scene will be gradually repaired with the resumption of work and production and the liberalization of offline consumption scene; Liquor enterprises began to promote payment collection in the middle and late May, and the consumption of Baijiu drinking scene during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday will return to normal. We believe that the recovery of the epidemic situation in 22 years is slower than that in 20 years due to the damage of consumption capacity. With the sauce wine boom, the 20 years are in the period of rapid price increase of Baijiu, and the price increase hedges the loss of volume. However, the loss in 22 years is still within the expectation and is reflected in the change of share price. In the medium and long term, the industrial concentration and the structural prosperity development trend remain unchanged. It is suggested to pay attention to the accelerated implementation of national policies related to stable macroeconomic growth, and the strong support of real estate infrastructure for Baijiu consumption. Driven by this, 2h Baijiu consumption performance in 2022 will also be guaranteed, and the margin is expected to gradually improve in the later period.
Popular goods: pay attention to the repair of offline consumption scenes of three main lines and the main line of layout recovery. The epidemic situation has been gradually controlled, offline consumption scenes such as catering are gradually recovering, the catering industry chain deserves special attention, the passenger flow of supermarkets and other channels will also be improved, and the leading enterprises of dairy products and leisure food are expected to benefit. At present, on the one hand, popular goods are affected by the price fluctuation of upstream bulk raw and auxiliary materials, on the other hand, by the fluctuation of China’s economic environment and revenue and expenditure factors, and the consumption demand of end B, end C and end g also presents a certain periodicity. We believe that the fluctuation of cost and demand cycle does not affect the long-term growth logic of the industry, and recommend three main lines: (1) buy pricing power, that is, companies with pricing power or the ability to continuously raise prices in subdivided scenarios / categories; (2) Leading enterprises with large-scale advantages, i.e. companies in which advantageous enterprises continuously improve operation efficiency by virtue of scale effect; (3) Investment scenarios and cost margins have improved industry enterprises.
Investment suggestions: (1) long term focus on the acceleration of the implementation of policies related to the steady growth of the national economy. Driven by real estate infrastructure, 2h Baijiu consumption performance in 2022 will also be guaranteed. In the medium and long term, the Rural Revitalization policy will accelerate the rise of regional central cities, gather population and capital resources, or drive the urbanization rate of low-level cities to increase, and stimulate the consumption of real estate Baijiu and the sinking of food leading brands and channels; (2) At present, we recommend: the restorative growth of marginal improvement varieties in social scenes, and it is expected to accelerate month on month in 22 years under the low base of Q2 / Q3 on the food side; (3) Comprehensive recommendation: Baijiu, beer and popular products. . At the same time, we also see the strong correlation between the secondary high-end and China’s economy, which will continue to exceed the average growth rate of the industry in the future. We recommend Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) . Plate recommendations for popular goods: popular goods follow three investment mainlines. Recommendations for popular goods: popular goods follow popular goods that follow the three investment mainlines. Popular goods follow popular goods: popular goods follow the three investment mainlines. Recommendations: followingthe three main investment mainlines: forthe popular for the popular: popular goods follow the three investment mainlines:: forpopular goods that follow the three investment mainlines: forpopular goods that follow the three investment mainlines. Recommendations: forthe popular goods that follow the three investment mainlines: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600 , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) .
Risk tips: the adjustment of restrictive industrial policies exceeded expectations, the scattered occurrence and control of the epidemic affected the recovery of consumption scenarios, the risk of higher than expected rise in raw material costs, food safety risks, etc.
