Investment suggestion: it is expected to improve and the upward attack is imminent. The expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of demand is becoming stronger, and the price of thermal coal is strong. Although the implementation of the coal long-term association and price monitoring are stricter in terms of policy, the price space is higher than expected, which is still favorable; Coking coal still needs to observe the actual impact of real estate relaxation. In terms of prosperity, the overall supply and demand of the coal industry will remain tight. The growth rate of coal enterprises’ performance in the first quarter is generally fast, and the improvement of performance in the second quarter is expected to continue to exceed the expected performance; The high proportion of dividends of listed companies reached a new high since listing, boosted market sentiment and continued to be optimistic about the future market. It is suggested to focus on the target: power coal company Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) ; Coking coal company Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) .
Core logic: driven by the production capacity cycle, the high outlook of the coal industry continues. The supply side reform launched in 2016 resolved excess capacity, exceeded the target, and the supply capacity decreased more than expected. The national development and Reform Commission calls for accelerating the development and expansion of new driving forces, cultivating and developing high-quality and advanced production capacity, but it is far from being thirsty. Judging from the construction period of 3-5 years, the overall scale of coal production capacity that can be truly released in the future is relatively limited. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, with the growth of the national economy, the energy demand of the whole society is expected to maintain a growth trend, the bottom-up guarantee role of coal in the energy system may be more prominent, the absolute consumption of coal will increase steadily, and the coal industry is still in a high boom development stage.
Points beyond expectations: 1) difficulty in increasing production and ensuring supply exceeds expectations: the space for capacity re combing and re mining in 2022 is limited, and it is difficult to increase another 300 million tons of capacity. On March 18, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on establishing a special class to promote the work related to increasing coal production and ensuring supply, indicating that the urgency and difficulty of increasing production and ensuring supply may be more severe than expected. 2) Demand growth toughness exceeds expectations: the downstream data of Q1 coal in 2022 seems to perform poorly, but considering the high growth in the same period last year, the actual performance this year is OK, and the demand growth toughness is still very strong. With the continuous development of the national “steady growth” measures, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased steadily, which is expected to drive the higher than expected growth of downstream coal demand. 3) The price limit order restricts the power coal and raises the upper limit beyond expectations: the national development and Reform Commission has successively issued the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism (fgjg [2022] No. 303) and the Announcement No. 4 of 2022, regulating the coal price. The scope of the price limit order is clear: it is mainly aimed at the power coal in the power coal, excluding coking coal, anthracite and non power coal. The upper limit of spot price has moved up more than expected: the upper limit of spot price has moved up compared with the previous limit of “pit mouth not exceeding 700 yuan / ton and port not exceeding 900 yuan / ton”, and the profit space of coal enterprises has been opened again. 4) The Russian Ukrainian crisis catalyzed the global energy crisis, and overseas coal prices soared higher than expected: the spot price index of the three major international power coal rose sharply, superimposed with the uncertain prospect of the liberalization of imported coal from Australia and the export obstruction caused by the need for Indonesian coal mines to fulfill DMO, the supplementary effect of imported coal on the supply of China’s market was limited, and the coal import situation was tight. High overseas coal prices and the transfer of imports to domestic trade may exacerbate the tension in coastal coal supply.
Coal price: the price of power coal is strong, and the price of coking coal is falling.
In terms of thermal coal, the port price is stable this week, and the pit price is strong. On the supply side, the supply in the main production areas has been slightly tightened, the sales are good, there are many queues for coal pulling vehicles, the long-term insurance association has led to tight coal sources in the market, strong prices, and some coal mines have been interviewed for price increases; In terms of ports, the shipping cost is high, the price difference between offer and counter-offer is large, and there are few transactions. The purchase is mainly made by non power coal users, and the price is stabilizing; The international coal market demand is good, and the price of imported coal is still high. On the demand side, the daily consumption of the power plant is reduced, and the overall demand is still weak. Near the end of the month, the coal management ticket at the origin began to be tight, and the downstream demand is expected to improve. Some traders are expected to be bullish. In the follow-up, they will continue to pay attention to the resumption of production and work and the demand for replenishment at the downstream.
In terms of coking coal and coke, prices fell. On the supply side, the coal mines that stopped production basically returned to normal, the supply continued to increase, there were certain purchases in the downstream, and the increase of inventory in the mine slowed down; In terms of importing Mongolian coal, the average daily customs clearance of Ganqi Maodu port was 375 vehicles on the 4th of this week, with an increase of 77 vehicles on a weekly basis. The downstream procurement was cautious, and the price of Mongolian coal continued to fall; On the demand side, the downstream procurement has improved slightly, but after three consecutive rounds of coke price reduction, the profit has been significantly compressed, and some began to limit production, while the profit of steel mills has not been repaired, and the willingness to purchase is not strong. Downstream real estate has the expectation of marginal relaxation, and we still need to continue to pay attention to the terminal demand.
High frequency data tracking
The port price of thermal coal was flat; Coking coal port prices were flat and pit heads fell. As of May 18, the comprehensive average price index: Bohai Rim thermal coal (q5500k) closed at 735.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; As of May 20, the comprehensive trading price: cctd Qinhuangdao thermal coal (q5500) closed at 786.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; As of May 20, the closing price of Shanxi production of Qinhuangdao port power end coal (q5500) was 1205.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; As of May 20, Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Indonesian coal (q5500) warehouse raised the price by 1343.0 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 9.0 yuan / ton (- 0.7%) on a weekly basis Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Australian coal (q5500) warehouse raised the price by 1348.0 yuan / ton, down 9.0 yuan / ton (- 0.7%) on a weekly basis. In terms of coking coal, as of May 20, the price of Shanxi produced main coking coal warehouse in Jingtang Port increased by 3050.0 yuan / ton (including tax), which was flat on a week-on-week basis Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) Shanxi’s main coking coal closing price (tax included) was 3434.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; As of May 20, the average price of Shanxi main coking coal was 2732.0 yuan / ton, down 50.0 yuan / ton (- 1.8%) on a weekly basis; As of May 20, the sector price of 1 / 3 coking coal truck in Luliang, Shanxi was 2400.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis.
The port inventory of thermal coal decreased and the terminal inventory increased, while the port inventory of coking coal decreased and the terminal inventory decreased. As of May 19, the storage of power coal in the eight coastal provinces totaled 30.24 million tons, with a weekly increase of 238000 tons (+ 0.79%). As of May 21, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.5 million tons, down 220000 tons (- 4.7%) on a weekly basis. In terms of coking coal, as of May 20, the coking coal warehouse of the six major ports had stored 1.63 million tons, with a decrease of 90000 tons (- 5.23%) on a weekly basis; As of May 16, the total inventory of coking coal in China’s coking plants was 3.018 million tons, down 36000 tons (- 1.1%) on a weekly basis.
The railway arrival volume and port throughput of Qinhuangdao Port decreased; Coal shipping costs fell.
As of May 20, the arrival volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 5291.0 vehicles, with a decrease of 791.0 vehicles (- 13.0%) on a weekly basis; The port throughput of Qinhuangdao port was 435000 tons, down 41000 tons (- 8.6%) on a weekly basis. As of May 20, the ocfi of Qinhuangdao Shanghai (4 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 DWT) Maritime coal freight index was 29.2 yuan / ton, down 4.3 yuan / ton (- 12.8%) on a weekly basis; Qinhuangdao Guangzhou (5 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 000 DWT) Maritime coal freight rate index ocfi45 7 yuan / ton, down 5.3 yuan / ton (- 10.4%) on a weekly basis.
Downstream performance: the price of coke fell, the price of steel fell, the operating rate of blast furnace increased, the price of methanol remained unchanged, and the price of cement fell. As of May 20, the closing price of Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) quasi primary metallurgical coke (tax included) was 3410.0 yuan / ton, down 200.0 yuan / ton (- 5.5%) on a weekly basis; As of May 20, the price of rebar in Shanghai (HRB400 20mm) was 4820.0 yuan / ton, down 80.0 yuan / ton (- 1.6%) on a weekly basis; As of May 20, the national blast furnace operating rate (247) was 83.0%, with a weekly increase of 0.4% (+ 0.5%); As of May 20, the methanol price index was 2688.0, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; As of May 20, the national cement price index was 163.2, down 2.1 (- 1.2%) on a weekly basis.
Risk warning: policy price limit risk; Coal import volume; The macro economy has fallen sharply.
