Weekly view:
The central bank lowered the five-year LPR: on May 20, the people’s Bank of China authorized the national interbank lending center to announce that the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market was: the one-year LPR was 3.7%, which remained unchanged; The LPR over 5 years was 4.45%, 15 BP lower than the previous value.
Based on the adjusted five-year LPR, the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate was reduced to 4.25%. We believe that after the LPR reduction, the space for the reduction of mortgage interest rates in various regions will be further expanded, which is conducive to reducing the purchase cost of consumers, so as to promote the bottom recovery of market prosperity.
The commercial loan interest rate of the first house is 20 basis points lower than that of LPR: on May 15, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice that the lower limit of the commercial individual housing loan interest rate of the first house is adjusted to not less than the market quotation interest rate of the corresponding term, and the lower limit of the commercial individual housing loan interest rate of the second house is implemented in accordance with the current provisions.
Compared with local policies, the top-down national credit policy relaxation has released a more positive signal. Due to the city’s policy, many cities have adjusted the identification standards of the first suite. Therefore, we believe that this policy not only reflects the need to meet the rigid housing needs of consumers, but also reflects the support for the demand for improved housing.
We believe that there has been no substantial improvement in the current total data, and the regulation policy is still dominated by a loose rhythm. At the same time, the marginal improvement of the operation quality and sales scale of some high-quality enterprises is obvious. Under this environment, we continue to recommend three main lines: 1) the dilemma reversal enterprise that makes the most of the bad in the early stage and benefits from the optimization of the centralized land supply policy: Vanke A; 2) Leading real estate enterprises under the continuous improvement of competition pattern: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ; 3) High rated steady operation private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Xuhui holding group.
Industry tracking
Sales review (05.14-05.20): the total transaction area of 33 key monitoring cities was 2.68 million m2, down 9.7% from last week; In 2022, a total of 57.505 million square meters were sold, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 46.7%. Among them, the first tier cities sold 323000 square meters, down 26.3% from last week. In 2022, a total of 10.206 million square meters were sold, down 40.1% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 1.496 million square meters, down 3.2% from last week. In 2022, a total of 28.914 million square meters were sold, down 37.1% year-on-year; The volume of transactions in the third tier cities was 862000 square meters, down 12.4% from last week. The cumulative volume of transactions in 2022 was 18.385 million square meters, down 59.0% year-on-year..
Land supply (05.09-05.15): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 4.71 million m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 149670000 m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 57.1% and a supply-demand ratio of 1.26. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 2144 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 6154 yuan / m2, with a month on month increase of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 54.5%.
Land transaction (05.09-05.15): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 5.29 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction of 118.53 million square meters in 2022, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 59.2%.
In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 6866 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 20%, a year-on-year decrease of 28.1%, and the overall premium rate was 2.9%. In 2022, the average floor price was 5458 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, and the premium rate was 4.1%, a decrease of 15.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
