Aviation: the extreme low point under the impact of the epidemic, which rebounded significantly month on month in May. 1) In April, affected by the epidemic, the aviation operation data fell to the lowest point since the epidemic. In terms of transport capacity input and output, the total ask of the three airlines decreased by 78.5% year-on-year, 82.7% year-on-year, 84.0% year-on-year and 88.2% year-on-year. Ask and RPK were the lowest points since the epidemic. The passenger occupancy rate of the three major airlines is 56.4%, second only to 49.5% in February of 20 years since the epidemic; 2) From the perspective of high-frequency data, the number of flights has recovered significantly since May. As of May 20, the average daily flight volume of the three major airlines in May fell by 71.3% year-on-year, 67.6% in spring and autumn and 86.6% in auspicious; On a month on month basis, the three major airlines increased by 33.7%, 40.0% in spring and autumn and 35.7% in auspicious; Compared with 19 years ago, the three major airlines fell by 70.9%, the spring and autumn fell by 59.9%, and Jixiang fell by 85.8%. The occupancy rate of the whole industry remains between 60-65%.
Express delivery: the business volume of the whole industry fell by 11.9% in April and gradually recovered in May. 1) In April, affected by the epidemic, the business volume of the whole industry decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, but the unit price of each company generally increased. The business volume of the whole industry was 7.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%, and the single ticket price was 9.90 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.09%. The business volume of listed companies has declined, but the differentiation is large. Volume growth: Yunda (- 19.4%) industry (- 11.9%) SF (- 10.0%) Shentong (- 7.7%) Yuantong (- 4.8%). Single ticket income: Tongda is the unit price of Puti. SF’s single ticket revenue was 15.40 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.65%; The single ticket income of Yuantong was 2.51 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%; Yunda’s single ticket income was 2.53 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.0%; The single ticket income of Shentong was 2.57 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%. 2) Since May, the number of pieces has gradually picked up, an increase of 28% over the average in April. On May 20 (three-day moving average), the average collection was 319 million and the average delivery was 335 million, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and 11.0% compared with the average in late April (April 20-30); The collection volume increased by 28% compared with the industry average of 249 million pieces in April.
Industry tracking: 1) road freight: the vehicle freight index fell by 17.2% year-on-year, up nearly 50% from the beginning of April; 2) Railway Freight: the freight volume decreased by 2.8% compared with late April; 3) Port throughput: cargo throughput decreased by 3.4% and container throughput increased by 0.4% compared with late April; 4) Air cargo: the number of flights increased by 13.5% compared with late April; 5) Shipping: SCFI rose 0.4% this week, with an average increase of 59.7% this year.
Market review: this week (2022 / 5 / 162022 / 5 / 22), CSI 300 rose 3.06%, and the transportation sector rose 1.3%, ranking 24th among Shenwan’s 31 primary industries. Among the tertiary sub industries, public transport, intermediate products and consumer goods supply chain services and express delivery rose the top three, rising 5.9%, 5.4% and 4.2% respectively. Only the port sector fell, down 1.8%, and the raw material supply chain services and highways rose 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.
Investment proposal and investment object
Aviation: optimistic about the cyclical elasticity of the aviation sector after the epidemic, pay attention to the industry or brewing a new round of changes. Core logic: the reversal of supply and demand drives the double rise of passenger seat rate and ticket price, and promotes performance elasticity. The direction of epidemic repair is determined and the time point is uncertain. At present, it has gradually entered a new round of layout period. It is suggested to pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) ( Air China Limited(601111) , not rated), private airlines Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ( Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , increased holdings), China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) ( China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) , not rated), etc.
Express: we are optimistic about S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ( S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , buy) the long-term barriers will be further strengthened and enter the period of strategic layout. In the long run, SF is still the core asset of China’s logistics industry. With the gradual realization of cost control and the gradual operation of Ezhou airport, the company is expected to build new barriers and advantageous positions in the fields of time limited parts, international parts and tob supply chain. The current time point is suitable for the long-term strategic layout. Tongda is the basis of short-term benefit policy, and the single ticket price has improved significantly. We pay attention to Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ( Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , not rated) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) ( Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , not rated).
Undervalued high dividend varieties: focus on the expressway sector. The current dividend yield is generally 4-5%, with allocation value. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) ( Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) , Unrated) (dividend yield 5%), China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) ( China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) , Unrated) (5%), etc.
Risk tips
The macro-economy is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is more than expected, the impact of the air crash is more than expected, and the policy is less than expected
