Core view
Special topic of this week: 1) the epidemic affected the decline of demand in April, and the consumption of household appliances was slightly weak. According to the social zero data released by the National Bureau of statistics in April, the retail sales of household appliances and audio equipment in China in April was 59.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 8.1%, and the decline expanded month on month (the growth rate in March was - 4.3%). We believe that the reason is that the epidemic has been repeated in some parts of China since late March, and the offline consumer demand has been restrained. In addition, the epidemic has delayed the delivery of online goods and impeded the logistics and distribution in many places, It has also exacerbated the retail pressure on China's online consumer goods market. 2) In April, the production of household air conditioners at the shipping end decreased slightly, and the overall sales volume increased slightly. We believe that the main reason is that the repeated epidemic has led to the poor operation of the supply chain, the production rhythm of air conditioner manufacturers has been disrupted, and some enterprises have failed to produce; However, due to the upcoming peak sales season of traditional air conditioners and the increase of high-temperature weather, the sales volume at the supply side still maintained a positive growth.
Investment strategy in 2022: clear the clouds and see the end of the day. Sometimes, the willow is dark and the flowers are bright and the spring is coming. We are firmly optimistic about raw materials and real estate. Under the background of marginal easing, the breakdown leader of household appliances will accelerate the breakthrough. (1) White electricity: it is suggested to pay attention to the high-end leading of Casati, the Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) and the white electricity leader of diversified and global development Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ; (2) Kitchen electricity: it is suggested to pay attention to the steady development of traditional business, the rapid development of dishwasher and other businesses Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) and Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) and Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry and the accelerated expansion of channels; (3) Small household appliances: the industry demand of kitchen small household appliances is expected to pick up in 2022, and the year-on-year weakening of superimposed cost pressure will bring strong performance flexibility. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) , Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) , etc; Clean electrical appliances such as floor washer and floor sweeper Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) benefit from consumption upgrading, and the demand is expected to grow steadily, but the short-term chip and shipping problems suppress the valuation of the sector to a certain extent. It is recommended to pay attention to Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Kingclean Electric Co.Ltd(603355) , etc; Intelligent projection is recommended to focus on Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) . (4) Electrician lighting: focus on the intensive cultivation of channels and products Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) and the rapid development of business license business Opple Lighting Co.Ltd(603515) .
This week's market: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.02%, and the home appliance industry rose 1.1%, slightly losing the market. Among them, white electricity rose 0.01%, black electricity rose 4.3%, kitchen electricity rose 2%, small household appliances rose 4.03%, lighting electricians and other sectors rose 2.42%. As for the shareholding ratio of Shanghai (Shenzhen) stock connect, as of Friday, Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect accounted for 17.81%, an increase of 0.17pct over last week Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect accounted for 20.13%, up 0.07pct from last week Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect accounted for 10.3%, down 0.03pct from last week Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect accounted for 9.23%, down 0.02pct from last week Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) Hushen stock connect accounted for 9.21%, up 0.37pct from last week Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect accounted for 10.44%, up 0.16pct from last week. In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers in the household appliance industry this week were Kennede Electronics Mfg.Co.Ltd(002723) (22.51%), Zhejiang Goldensea Hi-Tech Co.Ltd(603311) (21.41%), Guangzhou Echom Sci.&Tech.Co.Ltd(002420) (15.27%), Shenzhen Longtech Smart Control Co.Ltd(300916) (14.75%), Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting Co.Ltd(603303) (14.47%); The top five declines were Dea General Aviation Holding Co.Ltd(002260) (- 40.67%), Aishida Co.Ltd(002403) (- 5.94%), Guangdong Chant Group Inc(002616) (- 4.54%), Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) (- 4.26%), Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) (- 4.23%).
One week key data tracking: the price of galvanized sheet coil (0.5mm) this week is 6053 yuan / ton, down 111 yuan / ton from last week; The price of copper (1) this week is 72150 yuan / ton, up 860 yuan / ton from last week; The price of aluminum (A00) this week is 20770 yuan / ton, an increase of 670 yuan / ton compared with last week; The price index of China plastic city was 986 this week, down 10 from last week.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply; Risk of sluggish terminal demand; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
