Key investment points
Since the beginning of the year, the sector has slightly lagged behind the market: this week, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index rose by 2.49%, the gem index rose by 2.20%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 2.15%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.96%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector led the market by 0.53 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2022, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index has fallen by – 14.82%, the gem index by – 27.25%, the CSI 300 index by – 17.46%, the Shanghai Composite Index by – 13.55%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector lags behind the market by – 1.27 percentage points. Event: the European Commission announced the details of the “repowereu” energy plan on its official website, aiming at “getting rid of energy dependence on Russia” and “rapidly promoting energy transformation”. Specifically, the EU plans to “three pronged”, starting from energy conservation, diversification of energy supply and accelerating the promotion of renewable energy, to replace fossil fuels in the fields of household, industry and power generation. The proportion of renewable energy will increase from 40% to 45% in 2030.
Comments:
Photovoltaic occupies the most important position in energy transformation and brings new opportunities to the industry. The EU plans to connect 320 GW of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic to the grid by 2025, double that of 2020 and almost double to 600 GW by 2030. To achieve this goal, the EU will need to add at least 45 gigawatts of installed capacity each year in the future. In addition, the EU has also proposed a phased roof photovoltaic legislation. The EU’s comprehensive promotion of roof photovoltaic will bring new opportunities to the industry, and China is a photovoltaic power, which can export relevant equipment to Europe.
The EU faces great challenges in energy security, and the road of “energy independence” is blocked and long. The EU is bound to suffer from a period of insufficient energy supply and high energy prices. To get rid of the current “dilemma”, the first thing is to find the source of import as soon as possible to make up for the reduction of Russian supply; The second is to live a frugal life for a period of time and reduce inefficient and unnecessary energy consumption; Third, we should vigorously study and develop new technologies and new energy, improve energy efficiency through new technologies, increase new energy supply, and reduce the absolute demand for fossil energy.
The price of products rose and fell with each other: the products with the highest price increase were butadiene (9.09%), isobutyraldehyde (7.21%), solid caustic soda (99% flake soda, East China) (7.14%), aniline (4.67%), vinyl acetate (4.29%), and the products with the highest price decrease were liquefied gas (FOB, Southeast Asia) (- 11.45%), vitamin C (VC powder, 99%) (- 8.22%), methylcyclosiloxane (DMC) (- 7.55%), hydrogen peroxide (27.5%) (- 6.03%), and raw salt (- 5.82%)
Risk warning events: macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
