Core view
Infrastructure investment grew steadily, and real estate data weakened further. According to the latest data released by the Bureau of statistics, from January to April this year, the national broad infrastructure investment increased by 8.26% and fell slightly by 2.22pct month on month. Among them, the growth rate increased by 4.35% in a single month in April, and the growth rate decreased by 7.44pct compared with the previous month. From January to April, real estate investment decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, decreased by 3.4pct month on month, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 20.9% month on month, the decline expanded by 7.1pct month on month, the newly started area decreased by 26.3% year-on-year, the decline expanded by 8.8pct, the cumulative construction area of housing was flat year-on-year, the growth rate decreased by 1PCT year-on-year, the completed area of housing decreased by 11.9% month on month, and the decline expanded by 0.4pct month on month. The overall real estate performance is still under obvious pressure. The recent policies continue to improve marginally. For example, in the early stage, the central bank lowered the lower limit of the first house loan interest rate, and the latest five-year LRP was reduced by 15bp to 4.45%. It is expected to alleviate the pessimistic expectations of the market and pay attention to the improvement of demand brought by the promotion of policies.
Cement demand fell to a low point in April and is expected to release. From January to April this year, the national cement output was 580 million tons, a decrease of 14.8% and a decrease of 2.7 PCT month on month. Among them, the output in April was 195 million tons, a decrease of 18.9% and a slight increase of 4.4% month on month, the second lowest level in recent ten years, only higher than the same period in 2020. Mainly due to the repeated epidemic in many places across the country and the shortage of project funds, the overall downstream operating rate was low. As the weather continued to improve, the shipment rate of enterprises remained at a high level of 42.5% in the lower reaches of the week. However, as the weather continued to improve, the inventory rate of enterprises continued to decline at the lower end of the week due to the strong operation level of o20.5% 5. The average price of high-standard cement was 484.2 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 1.73%, the storage capacity ratio was 69.7%, and an increase of 0.3pct. As the epidemic prevention and control continues and the rainy season approaches, the short-term demand for cement is likely to remain relatively weak, and short-term demand for cement is likely to remain relatively weak in the short term, as the outbreak prevention and control continues and the plum rains season comes, short-term demand for cement is likely to remain relatively weak in the coming years, and with the coming of the “steady growth” policy and the weather and epidemic situation getting better, with the coming of the “steady growth” policy, and weather and the weather and outbreaks coming, demand is expected to be expected to continue to release in the second half of the next half year, with recommendations for Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) \ \7 Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) ；
Layout “steady growth” and wait for the policy effect to appear. In the traditional peak season in the second quarter, the demand performance of the industry was significantly weaker than that in the same period in previous years. Looking forward to the future market, the relevant measures of “steady growth” such as the central bank and the national development and Reform Commission continued to increase and promote in the early stage. Local governments also continued to loosen the real estate regulation policies to stabilize the operation of the real estate market. The transmission of relevant policies and the industrial chain gradually accumulated strength, providing potential flexibility for the subsequent demand. It is suggested to pay attention to infrastructure For the relevant varieties with real estate demand as the main factor and high safety margin, short-term bargain hunting layout of cement and high-quality building materials in the real estate chain is waiting for the policy effect to appear. The tracking and investment suggestions of each sub industry at the current time point are as follows:
Glass: this week, the downstream demand of float glass is still average, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Under the impact of the price reduction in North China, the average price of China’s mainstream market of float glass this week was 198911 yuan / ton, down 2.43% month on month. The inventory of production enterprises in key provinces was 51.72 million heavy boxes, an increase of 860000 heavy boxes month on month. In the short term, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the commencement of downstream processing plants and the operation of enterprises; The medium and long-term technological upgrading of the glass industry is still the focus. It is recommended that Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) .
Other building materials: ① glass fiber industry: roving prices continued a certain downward trend this week, and the short-term prices were still slightly under pressure. The price of electronic yarn stabilized after rising, and the short-term probability maintained stable operation; In the medium and long term, the glass fiber industry is expected to enter a new stage of high-quality and orderly expansion of production capacity, driven by the demand side, the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to be optimized, the competitive advantage of leading enterprises is expected to be further consolidated in the future, and the current price can continue to be long. It is recommended that China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ; ② Other building materials: the resilience of real estate investment remains, and the market share of leading enterprises in various sub industries has increased steadily. It is suggested to hold the bargain hunting layout for a long time. It is recommended to Ocean’S King Lighting Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002724) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) .
Risk warning: the landing of the project is lower than expected; The cost rise is higher than expected; Recurrent epidemic
