Zhou’s views and investment suggestions
Zhou’s point of view: the recovery of European and American wine tourism is strong, and the arrival of peak travel season is particularly optimistic about high-end vacation. Since 2h21, the overall European and American hotel industry has shown an upward recovery trend, and the decline range of occupancy demand has been significantly reduced due to the repeated impact of the epidemic. Among them, the RevPAR in the United States has exceeded 19 years in March, and the repair in Europe and France is more advanced in the same period. In March, the RPK of international routes in North America and Europe recovered to 65.7% and 61.5% respectively in the same period in 2019, with a chain comparison of + 8.1pct and + 8.5pct. From the tracking of travel intensity as of the first week of May, the passenger flow of transportation hubs in major European and American countries continued to be higher than that in the same period of the previous two years. It is expected that the overseas hotel market will continue to recover this year with a clear trend. After the epidemic, it is characterized by K-shaped recovery. Referring to the data of intercontinental hotels, it is expected that the demand for high-end leisure vacation will recover faster and more elastic. Suggestions: 1) for Fosun tourism culture, the turnover of Clubmed 1q22 has recovered to 84.5% in the same period in 2019. As of the first and second half of April 16, the reservation volume has recovered to 92.9% and 103.0% in 2019. The proportion of direct sales + sunshine resorts is high. It is expected that with the advent of the peak season of summer seaside vacation and the high elasticity of direct sales mode, the performance of Clubmed is expected to continue to be repaired; Sanya Atlantis has a luxury experience. After the improvement of China’s epidemic situation, the operation is expected to rebound rapidly with the addition of outlying island tax-free policies and island tourism resources. 2) Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) and Huazhu group, which enjoy the recovery of the European epidemic to hedge the pressure on China, of which Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) overseas revenue accounts for a higher proportion (20% +), and overseas hotels are mainly concentrated in France, which is more leading in the recovery of Europe.
Overseas summary Series II: Hotels: asset light continues to be promoted, and performance flexibility continues to be released. 1) Selected international revenue and net profit increased, and 1q22 company closed more high-end / middle-end / economy hotels, resulting in the reduction of the overall scale. 2) Hilton Hotel successfully turned losses into profits, the operation of the U.S. market recovered faster, and the company further promoted the asset light process. 3) Hyatt’s revenue has exceeded the pre epidemic level due to the good recovery trend of the U.S. hotel industry and the support of acquisition business; The net loss was USD 70 million, a year-on-year decrease of 76.0%; Completed the acquisition of ALG in 21 years and accelerated the asset light transformation. Catering: the international market of Domino’s pizza has recovered first, and the upward pressure on the cost is significant. The 1q22 revenue of domino was + 2.8% year-on-year, with excellent performance in the same store in the international market and stable expansion speed of new stores; The net profit was – 22.8% year-on-year, mainly due to the rise of raw material costs and labor costs and the decline of same store sales in the US market; Promote the digital transformation strategy and help the company improve its performance.
Investment suggestion: under the fluctuation of the epidemic situation, in the short term, catering is recommended to pay attention to Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , which has complete supply chain, just needs breakfast and rapid development of group meal business. In the future, it will benefit from the recovery of offline demand and its high degree of standardization, which is in the expansion period; The hotel pays attention to the investment opportunities for the strong recovery of overseas travel, and it is suggested to pay attention to Fosun tourism, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Huazhu group-s.
Data and announcement tracking
Market review: last week (2022 / 5 / 16 ~ 2022 / 5 / 20), CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index rose 2.2%, 4.1% and social services (Shenwan) rose 1.3% respectively. In breakdown, catering A shares and Hong Kong stock indexes rose 0.7% and 4.3% respectively, hotel A shares and Hong Kong stock indexes fell 1.9% and 4.4% respectively.
Industry news: 1) McDonald’s announced its withdrawal from the Russian market and has begun to sell its business in Russia. 2) China Post, Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Li Ning have joined the coffee track, and Wanda and China Railway cross-border new tea drinks. 3) Helen introduced a new model, yueqichuan night market.
Announcement of key companies: Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) director change.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation is repeated, the recovery of terminal demand is less than expected, the industry competition is intensified, and the price of raw materials fluctuates.
