Key investment points
This week’s view:
The pharmaceutical sector callback still emphasizes the main line of covid-19 investment. This week, the CSI 300 rose by 2.23%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by 2%, ranking 27th in 27 primary sub industries. All sub sectors fell this week, including medical devices (- 1.54%), chemical pharmaceuticals (- 1.62%), pharmaceutical commerce (- 2.96%) and biological products (- 2.86%). Calculated by TTM valuation method, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 24.4 times PE, lower than the historical average (37.1 times PE), which is still in a very comfortable layout range. At present, the epidemic situation is complex and still distributed in many places. Domestic covid-19 drugs have entered the key time window, and the normalization trend of nucleic acid detection is clear. The main line of covid-19 is expected to run through the whole year. It is suggested to actively layout covid-19 oral drugs and nucleic acid detection Industrial chain, as well as upstream cdmo, consumables and downstream circulation related enterprises, and grasp the valuation and repair of medical services and consumption after the oversold under the expectation of epidemic repair.
The epidemic situation in Shanghai has gradually eased, and it is suggested to grasp the recovery opportunity of consumer services. On May 20, the office of the leading group for the prevention and control of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Shanghai issued the implementation plan for the city to continue to consolidate the achievements of epidemic prevention and control and return to work in an orderly manner, clarifying the schedule and epidemic requirements for the return to work and production in Shanghai. According to the plan, from May 22 to May 31, Shanghai will enter the stage of expanding the resumption of work and production, and accelerate the full resumption of work and production after June 1. At the same time, the number of newly confirmed cases in Shanghai is controlled below 100 every day, and the epidemic prevention and control has entered the final stage of tackling key problems. We expect that with the improvement of the overall epidemic trend in June, the suppressed demand for consumer medical treatment in the early stage will be released. It is suggested to grasp the recovery of terminal consumption and services, and be optimistic about Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , haijiya medical, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , etc.
The global epidemic situation is complex and changing. China continues to distribute, and oral specific drugs are still in urgent need. It’s suggested to grasp the covid-19 oral medicine industry chain, recommend Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) \ , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , integrated tap of API preparation, etc
The annual sales of covid Paxil oral medicine was US $2.2 billion, and the sales of covid Paxil oral medicine was US $1.9 billion in 2021.
2) Pfizer paxlovid has been urgently approved for use in China, included in the new version of the diagnosis and treatment plan for novel coronavirus pneumonia and entered the medical insurance, with a price of 2300 yuan / box;
3) Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) covid-19 oral drug vv116 published a clinical data of sympathizing medication this week. The research data suggest that the average number of days from the beginning of medication to nucleic acid negative conversion is 3.52 in patients with Omicron infection using vv116; In the patients who used vv116 within 5 days of the first positive nucleic acid test, the average time from the first positive nucleic acid test to negative was 8.56 days, which was less than 11.13 days in the control group. In symptomatic patients, vv116 given within the medication time range of this study (2-10 days after the first nucleic acid positive) can shorten the nucleic acid negative time of patients. In terms of drug safety, no serious adverse reactions were observed in patients who used vv116.
4) vv116 is currently carrying out a global phase III clinical study for moderate and severe cases and two phase III studies for mild and moderate cases, including Pfizer paxlovid head-to-head clinical phase III, which was carried out in April. At present, the clinical enrollment work is carried out in Shanghai, which is expected to accelerate the speed of clinical development. It is expected to obtain preliminary data and apply for listing in the first half of the year; On May 10, Uzbekistan held a press conference and announced that the price of renmindevir (vv116) was 185 US dollars, about 1243 yuan. On the evening of May 19, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600267) issued an announcement and signed the strategic cooperation agreement and the entrusted production framework agreement with Wangshi biology to entrust the production of vv116 tablets / API.
5) real creatures successively apply for class II and class III meetings for communication Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) 3cl protease inhibitor fb2001 (injection) carried out phase II / III key clinical; The 3CL oral inhibitor of Xiansheng pharmaceutical is in phase I of clinical practice. The Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) 3cl oral inhibitor ray1216 tablet was approved for clinical use this week. It is the second domestic 3CL oral drug to enter clinical practice;
A performance: a five month highlight: a five month highlight: a five month highlight: a five month highlight: a five month highlight: a five month highlight: a five month highlight: a five month highlight: tofocus on the following: tohighlight: ‘ Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) 127 , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Dian Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(300244) , Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) . The average decline this week was 3.80%, losing the pharmaceutical industry by 1.79%.
One week market dynamics: Based on the analysis of the pharmaceutical sector from the beginning of 2022 to the present, the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is – 21.6%, the yield of CSI 300 in the same period is – 17.5%, and the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is – 4.1%. This week, the CSI 300 rose by 2.23%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by 2%, ranking 27th in 27 primary sub industries. All sub sectors fell this week, including medical devices (- 1.54%), chemical pharmaceuticals (- 1.62%), pharmaceutical commerce (- 2.96%) and biological products (- 2.86%). Based on the 2022 profit forecast valuation, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 25.9 times PE, the P / E ratio of all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is about 28.6 times PE, and the premium rate of the pharmaceutical sector relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is – 9.4%. Calculated by TTM valuation method, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 24.4 times PE, lower than the historical average (37.1 times PE), and the premium rate relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 27.5%.
Risk warning: the risk of policy disturbance, drug quality problems, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
