Industry core view:
Last week (May 16, 2022 to May 22, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.02%, the Shenwan food and beverage index rose 1.31%, 0.71 percentage points lower than the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 24th among the 31 Tier-1 sub industries of Shenwan. Last week, the sub sectors of food and beverage rose more or less, with soft drinks (+3.38%), snacks (+2.82%), pre processed food (+2.49%), Baijiu (+2.04%) and other sectors rising. Recently, the output and price of Baijiu have shown an upward trend: from January to April, the output of Baijiu of National Liquor Making Enterprises above designated size increased by 4.2% year-on-year; in mid May, the Baijiu price increased by 0.13% month on month, and the price of famous liquor increased by 0.20% month on month. The original box wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has recovered to 3050 yuan since the bottom in March. Many liquor enterprises continue to strengthen channel construction: I Maotai is officially put into operation and will continue to increase online products in the future; Strategic cooperation between Fenjiu and Shanxi traffic control, give full play to the advantages of Shanxi traffic control network, rely on high-speed service area, and enrich Fenjiu sales channels; Tianyoude liquor has actively expanded live broadcasting platforms such as Tiktok Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and other liquor enterprises plan to gradually increase the production capacity of raw liquor. In the long run, the consumption of Baijiu is sticky, the consumption demand is stable, the rising potential still exists, and the fundamentals are still good. In terms of beer and popular food, industry leaders plan to invest in expanding production: China Resources Snow Beer and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) plan to build beer production line and Industrial Park in Longli county to further expand production capacity; Yili invested 15.2 billion yuan to build the whole dairy industry chain project and expand the industrial scale. In the future, it will process 4000 tons of fresh milk per day and produce 1.5 million tons of dairy products per year. Suggestions: 1) Baijiu: high-end Baijiu has a stable market share and continues to promote reform. There is a large growth space for secondary high-end Baijiu. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of high-end and secondary high-end Baijiu; 2) Beer: the process of high-end and standardization of beer development is accelerated, the performance of industry leaders is bright, and the long-term good trend is clear. It is suggested to pay attention to high-end beer leaders; 3) Popular food: the demand for popular food is rigid, and the cost drives the price increase logic of the popular food industry, which is expected to be continuously verified. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of popular food such as dairy products, condiments, prefabricated vegetables and quick-frozen food.
Key investment points:
Weekly talk on Baijiu: last week, the Baijiu sector rose by 2.04%, of which Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) 10.15%, st Huangtai (+9.82%), and Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) 9.55% Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rose 1.22%, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rose 3.52% Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : last week, the wholesale price of Maotai liquor continued to rise. After reaching the bottom in March, the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai liquor in 20 years has risen to 3050 yuan / bottle, and the price of Feitian bulk bottle has risen to 2780 yuan / bottle. “I Maotai” was officially put into operation, and 100ml Feitian and other new products were launched. After 50 days of trial operation, on May 19, Maotai’s official new e-commerce platform “I Maotai” will enter the formal operation stage. After the formal operation, new products will be put into operation. In Feitian, 53% vol100ml and 43% vol500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor will be put on line. On the first day of the official launch of “I Maotai”, more than 2.81 million people applied for 23000 bottles of wine. At 6:00 p.m. on May 19, I Maotai app announced the national subscription results on that day. The data showed that a total of 281896 people applied for four products, including Maotai Lunar New Year of the tiger liquor, Maotai liquor (treasures) and Maotai 1935, with a total of 23444 bottles and 6633340 times Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : last week, the price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) liquor remained unchanged, the price of puwu (eighth generation) remained at yuan / bottle, and the price of puwu (seventh 980 generation) remained at 965 yuan / bottle Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) plans to gradually increase the production capacity of 100000 tons of raw wine in the next few years. On May 16, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) said on the investment interactive platform that the company plans to gradually increase the production capacity of 100000 tons of raw wine in the next few years and further consolidate the country’s largest pure grain solid-state fermentation brewing base. The 80000 ton taotan wine warehouse was officially opened. On May 21, according to the official wechat of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group, the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 8 million ton taotan wine warehouse was officially opened. The overall storage capacity of the pottery jar reaches 300000 tons, further improving the storage capacity of the original wine and better ensuring that the products are stored for at least 3 years before filling; Further improve the ability to store Baijiu according to different years to better meet the personalized needs of consumers. It is reported that in addition to the “one million ton wine storage base” project, which has been officially completed and put into operation in the first phase of the “one million ton wine storage base” project in China, the company is also in the lead Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : Publicity of the construction of new raw wine production capacity projects. On May 16, the Management Committee of Xinghua village economic and Technological Development Zone in Fenyang publicized the planning permit for the construction project of the new raw wine production capacity project of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) health wine park. Strategic cooperation between Fenjiu Group and Shanxi traffic control group. On May 18, the signing ceremony of strategic cooperation between Fenjiu Group and Shanxi traffic control group was held in Cuiyuan Hall of Fenjiu. The purpose of this cooperation between the two sides is to give full play to the brand advantages of Fenjiu and the network advantages of traffic control group, and rely on the expressway service area to further develop Fenjiu franchise and Fenjiu cultural publicity, which is of great significance to enrich Fenjiu sales channels, expand transportation + business forms, and further improve the popularity and reputation of Fenjiu, Speeding up the economic development of expressway will play an important role in promoting Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) : the reconstruction and expansion project of production area 2 is expected to be completed by the end of 2022. On May 16, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) said on the interactive platform that the project bidding of phase II project in the third production area of the company has been completed, and the relevant construction work is being stepped up at present; The reconstruction and expansion project of production area 2 is expected to be completed by the end of 2022. Tianyoude liquor: try to sell on the live broadcasting platform. On May 18, the 2021 annual report explanation meeting of tianyoude liquor was held. Fan wending, deputy general manager of the company and general manager of the marketing center, said in response to investors’ questions that the development of the Internet is a trend. As for the sales of live broadcast platforms such as Tiktok, the company is currently in the trial stage, and will also try to cooperate with online celebrities.
Other sectors of food and beverage:
Beer: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) : it is planned to build an industrial park in Longli county. On May 16, the government network of Longli County, Qiannan Prefecture, Guizhou Province released the “14th five year plan” for industrial development of Longli County, involving snowflake beer and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) construction projects. The plan points out that we will accelerate the development of brewing and supporting industries, support China Resources Snow beer to further expand production capacity, and accelerate the construction of phase II project of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) kiloliter beer production line and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Industrial Park project. Promote the construction of gaosen phase II project and Baosteel’s intelligent aluminum two-piece tank production base. Introduce bottle cap production and other related supporting projects around the beer industry chain, further extend the beer industry chain and expand the industrial scale.
Dairy products: Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) : with a total investment of 15.2 billion yuan, the project is located in Cangzhou. The people’s Government of Cangzhou City, Hebei Province held the signing ceremony of the strategic cooperation framework agreement with Yili Group. Yili Group will invest 15.2 billion yuan in Cangzhou to build a dairy processing base with a daily processing capacity of 4000 tons of fresh milk and an annual output of 1.5 million tons. This time, Yili Group will build a whole chain project of dairy industry, build a dairy farm with a total stock of 240000 cows, and develop 700000 mu of silage corn and 300000 mu of high-quality alfalfa.
Risk factors: 1 Policy risk 2 Food safety risk 3 Epidemic risk 4 Risk of economic growth falling short of expectations
