Special topic of this week: optional consumption is significantly impacted by the epidemic, pay attention to 618 and promote the release of demand: from January to April 2022, the total amount of China’s social zero was 138142 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. The epidemic situation has a significant impact on the expansion of social consumption. Among them, the retail sales of furniture from January to April was 45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. The epidemic weakened & the easing of real estate policy is expected to promote the valuation and repair of furniture in the second half of the year; The sales of building materials and home stores totaled 393913 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.27%; The retail sales of clothing was 408.4 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, online channels are expected to give priority to recovery. It is expected to usher in the centralized release of consumer demand in June. It is suggested to focus on the main line of steady growth & undervalued investment, and it is preferred to have α Attribute.
Investment strategy in 2022: seek “progress” in “change” and take the lead in subdividing leaders. Furniture: focus on domestic market channel reform opportunities. Among them, it is suggested to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) etc. in the finished furniture sector. Papermaking, packaging and printing: subdivide the track pattern and optimize the strong. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) , Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) , Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) , etc. Entertainment and jewelry sector: the consumption upgrading continues and the prosperity rises. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) etc. Retail of home building materials: professional home building materials stores are still dominant, and digital and high-frequency consumption empowerment have become the mainstream. It is suggested to pay attention to Easyhome New Retail Group Corporation Limited(000785) , Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) , which are leading in digital transformation. Textile and clothing: the trend of national fashion continues, and there are good opportunities for sports shoes and children’s wear. It is suggested to pay attention to Anta sports, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) , Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) , Bosideng, etc.
Market review this week: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.02%, and the light industry manufacturing industry rose 2.32%, slightly outperforming the market. The textile and garment industry rose 2.88% this week, slightly outperforming the market. Among them, the paper sector rose 0.16%, the packaging and printing sector rose 3.58%, the home sector rose 3.19%, the entertainment light industry sector rose 1.53%, and other light industry sectors rose 4.16%. The textile manufacturing sector rose 2.63%, and the clothing and home textile sector rose 3.43%. The top three gainers of light industry manufacturing industry this week are panda financial holding (23.21%), Hongbo Co.Ltd(002229) (19.02%), Fujian Ideal Jewellery Industrial Co.Ltd(002740) (17.14%); The top three declines were Guangzhou Seagull Kitchen And Bath Products Co.Ltd(002084) (- 10.4%), Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) (- 6.93%), Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) (- 5.24%). The top three gainers of textile and garment industry are Toread Holdings Group Co.Ltd(300005) (34.56%), China Dive Company Limited(300526) (29.62%), Beijing Sanfo Outdoor Products Co.Ltd(002780) (22.57%); The top three declines were Shanghai Sanmao Enterprise (Group) Co.Ltd(600689) (- 9.73%), Annil Co.Ltd(002875) (- 7.4%), Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) (- 6.62%).
One week key data tracking: the price of dissolved pulp in this week was 8700 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. Whiteboard / white cardboard / corrugated paper / double offset paper / coated paper decreased by 70 / 25 / 25 / 100 / 100 yuan / ton to 4757 / 6425 / 3875 / 6100 / 5700 yuan / ton compared with last week, and other paper types were flat compared with last week. The number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities this week was 21010, up 61% from last week; This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 2.25 million square meters, up 64% from last week. This week, China’s cotton price index: 328 was 22105 yuan / ton, down 184 yuan / ton from last week; Cotlook: a index: 1% tariff is 25517 yuan / ton, down 187 yuan / ton from last week; Cotton futures: the closing price of cotton futures on Zheng stock exchange this week was 21265 yuan / ton, down 55 yuan / ton from last week; The closing price of cotton futures on the New York Stock Exchange was 143.00 cents / pound, down 2.43 cents / pound from last week.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply; Risk of sluggish terminal demand; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
