[business cycle industry]
We believe that the most prominent contradiction between supply and demand in the industrial chain is still at the upstream resource end. Under the trend of China's steady growth and resumption of work and production, the upstream is still the most certain direction of profit, and there is still some room for revaluation in terms of valuation.
1) oil and gas: because the long-term capital expenditure level of oil and gas companies is not high, the supply expansion is constrained by the background of environmental protection and carbon neutrality, and geopolitical and other emergencies catalyze the upward trend of prices, there is much room for improvement in profits, and the current valuation is still low. Suggestions: CNOOC, Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) .
2) phosphorus chemical industry:
We believe that phosphorus chemical industry is a small number of sub industries in the chemical industry chain that have basically completed the integration of upstream resources and formed integrated development. The downstream is mainly used in the field of agrochemical industry, with strong rigidity, which is a better allocation direction under the background of stagflation. At the same time, it opens the growth of phosphorus and fluorine elements under the trend of new energy. Recommend Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , CNOOC Petrochemical (Hong Kong stock), etc.
3) soda ash: under the expectation of steady growth of real estate, float glass will stabilize the demand for soda ash, and the centralized production of photovoltaic glass and lithium carbonate will drive the incremental demand. There is little new capacity in the industry this year, and the supply and demand will change from tight balance to shortage. Recommendation: Shuanghuan technology, Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) , Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) , Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603077) , etc.
4) sulfur and sulfuric acid chain: the global oil and gas prices have risen sharply, the load of overseas refineries has decreased, and the tight supply and demand has led to the rise of sulfur prices. However, the demand side has a high prosperity of global phosphorus chemical industry, which supports the rise of sulfur and sulfuric acid prices. Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings Co.Ltd(000833) .
[growth sector]
As a high-quality chemical leader with competitive advantages in the whole industrial chain and strong growth certainty, the current valuation and expectation are in the bottom area, and the expected rate of return will increase in the medium and long term; In terms of growth stocks, it is suggested to choose varieties with long industrial chain, downstream rigid demand and strong pricing power.
1) the leading chemical companies with high-quality growth have been tested for a long time in terms of barriers and competitiveness, with strong core competitiveness and outstanding growth in the future. Recommendations: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , satellite chemistry, Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , etc.
2) new material growth: focus on the upstream new material leader with deep moat and large domestic substitution space. Recommend: semiconductor material leader entering the supply chain of key customers at home and abroad such as SK Hynix and Changjiang storage - Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) ; Sichuan Em Technology Co.Ltd(601208) , a platform manufacturer of new materials with fast and large volume of optical film + special resin, complete industrial chain and rich product reserves.
3) consumption growth: focus on the leader of the whole industrial chain and strong cost transfer ability. Recommend: the leader of the subdivision track of downstream plant capsules (health products & Medicine) and artificial meat (food) - Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) ; It is a research and development platform for organic synthesis of Pfizer covid-19 drug, nocytol, Deanxit and other first-line drug intermediates - Great Chinasoft Technology Co.Ltd(002453) .
Risk warning: the macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected; The product price fluctuates greatly; International oil prices fell sharply; The construction progress of new projects is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks, etc.
