Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index rose 1.40%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.62 percentage points. According to the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in April was – 11.10% compared with the same period in 2021, of which the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics were – 26.70% and – 22.30% year-on-year respectively. In the short term, the national epidemic spreads in many places, which has a great impact on the consumer market, especially optional consumer goods. However, with effective prevention and control measures, the epidemic is expected to be gradually controlled in the future. In addition, consumer vouchers are issued in many places, and major e-commerce platforms are actively preparing for 618. The consumer market is expected to recover in the future. Suggestions: ① mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentive measures. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance; ② Cosmetics & Medical Beauty: under the beauty economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics and medical beauty. Recently, a number of regulations related to cosmetics and medical beauty have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics and medical beauty; ③ Gold jewelry: in the short term, the offline consumption scene of gold jewelry is facing uncertainty due to the impact of the epidemic; In the medium and long term, the increasing penetration of daily consumption, gift giving, investment and other scenarios under the concept of “pleasing oneself” has driven the steady expansion of the industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated the industry integration in the past two years. Jewelry leading enterprises have actively seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and are optimistic about gold jewelry leading enterprises.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week (may 16-may 22), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.02%, the Shenwan retail trade index rose 1.40%, and the retail trade index lost 0.62 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 22nd in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 13.55%, the commercial retail index has fallen by 13.84%, and the Shenwan commercial retail index has lost 0.29 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 11th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: the total retail sales of social consumer goods in April was – 11.10% year-on-year, of which the retail sales revenue of goods was – 9.7% year-on-year and the catering revenue was – 22.7% year-on-year. Among the sub categories, the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota were – 26.7% and – 22.3% respectively year-on-year. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold rose $35.35 to $184628/oz, and silver rose $0.65 to $21.75/oz.
Important announcements of listed companies: Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.Ltd(605136) , Jieya shares, Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles Co.Ltd(002762) , Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) profit distribution Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.Ltd(605136) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) announcement of reduction Lafang China Co.Ltd(603630) , Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) share repurchase Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) lifting the sales restriction.
Important events in the industry: ① Taobao’s new regulations refer to children’s cosmetics; ② Peninsula Medical “radiofrequency therapeutic instrument liti” was approved by nmpa for listing.
Risk factors: the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
