Industry perspective
We systematically analyze the evolution of the whole industrial chain of ferromanganese lithium from five dimensions, and the main conclusions are as follows: 1 Whether lithium ferromanganese and lithium iron can coexist depends on the development of lithium ferromanganese technology. 2. The competitiveness of the first mover head company has been strengthened and is expected to obtain excess returns, and its core comes from process precipitation; 3. The commercialization of lithium ferromanganese has reached Chapter II (power loading is imminent). With the head enterprise expected to load power batteries at the end of 22, the whole industrial chain will usher in a new chapter.
Why develop lithium manganese iron phosphate: old trees and new branches are essentially economic improvement. In recent years, the energy density of LFP battery has increased rapidly and is close to the limit. According to the catalogue of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy released by gongxin.com, the maximum energy density of LFP battery system in 2022 is 161.27wh/kg, and this maximum value has hardly changed in recent two years. The desire of battery plants and cathode plants for schemes that can improve energy density in principle has been further improved. Since then, the great development of lithium manganese iron phosphate series came into being.
What is good lithium manganese iron phosphate: homogeneous solid solution is the essence and precipitation is the phenomenon. Lfmp inherits the LFP phosphate structure system to olivine structure, which leads to its low conductivity and magnification performance. Due to the addition of manganese and other metals, lfmp has double voltage and J-T effect, resulting in low specific capacity and poor stability. At present, the conductivity, magnification and dual voltage industries have been solved. The problems caused by manganese precipitation are the biggest constraints of the industry, while the formation of uniform solid solution has become the biggest pain point of manganese precipitation. A few enterprises in the industry have broken through (doping, core-shell structure change, etc.).
How to produce good lithium manganese iron phosphate: two routes, the liquid phase method is the best. At present, there are two main methods for the production of lithium ferromanganese: liquid phase method and semi solid and semi liquid method. The production process of LMFP is different from that of LFP. Because ferromanganese needs to form a uniform solid solution to produce high-quality lithium ferromanganese, the probability of producing high-quality lithium ferromanganese should be based on the liquid-phase method, which has a significant first mover advantage.
Where is the future of lithium manganese iron phosphate: first two rounds, then compound, and the final chapter is an independent group. First of all, LMFP + LMO products have taken the lead in entering the two wheeled electric vehicle terminal with the advantages of safety and cycle life. Now: compared with NCM, the safety and cycle performance of LMFP + NCM composite products are greatly improved, and the manufacturing cost is reduced, which has become the beginning of the commercialization of the vehicle end. Future: in theory, with the increasing proportion of manganese, the higher the comprehensive capacity density of LMFP, and then the higher its economy. However, because the problems such as manganese precipitation and conductivity have not been perfectly solved, LMFP is expected to be implemented in groups in the future as enterprises overcome production problems.
Who can produce good lithium manganese iron phosphate: competing for the best, the first mover has a significant advantage. With the rapid development of ferromanganese lithium industry chain in the 21st and 22nd years, the giants of cathode & battery industry have stepped up their layout. Positive pole: the capacity of Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) leading by liquid phase method has expanded most rapidly. At present, the planned capacity has reached 440000 tons. The rest, such as Litai lithium energy, Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) etc., have also announced their capacity expansion plans one after another. Battery: this year, leaders of battery factories such as Ningde, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and others have announced or accelerated the research and development of ferromanganese lithium series batteries.
Investment advice
As the positive energy density of iron lithium is close to the theoretical extreme value, lithium ferromanganese may become the second growth curve of iron lithium enterprises. With the rapid development of ferromanganese lithium industry in the 21st and 22nd years and the industrial commercialization & scale is imminent, we suggest paying attention to the enterprises that have made breakthroughs in the industry and have the first mover advantage. Key recommendations: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ; It is suggested to pay attention to: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Litai lithium energy, etc.
Risk tips
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Market competition intensifies risks; The risk of overcapacity in the industry.
