Core view:
① the relief policy supports the formation of the bottom of the air travel market, and the valuation of airport companies presents differentiation characteristics. First, the number of newly confirmed cases in China continued to decline, with the number of aviation flights increasing by 14% and the traffic volume of highway trucks + 7%. Second, the Civil Aviation Administration issued a relief policy to subsidize 4500 flights, which reflects the purpose of the state to ensure the minimum operation of China’s civil aviation, and the bottom of the air travel market continues to strengthen. Third, from the perspective of valuation, the airport sector has structural opportunities. ② The unit price of express delivery shows a steady improvement trend, and new changes have taken place in the market pattern. First, affected by the current epidemic in Shanghai, Beijing and other places, the operation of the express industry has been greatly affected. In April 2022, the express delivery volume of the industry was about 7.5 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of – 12%, which is a rare year-on-year decrease excluding the Spring Festival. Second, the unit price of e-commerce express delivery has improved steadily. In April, the single ticket prices of Yuantong, Yunda and Shentong were + 16.74%, + 24.02% and + 20.66% respectively year-on-year. Third, the market pattern has changed. In April, the share of Yunda city decreased to 15.13%, that of Yuantong city increased to 16.65%, and that of Shunfeng city increased slightly.
Industry high frequency dynamic data tracking:
① air logistics: in mid May, the month on month decline of air cargo flights narrowed, and international passenger to cargo flights increased steadily. ② Shipping ports: BDI index shows an upward trend, and the price of refined oil transportation continues to rise. ③ Express Logistics: in mid May, the average daily express business volume increased compared with previous years; The circulation rate rose to 65.4% in April. ④ Real time logistics: under the epidemic situation, strengthen the material support function of supermarkets and front warehouses, and the demand for real-time distribution logistics has increased steadily. ⑤ Air travel: Shanghai has steadily promoted the resumption of work, business and production, and the number of Chinese flights has shown an improvement trend. ⑥ Road and Railway: in the first ten days of May, the whole vehicle freight flow of the country was steadily repaired, and the railway freight volume decreased. ⑦ New forms of transportation: the number of users of typical network freight platform has been stable and improved month on month; The concentration of online car Hailing market has decreased, and the market share of CR8 will reach 89.19.
Investment suggestions:
Actively layout the opportunities for reversing the difficulties of the air travel sector. Recently, the Civil Aviation Administration issued relief policies to strengthen the normal minimum operation of the civil aviation passenger transport market. It is suggested to pay close attention to the systematic opportunities of the aviation industry brought by the expected enhancement of the recovery of China’s aviation market in the near future, and pay long-term attention to the leader of the subdivided air travel market. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to continue to pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) ( Air China Limited(601111) . SH), which accounts for a large proportion of international business, and Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) ( Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) . SH), which relies on inbound and outbound passenger flow to carry out tax-free business. It is recommended to recommend low-cost airlines Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ( Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) . SH) and branch leaders China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) ( China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) . SH). From the perspective of valuation, focus on China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) ( China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) . SH), China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) ( China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) . SH), Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) ( Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) . SH).
Pay attention to the e-commerce express with the gradual improvement of price and the increase of market share. Under the favorable conditions of multiple policy factors, the express industry saw the price war or inflection point in recent two years. Combined with the recent dynamic changes in market share, it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of Zhongtong Express (2057. HK) and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ( Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) . SH).
Pay attention to the long-term investment value of high-quality development tracks such as low-carbon transportation and multimodal transport. Speed up the adjustment of transportation structure and develop multimodal transport, mainly to promote the transfer of medium and long-distance highway freight to railway and waterway with low carbon intensity (the carbon emission intensity coefficient of highway, water and railway is about 10:2:1). It is suggested to pay attention to the multimodal transport service provider Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co.Ltd(603565) ( Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co.Ltd(603565) . SH) of domestic trade containers and Jiayou International Logistics Co.Ltd(603871) ( Jiayou International Logistics Co.Ltd(603871) . SH) of cross-border multimodal transport of fine farming.
Risk tips:
Risks caused by repeated covid-19 epidemic, changes in epidemic prevention and control policies, changes in transportation policies, etc.
