Event: the industry released the production and sales data of household air conditioners online. In April 2022, the production of household air conditioners was 15.766 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.21%, and the sales were 15.488 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.87%. Among them, 7.767 million units were shipped for domestic sales, a year-on-year increase of 2.26%, and 7.6418 million units were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 0.51%. The inventory was 213774 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%.
Domestic sales increased slightly year-on-year in April. From the retail side, the prosperity of air conditioning demand in April was not high, and the sales volume and sales volume decreased year-on-year. According to ovicloud, the online and offline retail volume of air conditioners decreased by 7.86% and 29.67% year-on-year in April, and the retail volume decreased by 1.7% and 22.89% year-on-year. With the arrival of the peak season, we believe that the reason for the weak year-on-year rebound in the retail demand of the air conditioning industry after the peak season is 26.4% year-on-year. According to the air conditioning production scheduling data, the production scheduling of household air conditioning industry in May 2022 was about 16.58 million units, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last year, of which domestic sales increased by 12.4% over the same period last year. In terms of export sales, the year-on-year decline was 0.51% in April, and the market became weaker. From the production scheduling data, the export sales expectation in May was weak, and the production scheduling decreased by 5.5% year-on-year.
Both inside and outside Haier grew rapidly. In terms of brands, in April, Midea’s performance was weak, Gree was stable, and Haier’s domestic and foreign sales grew rapidly. In April, Midea’s performance was inferior to that of the industry, and its total sales volume decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, including domestic sales decreased by 5% year-on-year and exports decreased by 16.7% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth of export sales was 33.3%, and the total domestic sales decreased by 1.5%. Haier performed well. Both domestic and foreign sales achieved a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 20% in total sales, including a year-on-year increase of 16.47% in domestic sales and 28.57% in exports. Except for the three major white power companies, other brands are obviously differentiated. The export sales of Hisense and TCL have continued the rapid growth trend, and the domestic sales of oaks have achieved high growth.
Industry concentration decreased slightly. In April, the market share of total shipments of Midea, Gree and Haier changed by -4.07, -0.3 and 1.49pct year-on-year, of which the domestic market share changed by -2.43, -0.26 and 1.55pct year-on-year, and the export market share changed by -5.7, -0.55 and 3.21pct year-on-year. From January to April, the market share of total shipments of Midea, Gree and Haier changed by -0.38, -1.32 and 1.13 PCT year-on-year, of which the domestic market share changed by 1.27, -2.78 and 0.75 PCT year-on-year, and the export market share changed by -1.84, 0.25 and 0.43 PCT year-on-year. From the perspective of concentration, the domestic sales CR3 of air conditioners in April was 79.31%, a slight decrease of 1.14 PCT year-on-year, and the cumulative domestic sales CR3 from January to April decreased by 0.76% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: air conditioning sales increased slightly in April. With the arrival of the peak season of air conditioning sales, dealers are more willing to prepare goods. In addition, the industry has good expectations for the rebound of market demand after unsealing, and the domestic shipment of air conditioning is expected to continue to grow year-on-year. Export sales are facing certain downward pressure due to the weakening of overseas demand. Recently, the rising pressure of raw material prices has slowed down, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar, and the manufacturers continue to raise the price of products. The improvement of industry profits is expected to continue. Due to many adjustments, the valuation of white electric faucet is at a low position in recent five years and the safety margin is high. Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ( Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) ( Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) ) and Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ( Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ) are recommended.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuation; Risk of export order transfer; The impact of the epidemic exceeds the expected risk.
