Core view
Agricultural sector: layout the livestock and poultry cycle and grasp the new layout of seed industry
In recent years, the total output value of China’s agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry has increased steadily. Standing at the moment, we believe that the investment opportunities in the agricultural sector are prominent: in terms of the breeding chain, the reversal of the pig cycle is imminent, and the best stage of bargain hunting layout in the breeding sector is coming; In terms of the planting chain, the bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) boom is rising, and the planting and seed sectors benefit directly. At the same time, the implementation of GM is accelerated, and the seed industry sector is expected to usher in a new stage of development. Specifically:
(1) pig chain: continue to be optimistic about the cycle reversal logic, and it is expected to start capacity reversal from the end of 2022 to the first half of 2023. We believe that the farmers’ optimistic attitude towards the pig price in the second half of the year will make the rebound of pig price in the second half of the year continue to be lower than expected, and the cash of the industry is expected to be further depleted by the end of 2022. After the pig price is lower than expected, the farmers’ confidence may change, the industry will accelerate the de production capacity, and the pig cycle will usher in a reversal highlight moment. In the short term, pig prices may usher in a seasonal rebound, which will weaken the logic of capacity removal. If the sector callback, it should be the best stage for the layout of the breeding sector. At the same time, the slaughtering and meat products industry benefited from the decline of pig prices, the reduction of raw material costs and the improvement of superimposed capacity utilization. The profit is expected to further improve in 2022.
(2) bird chain: the profit of yellow chicken is better, and the profit of white chicken may reverse at the bottom. The big opportunity of the poultry sector is generally driven by the demand side, and the reversal of the pig cycle is expected to boost the poultry sector in the future. At present, the valuation level of white feather chicken sector is at the lowest in history, and it is optimistic about the valuation repair of the industry.
(3) it is optimistic about the improvement of the valuation margin of the industry in the short term and the improvement of the valuation margin of the industry in the short term.
(4) seed industry: optimistic about the resonance between sector cycle and growth. In terms of cycle, the bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) boom continued to rise, and the seed industry continued to benefit from profit cashing as a post cycle. In terms of growth, China is optimistic about the implementation of genetically modified seeds in a reasonable, orderly and safe manner under the background of the global potential food security crisis, and is optimistic about the substantive promotion of the variety end in 2022, which is expected to further open a new space for the growth of the seed industry.
Investment value of CSI agriculture theme index: focus on the core targets in the field of Agriculture
CSI agriculture theme index selects 50 stocks of listed companies whose businesses involve agricultural machinery, chemical fertilizers and pesticides, livestock and poultry drugs, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , meat and dairy products from Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares to reflect the overall performance of the stocks of listed companies with agriculture theme. (1) From the perspective of historical performance, since 2010, the yield of China Securities agricultural theme index is better than that of Shanghai Securities Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and other market indexes. (2) The weight distribution of the stock market value of the components of the CSI agricultural theme index is relatively balanced, covering sub industries such as food processing, livestock and poultry breeding and feed. As of May 13, 2022, the top ten heavyweights of the index accounted for 58.67%, including leading companies in high-quality agricultural industries such as Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) .
China Securities agricultural theme ETF: actively layout the boom reversal track
Management company: a wide range of fields and professional management. Excellent fund management and operation ability is one of the biggest advantages of Huaxia Fund.
Fund manager: good performance and rich experience. Li Jun, the proposed fund manager of Huaxia CSI agricultural theme ETF fund, has a Bachelor of law and a master of business administration from Peking University, and has been an investment manager for 4.4 years. At present, he has 26 funds under management, with a scale of 31.4 billion.
Huaxia CSI agricultural theme ETF (516813. Of) is a fund product that closely tracks the yield of CSI agricultural theme index, providing investors with a target index investment tool with transparent management and low cost.
Risk tip: economic growth is down, inflation is rising rapidly, and overseas stock markets are impacted by the decline.
