Shipping: this week, the CCFI composite index reported 313578 points, up 1.5% month on month, of which the US West Route reported 259850 points, up 7.7% month on month, and the European line reported 497800 points, down 1.4% month on month. Recently, with the alliance’s suspension of flight control classes and the resumption of work and production in Shanghai, the freight rate has stabilized and rebounded, and the industry is expected to usher in the tide of cargo volume in the short term. In the long run, in 21 years, due to the owners’ cautious expansion of transport capacity, the industry supply and demand will continue to be mismatched in 22-23 years, the overall profitability of the industry will remain at a high level, and the current valuation has strong attraction.
Airports: civil aviation operations are expected to gradually recover from the bottom of the dark valley, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is gradually falling, the resumption of production and work is orderly promoted, passenger flights are gradually restarted, and the demand for civil aviation continues to recover. The civil aviation rescue policy is expected to provide cash subsidies for China’s passenger flights, which is good for the aviation department to alleviate the short-term financial pressure. This week, the airspace adjustment plan for the vast channels in Beijing was officially implemented, which provided significant help for airlines to optimize routes, reduce costs and increase efficiency. In the long term, we continue to be optimistic about the general direction of the reversal of civil aviation supply and demand after the impact of the epidemic has completely subsided. Under the resonance stimulation of the continuous introduction of low transport capacity, ticket price reform and historical high seating rate, the performance of civil aviation is expected to reach a record high. We continue to recommend sector industry investment opportunities and three major airlines, spring and autumn and auspicious. At present, the performance of the hub airport is under pressure due to the reduction of international passengers. Once the door is opened, the performance of the airport will be greatly improved. The valuation system of the airport has been gradually transferred to consumer stocks. Driven by the logic of tax-free consumption, it is difficult to return to the valuation system of public utility stocks before 2017, continue to be optimistic about the long-term investment value of the hub airport, and recommend Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Express delivery: according to statistics, on May 18, the express delivery business volume of the express delivery industry in Shanghai was 2.53 million, and the delivery business volume was 2.14 million, which has recovered to about one fifth of the usual daily average level. Recently, the business volume of all express listed companies nationwide has also begun to become regular or close to becoming regular year-on-year, with a good recovery trend. The negative impact of the short-term epidemic is one-off, and the demand for e-commerce express delivery is more restrained than disappeared. We believe that after the epidemic recovers, the demand for express delivery is expected to rebound. Continue to recommend Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) and S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) .
Logistics & small and medium-sized stocks: select high-quality stocks in the logistics industry and recommend Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) performance increased continuously and continued to be recommended; Add coverage Shanghai W-Ibeda High Tech.Group Co.Ltd(688071) , recommend Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) , Anhui Anli Material Technology Co.Ltd(300218) , Hangzhou Honghua Digital Technology Stock Company Ltd(688789) , Shanghai W-Ibeda High Tech.Group Co.Ltd(688071) , pay attention to Kaili Catalyst & New Materials Co.Ltd(688269) , Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) .
Investment suggestion: with the marginal decline of the epidemic, the resumption of production and work in Shanghai and Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to advance. In the transportation sector this week, the public transport sector rose sharply due to the injection of duty-free assets in Hainan, while the rest rose generally. The marginal improvement of supply chain is expected to continue to be the main line of leading investment. Transportation recommends Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , Yuantong, Shunfeng and airports; Small and medium-sized stocks continue to be optimistic about Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) , Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) and Hangzhou Honghua Digital Technology Stock Company Ltd(688789) , which have benefited from digital printing for a long time.
Risk tip: the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, and the oil price and exchange rate fluctuate violently
