Matters:
On May 20, Byd Company Limited(002594) released the e-platform 3.0 model seal. The whole series is equipped with panoramic sky curtain as standard ( Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) supply), and its 4WD performance version (pre selling price of 289800 yuan after subsidy) can be equipped with the light sensing sky curtain of EC flexible solid-state film technology path (Fuyao purchases the dimming film of Guangyi Technology), or it will become the largest EC light sensing sky curtain (optional 8600 yuan). We believe that with its functions in heat insulation, sound insulation, entertainment and safety, dimming glass will give panoramic sky glass more functions, and the development of dimming sky glass for new energy vehicles can be expected.
The technical path of automotive dimming glass can be PDLC (polymer dispersed liquid crystal), SPD (suspended particle) and EC (electrochromic). All three belong to electronically controlled dimming glass, but there are differences in principle and effect. PDLC is the earliest, the most advanced and mature technology and the lowest cost. The vast majority of dimming glass manufacturers in China use this scheme; EC has low haze, low energy consumption, good heat insulation effect, continuous dimming and medium cost. This scheme is used by electric intelligent vehicles represented by extreme helium 001 and aionsplus, and the scheme selected by Byd Company Limited(002594) seals is also EC scheme; Due to its high power consumption and high cost, SPD is mainly used in high-end vehicles represented by Mercedes Benz.
This is the sixth tracking topic of the automotive glass industry. Previously, we analyzed and discussed the upgrading trend of the automotive ceiling glass and the technical path of the dimming glass in the fifth tracking topic of the industry, the fifth tracking topic of the automotive glass industry: dimming glass connecting the ceiling, the prospect is promising.
Guoxin automobile view: under the background of automobile electrification and intelligence, the industry opportunities focus on 1) incremental / upgraded parts; 2) The independent rise of the industrial chain is carried out in two main lines. Under the main line of incremental / upgraded parts, the automotive glass naturally has the advantage of clamping position (accounting for one third of the body surface area and surrounding the passengers). The early-stage upgrading focuses on the HUD of the front gear and the canopy of the roof. In the medium term, the penetration of the dimming glass is expected to become the Beijing Vastdata Technology Co.Ltd(603138) output carrier of the ecological application end in the vehicle in the long term (carrying the information outside the central control screen), It has great growth space (the value of a single car ranges from 70015 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) +) Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) with the growth of China's automobile industry for many years, with extreme focus and strong cost control ability, it has grown into a global leader in automotive glass (31% market share), and its profitability far exceeds that of global competitors. In recent years, the market share has accelerated, and the superposition of high value-added products such as sky glass and HUD has led to the improvement of ASP in the industry. Under the logic of rising volume and price, it is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of 15-20% of operating performance in 3-5 years.
In the second quarter of 2022, under the influence of the Shanghai epidemic on the production scheduling of the industrial chain in the Yangtze River Delta, according to the data of China Automobile Association, in April, the output of the automobile industry was - 46% year-on-year, chain on chain - 46%, and the sales volume was - 48% and - 47% year-on-year. We expect that the revenue and profit of Q2 of most parts were under pressure month on month, while Fuyao's gross profit margin and financial expense were improved due to the decline of soda ash price and the depreciation of RMB, and the performance of the parent profit side may surpass the industry, At the same time, the energy (natural gas) cost of overseas competitors has risen sharply, Fuyao's relatively stable gas consumption cost has brought great relative competitive advantage, and the market share is expected to further increase. Maintain the profit forecast. It is expected that the profits in 22-24 years will be 4.8/57/7.1 billion respectively, corresponding to PE 20 / 17 / 14x respectively, and maintain the buy rating.
Comments:
Byd Company Limited(002594) released e-platform 3.0 model seal. The whole series is equipped with panoramic sky screen as standard, and the 4WD performance version can be equipped with EC light sensitive sky screen
On May 20, Byd Company Limited(002594) held a launch conference, released CTB battery body integration technology, and announced that Byd Company Limited(002594) seals officially opened pre-sale Byd Company Limited(002594) seals will adopt e-platform 3.0 and provide four configurations, with a maximum endurance of 700 kilometers and an acceleration of 3.8 seconds at 100 kilometers. As Byd Company Limited(002594) another popular model, seal is the first e-platform 3.0 model equipped with CTB technology, which uses CTB battery body integration technology and integrates design aesthetics. In terms of the details of the sky curtain, the top of the car body is equipped with an integrated panoramic sky curtain without partition ( Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) supply), with a size of 1236 1656MM. The 4WD performance version (pre price of 289800 yuan after subsidy) can be equipped with the light sensing sky curtain of EC flexible solid-state film technology path (Fuyao purchases the dimming film of Guangyi Technology), or it will become the largest EC light sensing sky curtain (optional 8600 yuan), The high-grade transparent texture and the interior full of marine elements are mutually connected to fill the atmosphere of the whole vehicle.
Dimming glass takes over the sky curtain, and the development prospect is promising
In the automotive field, there are three main types of dimming glass. According to the order of mass production time, they are PDLC (polymer dispersed liquid crystal), SPD (suspended particle) and EC (electrochromic). They all belong to electronically controlled dimming glass, but there are differences in principle and effect.
In contrast, 1) in terms of dimming effect, PDLC has two basic states: transparent and atomized. Even if the glass is atomized, a large amount of light will pass through, that is, transparent but opaque, while EC and SPD can continuously adjust the light passing rate between transparent and colored states; 2) In terms of aesthetic effect, PDLC can produce changeable transparent or atomized graphic effect on glass, which has good design and expansion properties, while EC and SPD cannot design graphic effect; 3) In terms of thermal insulation effect, PDLC has limited thermal insulation effect. Improving the thermal insulation effect can add a layer of Low-E glass, while SPD and EC technology have good thermal insulation effect; 4) In terms of privacy effect, PDLC has good privacy protection effect. It can block objects 10cm away from the glass, and only the fuzzy shadow of objects can be seen within 10cm. However, the privacy function of EC or SPD glass is relatively limited. Taking architectural dimming glass as an example, in some cases, for example, when you look indoors through the glass at night, you can still see the fuzzy shadow of the interior.
Overall, PDLC is the earliest, the most advanced and mature technology and the lowest cost. The vast majority of dimming glass manufacturers in China use this scheme; EC has low haze, low energy consumption, good heat insulation effect, continuous dimming and medium cost. This scheme is used by electric intelligent vehicles represented by extreme helium 001 and aionsplus; Due to its high power consumption and high cost, SPD is mainly used in high-end vehicles represented by Mercedes Benz.
The reason why intelligent dimming glass began to be used in electric intelligent vehicles represented by extreme helium 001 and aionsplus is mainly due to its rich functions, which can be summarized as aesthetics, privacy, practicability (heat and sound insulation), entertainment and safety. 1) Aesthetics: the speed of innovation of electric intelligent vehicles is accelerated, and vehicle manufacturers need more elements to create differentiated selling points, and the dimming function can improve the appearance of roof curtain glass and meet the aesthetic needs of users; 2) Privacy: the dimming glass can intelligently adjust the transparency of the glass, so that it has excellent privacy protection function. There is no need to install sunshade and occupy the space in the car; 3) Practicability: the dimming glass has high heat insulation effect, which can block more than 99% of ultraviolet and more than 98% of infrared, shield part of infrared and reduce heat radiation and transmission. In addition, the dimming film and film in the middle of the dimming glass have sound damping effect, which can partially block noise; 4) Entertainment: the dimming glass is a very excellent projection screen. With projection, the imaging effect is clear and outstanding. The car is immediately turned into a mobile cinema and can enjoy large films anytime and anywhere; 5) Safety: the dimming film and film in the middle of the dimming glass also improves the impact resistance of the glass, can prevent cracking and prevent debris splashing, has good impact resistance, and enhances the safety performance of the car.
Consumer research data show that the car skylight is an important consideration for users to buy a car, and users have strong stickiness. Safety and thermal insulation effect are important performance indicators that users pay attention to, which coincide with the application of dimmable glass. According to the Research Report on the consumption trend of automobile skylight in China market in 2021, skylight is an important option in the configuration considered in car purchase, accounting for 70%, ranking second below the reversing image. The proportion of users' willingness to buy skylights again is 95.3%, which is higher than that in 2019, indicating that there is strong user stickiness in the application of skylights. In terms of functionality, the top three factors that users pay attention to when purchasing skylights are ventilation, light and safety, of which the proportion of safety has increased by 17.4pct compared with 2019. In addition, 71.5% of the total users in this survey pay attention to the skylight shading system because it can prevent sun and heat, and protect privacy.
Quantitatively measure the market scale of panoramic sky curtain and panoramic sky curtain glass with dimming function:
1) panoramic sky glass: benefiting from electric intelligence, the volume and price of panoramic sky glass have increased. At present, the penetration rate of panoramic sky glass is 5%. The continuous penetration of new energy passenger vehicles drives the upward penetration rate of panoramic sky glass. In addition, it will gradually become a trend for traditional vehicles to carry panoramic sky glass. It is expected that the penetration rate of panoramic sky glass will be 25% in 2025. In addition, the panoramic sky glass with more functions (coating, dimming, etc.) drives the growth of ASP. Under the trend of double increase in volume and price, it is expected that the global market scale of panoramic sky curtain glass will increase from 3.68 billion yuan in 2021 to 28.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 67%; China's market size will increase from 1.38 billion yuan in 2021 to 11.21 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 69%.
2) panoramic skyline glass with dimming function: benefiting from the continuous penetration in the panoramic skyline, the dimming glass will contribute an important increment. Considering that the current market models equipped with panoramic curtain glass with dimming function are concentrated in electric intelligent vehicles represented by Jihe 001, Landu free and aionsplus, the current dimming glass is expected to account for about 5% of panoramic curtain glass models (it is expected that the sales of dimming glass models will be less than 50000 in 2021 and about 150000 in 2022). Considering the subsequent carrying willingness of the main engine plant, it is expected that the proportion will reach 30% in 2025, The corresponding global market size will increase from 430 million yuan in 2021 to 14.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 143%; China's market size will increase from 160 million yuan in 2021 to 5.83 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 145%.
Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) : PDLC and EC dimming ceiling glass have been supplied with mainstream independent brand electric smart vehicles
Fuyao dimming glass products have a comprehensive layout and have been supplied with mainstream independent brand electric intelligent vehicles. At present, Fuyao's dimming glass products can be divided into PDLC dimming glass, thermochromic glass and EC dimming glass. As an optional part, PDLC dimming panoramic ceiling glass has been installed in Landu free, which can realize 10 levels of adjustable transmittance and brightness and isolate 99% of ultraviolet light; Thermochromic glass can be customized with a variety of glass colors, and the color can change with temperature; EC dimming sky curtain is a new heavy dimming glass launched by Fuyao in 2021. It has the characteristics of low haze, intelligent induction automatic dimming, heat insulation and ultraviolet insulation. It adopts the EC electrochromic technology of Guangyi to realize gradual color change dimming. At present, it has been carried in polar helium 001, GAC aionsplus and other models. In 2022, Byd Company Limited(002594) heavy model seal 4WD performance version (pre price of 289800 yuan after subsidy) can be equipped with the light sensitive sky curtain of EC flexible solid-state film technology path (Fuyao purchases the dimming film of Guangyi Technology), or it will become the largest EC light sensitive sky curtain (8600 yuan).
Investment suggestions:
Under the background of electric and intelligent vehicles, industry opportunities revolve around 1) incremental / upgraded parts; 2) The independent rise of the industrial chain is carried out in two main lines. Under the main line of incremental / upgraded parts, the automotive glass naturally has the advantage of clamping position (accounting for one third of the body surface area and surrounding the passengers). The early-stage upgrading focuses on the HUD of the front gear and the canopy of the roof. In the medium term, the penetration of the dimming glass is expected to become the Beijing Vastdata Technology Co.Ltd(603138) output carrier of the ecological application end in the vehicle in the long term (carrying the information outside the central control screen), It has great growth space (the value of a single car ranges from 70015 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) +).
Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) with the growth of China's automobile industry for many years, with extreme focus and strong cost control ability, it has grown into a global leader in automotive glass (31% market share), and its profitability far exceeds that of global competitors. In recent years, the market share has accelerated, and the superposition of high value-added products such as ceiling glass and HUD has led to the improvement of ASP in the industry. Under the logic of rising volume and price, it is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of 15-20% of operating performance in 3-5 years.
In the second quarter of 2022, under the influence of the Shanghai epidemic on the production scheduling of the industrial chain in the Yangtze River Delta, according to the data of China Automobile Association, in April, the output of the automobile industry was - 46% year-on-year, chain on chain - 46%, and the sales volume was - 48% and - 47% year-on-year. We expect that the revenue and profit of Q2 of most parts were under pressure month on month, while Fuyao's gross profit margin and financial expense were improved due to the decline of soda ash price and the depreciation of RMB, and the performance of the parent profit side may surpass the industry, At the same time, the energy (natural gas) cost of overseas competitors has risen sharply, Fuyao's relatively stable gas consumption cost has brought great relative competitive advantage, and the market share is expected to further increase.
Maintain the profit forecast. It is expected that the profits in 22-24 years will be 4.8/57/7.1 billion respectively, corresponding to PE 20 / 17 / 14x respectively, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips:
The uncertainty of overseas epidemic affects the progress of the company's auto glass business and Sam integration.
