Home furnishing: with the expectation of fundamental improvement and superimposed with low valuation, the all-round layout of head enterprises is expected to achieve bright growth. The real estate policy continued to make efforts. The central government lowered the lower limit of the first house loan interest rate, breaking the lower limit of LPR interest rate, and the uncertainty of the real estate market continued to increase. In terms of epidemic situation, the epidemic situation only disturbs the short-term operation of household. We believe that household demand has the attribute of rigid demand. It is expected that it will be released in a centralized manner with the improvement of the epidemic situation in the future. Since this year, the orders of home decoration companies have been full. It is expected that the orders of home decoration companies will be guaranteed throughout the year, and the whole decoration channel is expected to continue to grow brightly. Under the guidance of big home strategy, head home enterprises continue to promote category integration, strengthen traffic competitiveness, and have significant growth. Superimposed on the epidemic situation, raw material prices and other factors, small and medium-sized enterprises continue to withdraw, and the industry concentration will accelerate. Meanwhile, the valuation of the household goods sector is at a historical low. On May 20, the pettm of the household goods sector reached 29.86, with a quantile of 27.73%, and the valuation is gradually repaired. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ], [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ].
Packaging: the market is better controlled, the profit is restored, and the business is vertically expanded and integrated. Paper packaging: benefiting from the trend of environmental protection, the paper packaging industry is expected to expand, but the market concentration is low and needs to be improved; Leading enterprises began to transform from manufacturers to packaging solution providers, and their business achieved vertical development. Plastic packaging: the market scale is growing steadily and the market concentration is low; Ordinary plastic packaging is widely used downstream, with fluctuating demand and fierce competition; The technical barrier of special materials is high, and the head enterprises build a strong moat. Metal packaging: the rise in the price of raw materials and the improvement of supply and demand pattern will improve the profitability of enterprises; Beverages and drinks are the main downstream applications of metal packaging. Compared with overseas, there is a broad space for China to improve the canning rate of beer. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) ], [ Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) ] and [ Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ].
Light industry consumption: the e-cigarette industry is growing significantly, and the stationery industry market continues to expand. E-cigarette: the national standard will be officially implemented, the industry threshold will be raised, and the share of leading cities will be increased. At the same time, the international market is expanding steadily and the demand is broad; China has the largest group of smokers in the world, and the penetration rate of e-cigarettes is low. With the development of industry norms, the Chinese market is expected to grow steadily. Stationery: consumption upgrading will continue to benefit the growth of C-end business. At the same time, driven by procurement policy, the market prospect of b-end office direct sales business is broad; Chenguang continued to optimize the traditional core business layout, adjust the product structure, and Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) coordinated development. The business of large retail stores continued to improve, and the office direct sales business grew rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to: the leader of e-cigarette industry [SIMORE international], the leader of stationery industry [Chenguang shares], the economic beneficiary of camping [ Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) ].
Papermaking: the pressure on the industry has accelerated, the concentration has increased, the pulp price has risen, and the performance elasticity of downstream enterprises can be expected. Waste paper: as of May 20, the price of waste yellow paperboard was 2357 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week; The price of corrugated box board was 3741 yuan / ton and 4852 yuan / ton respectively, down 1.16% and 0.41% respectively compared with last week. Pulp and paper: as of May 20, the prices of broad-leaved pulp, coniferous pulp and chemical mechanical pulp were 6584, 7404 and 5496 yuan / ton respectively, an increase of 103, 13 and 13 yuan / ton respectively compared with last week; The prices of double offset paper, double copper paper and white cardboard were 6138, 5590 and 6440 yuan / ton respectively, with changes of – 0.2%, 0 and 0 respectively compared with last week. Special paper: in the short term, the raw materials of special paper are mainly pulp and chemical raw materials. The rise of pulp price supports the continuous rise of special paper price, and the performance flexibility of head enterprises can be expected; In the medium and long term, the downstream demand of special paper continues to expand, the competition pattern is good, and the leading enterprises continue to carry out capacity construction and layout self-sufficient pulp, with significant long-term growth of performance. It is suggested to pay attention to: pulp and paper is the leading [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]; Special paper faucet [ Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) ], [ Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) ], [ Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) ].
Risk tip: the risk that the economic growth is less than expected; Risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
