Market review:
Last week (may 16-may 20, 2022), the Shenwan machinery equipment industry index rose by + 3.17%, and the CSI 300 index rose by + 2.23%. The machinery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.94pct. 30 sectors of Shenwan’s 31 primary industries rose, and the mechanical equipment industry ranked 10th, with the overall performance in the upper reaches.
Key data update:
1) photovoltaic equipment: China’s photovoltaic installed capacity maintained a high increase in April. In April, China’s PV installed capacity increased by 3.67gw, a year-on-year increase of + 109.7%. From January to April, the total newly installed capacity of PV in China was 16.88gw, a year-on-year increase of + 138.4%. 2) Semiconductor equipment: in April, China imported 7689 sets of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 0.3%; The import amount was US $2.768 billion, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 2.70%. 3) Industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : in April, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output was 32535 sets, with a year-on-year increase of 7.81%.
Key points of the industry:
Photovoltaic equipment: the industrialization of n-type silicon wafer is accelerated, the cost is reduced, and the production expansion of hjt is accelerated. This week, the quotation of 150 micron and 130 micron 210n silicon wafers was added in central. The industrialization and slicing of N silicon wafers continued to promote, which is conducive to the continued cost reduction of n-type batteries. In terms of mass production of hjt cells, Huasheng has expanded the production capacity of n-type silicon wafers, cells and modules, promoted the integrated construction, and promoted the process of thin-film and cost reduction of heterojunction cells: at present, Huasheng has invested in the construction of 1.8gwn silicon wafer factory, and announced that it will expand the production of phase III 4.8gw double-sided microcrystalline heterojunction project. It is expected that all equipment will be moved in, commissioned and put into operation in q1-q3 in 23 years, and plans to invest in the construction of 5GW high-efficiency heterojunction photovoltaic cells and modules in Dali. Be optimistic about the battery module equipment link. The battery equipment link mainly focuses on the performance increment brought by new technologies. The industrialization of new batteries such as TOPCON, hjt and XBC will continue in 22 years. The component equipment link pays attention to the demand for equipment replacement under the penetration of flake + multi main grid propulsion and new battery technology.
Construction machinery: the epidemic affects the commencement and completion of real estate. The relaxation of real estate policies and the demand for engineering equipment are expected to improve marginally. In April, affected by the epidemic, the new construction area and completed area of real estate in China were – 44.2% and – 14.2% year-on-year. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of real estate policies, the marginal demand for construction machinery is expected to recover. Under the condition of low base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate in the second and third quarters may become positive.
Lithium battery equipment: the localization rate of lithium battery equipment reached 85% in 21 years, and the manufacturers went to sea frequently. GGII predicts that the localization rate of lithium battery equipment will reach more than 85% in 2021. It is expected that the share of domestic lithium battery equipment will further increase in the new round of power battery expansion cycle. Domestic lithium battery equipment actively went to sea. Hengyi energy won another lithium battery equipment order from European battery manufacturer automobilecells company and will provide it with an overall solution for the back section of 13gwh lithium battery. With the increase of R & D investment and rapid improvement of technical level of domestic lithium battery equipment manufacturers, the share of domestic lithium battery equipment will be further improved, and force the global market at the same time.
Semiconductor equipment: the downstream demand is strong, and the substitution of domestic equipment is expected to accelerate. In April 2022, China imported 7689 sets of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 0.3%; The import amount was US $2.768 billion, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 2.70%. The proportion of domestic semiconductor equipment announced in Shanghai is about 37%, of which . At present, domestic semiconductor equipment has achieved technological breakthroughs in many subdivided fields. With the increase of downstream capital expenditure and domestic substitution, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of semiconductor equipment with the continuous improvement of localization rate.
Risk factors: the downstream demand is less than expected, the industry competition intensifies the risk, and the epidemic disturbance risk.
