Industrial metal prices are rising, and China’s demand recovery is expected
This week, the contradiction of energy supply in Europe intensified again, causing the continued rise of natural gas and oil prices, and the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine reached an impasse; Affected by this, industrial metal prices generally rose, and metal inventories continued to decline. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the progress of China’s resumption of work and production may be accelerated. At the same time, LPR decreased by 15bp, the real estate industry is expected to recover, and the demand for industrial metals is expected to accelerate the recovery. 1) Aluminum: China’s production capacity remains stable, demand recovery has shown signs, and social inventories continue to decline; Indonesia announced that it would ban the export of bauxite in the future, and the aluminum price is expected to rise in the short term. 2) Copper: at present, the supply of copper concentrate is sufficient, and the processing fee is expected to remain high; The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has rebounded, the demand has warmed up, and the rhythm of resumption of work is worthy of attention. Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.84% to close at 71900 yuan / ton this week; Aluminum rose 3.48% to close at 20820 yuan / ton; Lead rose 0.07% to close at 15005 yuan / ton; Zinc rose 1.52% to close at 25685 yuan / ton; Tin rose 0.24% to close at 284190 yuan / ton; Nickel rose 6.12% to close at 212800 yuan / ton. Recommended concerns: Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Jiao Zuo Wan Fang Aluminum Manufacturing Co.Ltd(000612) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) , Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials And Technology Co.Ltd(002171) .
The new energy market is still strong and the downstream demand recovery is flexible
In April, despite the impact of the epidemic, the sales of new energy vehicles still increased by 43.9% year-on-year, and the market prospect is still optimistic; With the improvement of the epidemic situation, downstream enterprises may accelerate the resumption of work and production, and the demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to accelerate the rebound. At the weekend, the auction of 54.29% of the shares of snowway ended, with a transaction price of 2.002 billion. The delanongba mine involved contained 293200 tons of lithium oxide resources (about 725100 tons of LCE); The transaction once again confirms the strong cost support of lithium salt price, and lithium price is expected to remain high. In addition, Pilbara’s lithium concentrate auction on May 24 also deserves attention. This week, the price of lithium salt continued to run smoothly. The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 476400 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.2%; The average price of battery grade lithium hydroxide was 490900 yuan / ton, the same as last week. Recommended concerns: Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
Overseas demand for magnesium remains strong, and the price of magnesium is expected to fluctuate at a high level under the expectation of production reduction
According to the customs data, the export of various magnesium products reached 42400 tons in April, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and the export of magnesium products from January to April reached 171400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. This week, the price of magnesium was adjusted back to about 33000 yuan / ton; At present, the downstream is more cautious about the high magnesium price, but the expectation that the environmental protection policy will limit the output is still strong, and the magnesium price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level. Recommended attention: Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co.Ltd(002182) .
The pressure on the U.S. economy peaked, and the gold price has bottom support
Although the US retail data in April is still good, under the influence of the expected interest rate increase, US stocks fell significantly this week, with Dow Jones and Nasdaq falling – 2.90% and – 3.82% respectively, suggesting that the US economic growth pressure is high and the economy may peak; Affected by this, there was strong risk aversion in the market and the price of gold rebounded. This week, spot gold in London rose 1.94% to close at US $184574/oz, while the US dollar index fell – 1.36% to close at 103.03; COMEX gold rose 2.04% to US $184210 per ounce this week. With the continuous strengthening of economic peaking pressure, although the rise of real interest rate inhibits the upward trend of gold price, gold price has bottom support, and it is expected that gold price will maintain a volatile trend. Recommended concerns: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Zhongjin Gold Corp.Ltd(600489) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: the progress of resumption of work and production is less than expected, the demand recovery is less than expected, and the epidemic situation is repeated.
