Crude oil: oil prices rose and fell this week. It is expected that they will remain high in the short term and shock the supply side. EU Member States failed to reach an agreement on the proposal of oil embargo on Russia, but the game continues, and the current geopolitical situation is still uncertain. On the demand side, affected by high inflation, the tightening of monetary policy by the global central bank and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, OPEC lowered its oil demand growth forecast in 2022 by 310000 barrels / day to 3.36 million barrels / day in May. As of May 20, Brent and WTI oil prices reached $112.55/barrel and $110.28/barrel respectively, up 0.9% and down 0.19% respectively compared with last week; As for the weekly average price, the weekly average price rose by 4.67% and 6.38% respectively month on month. Since the beginning of the year, Brent and WTI oil prices have increased by 44.70% and 46.63% respectively. At present, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States is still at the low level in recent five years, the peak of travel in the United States in summer is coming, and the current geopolitical situation is still uncertain. We judge that oil prices will remain high and volatile in the short term.
Inventory conversion: this week’s crude oil has a positive return and propane has a negative return. According to the model we built, the average profit and loss of this week’s crude oil inventory conversion is 211 yuan / ton and 386 yuan / ton year to date; The average profit and loss of propane inventory conversion this week is – 164 yuan / ton, and 261 yuan / ton since the beginning of the year.
Price rise and fall: the market is weak this week, and the price is still at a medium high level. Among the 182 products we focus on tracking, a total of 53 products have increased compared with last week, accounting for about 29%; 31% of the product prices were flat, and 40% of the product prices fell. On the whole, the price performance of chemicals during the week was weak, but the overall price was still in the middle and high range.
Price difference rise and fall: structural differentiation continued, and monoammonium phosphate, urea and soda ash performed well. Among the 140 product price differences we focused on tracking, 64 price differences rose and 68 price differences fell compared with last week, with a stable overall performance. The price difference of DOP (o-xylene), PBT (PTA), viscose staple fiber (cotton linter), polyester chip (semi gloss) price difference (PTA), nylon chip price difference (benzene), tetrachloroethylene (calcium carbide), caprolactam price difference (benzene), urinary element price difference (gas head), monoammonium phosphate price difference (phosphate rock), polypropylene price difference (propane), etc. Among them, the price difference of monoammonium phosphate (phosphate rock) has rebounded significantly at the bottom recently. At present, the inventory of monoammonium phosphate enterprises is at a very low level. With the support of agricultural demand, production enterprises receive limited collection, traders’ shipments are stable, and the price difference is expected to continue to rebound. In addition, urea price difference (coal head entrained flow bed), heavy soda ash price difference (ammonia alkali method) and heavy soda ash price difference (combined alkali method) still perform well.
Investment suggestions 1) we are optimistic about the investment opportunities in the chemical fertilizer sector under the background of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price continuing to rise. We mainly recommend Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) . SZ), Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ( Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) . SH), etc. 2) We are optimistic about the investment opportunities of soda ash industry under the background of loose margin of real estate policy and good supply and demand. We mainly recommend Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) ( Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) . SZ), Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) ( Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) . SH), etc. 3) We are optimistic about the enterprises with mineral resources, the raw material end is basically not disturbed by the cost, and the product end price is at the middle and high level. We recommend Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) ( Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) . SH) and so on. 4) We are optimistic about the growth performance of leading enterprises with increased performance due to large-scale expansion, and recommend satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) . SZ), Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ( Shanghai Sanmao Enterprise (Group) Co.Ltd(600689) . SH), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), etc.
The risk indicates the risk that the production and marketing or demand of the product is less than expected, and the risk that the project reaches the production capacity is less than expected, etc.
