Core view
Market review: in April 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 fell 6.31% / 9.05% / 4.89% respectively, while CITIC commerce and retail industry fell 6.60%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.71pct. From the horizontal comparison of sectors, the commercial retail department is in the middle and upper reaches of the industry.
Consumption in Shanghai under the impact of the epidemic: the retail sales of social consumer goods reached 71.7 billion yuan (- 48.3%), with a total of 509.9 billion yuan (- 14.2%) from January to April, mainly due to the continuous expansion of the epidemic control area; From the perspective of commodity consumption structure, the proportion of retail sales of food and use commodities increased to 28% (+ 4.0pct). From the perspective of volume price splitting, the CPI in Shanghai rose by 4.3% in April, mainly due to the sharp increase in the prices of food, tobacco and alcohol products; Excluding the factors of commodity retail price, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 50% year-on-year.
National social zero data tracking: local epidemics in many places combined with the radiation impact of Shanghai’s closure, the national retail sales of social consumer goods in April was 2948.3 billion yuan (- 11.1%); From January to April, the accumulative total was 138142 million yuan (- 0.2%). By category, in April, except for food and beverage and Chinese and Western medicine, the retail sales of multi category commodities increased negatively. From January to April, the most prosperous retail categories are beverages, grain and oil, Chinese and Western medicine, and the least prosperous are furniture, cars, clothing, shoes and hats.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the downward trend of national consumption is expected to be mainly caused by the decline of national commodity supply under the closure policy of the Yangtze River Delta epidemic and the obstruction of the supply chain. It is expected to improve gradually with the resumption of work and production in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to medium and strong supply chain enterprises in textile and clothing, gold and silver jewelry, cosmetics and other racetracks. After the control of the epidemic is lifted, it is expected to fully benefit from the release of consumer demand.
Risk warning: the national epidemic continues; Supply chain recovery is not as expected; Industry competition intensifies
