Highlights of this week
Byd Company Limited(002594) ranks first in Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales in mid April
The price of some new energy vehicle models rose in May, up to 20000
Q2 power battery enterprise profits ushered in an inflection point
GGII: in 2025, the market scale of China’s lithium battery middle segment will reach 41.5 billion yuan
Chongqing and Haichen new energy signed a 50gwh energy storage cell project
Lithium battery material price
Cobalt products: electrolytic cobalt (561000 yuan / ton, – 0.27%); Co3O4 (436000 yuan / ton, – 1.58%); Cobalt sulfate (117000 yuan / ton, – 1.68%);
Lithium products: metallic lithium (3.611 million yuan / ton, 0.35%); Lithium carbonate (495000 yuan / ton, – 1.59%), lithium hydroxide (492000 yuan / ton, 0.00%);
Nickel products: electrolytic nickel (227000 yuan / ton, 1.79%), nickel sulfate (50000 yuan / ton, 2.04%);
Midstream material: ternary positive electrode (523 power type: 368000 yuan / ton, 0.00%; 622 single crystal type: 395000 yuan / ton, 0.00%; 811 single crystal type: 423000 yuan / ton, 1.44%); Lithium iron phosphate (160000 yuan / ton, 0.00%); Negative electrode (artificial graphite (310320mah / g) 36000 yuan / ton, 0%; Artificial graphite (330340mah / g) 56000 yuan / ton, 0.00%; Artificial graphite (340360mah / g) 73000 yuan / ton, 0.00%); Diaphragm (7 + 2) μ M coating: 2.6 yuan / flat, 0.00%; 9+3 μ M coating 2.2 yuan / flat, 0.00%); Electrolyte (iron lithium type 98000 yuan / ton, – 2.00%; ternary type 98000 yuan / ton, – 7.55%; lithium hexafluorophosphate 435000 yuan / ton, – 7.45%)
Investment proposal and investment object
The resumption of production and work was just at that time, with a weak recovery month on month in May and a new starting point in June. The epidemic in Shanghai is coming to an end. The auto industry resumed work and production in late May, with a significant acceleration. The overall resumption rate of parts in Shanghai and Jiangsu is about 50%, the resumption rate of electric vehicle parts generally exceeds 70%, and the output of bottleneck parts has increased. Tesla plans to open in two shifts on the 23rd. The resumption rate of Volkswagen and GM is nearly 50%, and the entry rate of personnel continues to increase. In addition, the compound power of Changchun FAW is close to 80%, and the industrial chain is expected to gradually enter the normal level. From the rhythm of resumption of work, most car enterprises made significant progress in mid and late May. The data recovered weakly in May. The month on month elasticity in June will be very large, and the sales volume is expected to be about 400000; The stimulus policies for automobile sales after the epidemic, including automobile going to the countryside, subsidies, purchase tax extension and local subsidy terminal sales, will usher in a significant increase in demand in the second half of the year and maintain the expectation of 5.4 million vehicles in the whole year.
We don’t think it’s necessary to insist on the “medium and long-term” price rise of electric vehicles. The market demand for new energy vehicles began to release steadily without relying on the strong promotion of policies. The continuous upgrading of models and consumers’ acceptance of electrification are the strongest driving forces. Superimposed with the optimization and adjustment of policies, the new energy vehicle market is healthier.
In terms of midstream materials, the market has great concerns about demand, but under the current oversold or undervalued value of the sector as a whole, we believe that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year, whether 5 million or 6 million, will usher in a stage of continuous improvement month on month, which will bring systematic opportunities for the sector, but the deductive logic will vary under different sales volumes. At present, the sector still prefers diaphragm, ternary positive and negative links.
In conclusion, it is suggested to pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , buy) and Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ( Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , buy) in the battery link; Midstream materials suggest to pay attention to Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ( Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , buy), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , not rated), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ( Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , buy), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , not rated).
Risk tips
Subsidies have declined, and the sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; Upstream raw material price fluctuation risk.
