E-commerce:
From January to April in 2022, the total amount of social retail sales was - 0.2% year-on-year and - 11.1% year-on-year in April alone. Among them, online consumption performed relatively well. From January to April, the online retail sales of physical goods were + 5.2% year-on-year. It is estimated that there was a slight decline of 1% year-on-year in April, mainly due to the impact of logistics obstruction under epidemic control; From January to April, the penetration rate of e-commerce was 23.8% (mom + 0.6pct, yoy + 1.6pct). Under the catalysis of the epidemic, residents' online consumption demand will continue to increase, and real-time retail and community group purchase may benefit. Real time retail e-commerce self operated mode, such as daily excellent fresh food, Ding Dong shopping, box horse, meituan shopping, etc; O2o platform modes, such as Jingdong home, taoxianda, hungry, meituan flash purchase, etc; Community group purchase, such as meituan optimization, buying more vegetables, panning vegetables, etc. Suggestion: JD group.
Traditional retail:
In April 2022, it is estimated that the offline retail sales will be 2.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 14%, of which the Minsheng insurance supply channel will rise against the trend. From January to April, the retail sales of supermarkets, convenience stores and professional stores in retail units above the quota will be + 3.6% / + 6.8% / + 2.5% year-on-year respectively. Retailers will speed up the resumption of work and production. Shanghai will resume business and market in stages from May 16, focusing on the post epidemic recovery opportunities of local commercial stocks in Shanghai. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co.Ltd(002561) Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) Shanghai Join Buy Co.Ltd(600838) 。
Gold jewelry:
Disturbed by the epidemic, gold, silver and jewelry commodities mainly sold offline are under pressure. The retail sales in April were - 26.7% year-on-year and + 0.2% year-on-year from January to April, slightly better than the overall social zero growth rate (- 0.2%) in the same period. In the short term, the demand depends on the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of offline passenger flow; In the long run, the upgrading of the ancient process on the product side will stimulate terminal consumption, and the reform of changing the one-time price of gold to the weight of gold on the price side will promote the transparency of the pricing mechanism. With the head brand actively expanding the sinking market, the market concentration is expected to continue to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Market review last week:
Last week (202205.16202205.20), the retail trade (CITIC) index rose 0.77%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.46pct. Ranking first in the retail sector of CITIC. The top sub industries in the commerce and retail sector are e-commerce and services, home appliances 3C and trade. The quantile of PE in commercial retail industry is less than CSI 300. At present, the PE (TTM) of commercial retail industry is -42.16, which is 0.04% from small to large since 2012; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300pe (TTM) is 12.12, and the quantile is 45.62%.
Industry dynamic tracking:
E-commerce: Jingdong international fresh supermarket was officially launched. Xin Lijun, CEO of Jingdong retail, said that the strength of 618 worthy of attention and expectation lies in the supply chain. Jingdong has provided 80000 tons of material support and 50000 square cabin hospital beds for Shanghai. Jingdong 618 will open pre-sale on May 23, and the proportion of new products will increase by 20%; Hungry? App added "community barber" channel, covering 32 communities in Shanghai in the first batch; Tmall global added a new intelligent warehouse and announced 618 logistics support services; Meituan takeout and Changchun Food Association issued 10 million consumption coupons; Tiktok will refund the software service fee of merchants in areas seriously affected by the epidemic. Traditional retail: Shanghai will resume business and market in stages from May 16; HEMA has resumed business in 60 offline stores, and Yunling fresh organic vegetable production base has set up a brand "HEMA village" Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) 618 was officially launched, which will focus on home appliance purchase and service experience, and will add "Suning flash delivery" business on May 20.
Investment suggestions:
Maintain the "overweight" rating of the commercial retail industry.
Investment main line 1: gold jewelry is under pressure due to the impact of the epidemic, and the end consumption is expected to recover rapidly after the gradual recovery. It is suggested to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Investment mainline 2: common prosperity background, superimposed traffic peaking status quo, Internet enterprises are facing fierce competition, it is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with supply chain advantages.
Investment main line 3: the recent rebound of China's epidemic situation, increasingly strict local control, and the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control may be at an inflection point. Shanghai has steadily promoted the resumption of work and production, and paid attention to the post epidemic recovery opportunities of local commercial stocks in Shanghai. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co.Ltd(002561) Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) Shanghai Join Buy Co.Ltd(600838) 。
Risk tips:
Repeated outbreaks; Macroeconomic depression; Industry competition intensifies.
