Plate review
Last week’s performance: from May 16 to May 20, all shenwanyi industries except medicine and biology realized an increase, of which coal, power equipment and non-ferrous metals increased the most, with an increase of 7.39%, 7.26% and 6.91% respectively; Only the pharmaceutical industry fell by 2.01%; Power equipment ranked second, with an increase of 7.26%.
The top ten stocks of the new energy sector that saw the new energy sector last week last week last week are among the top ten stocks of the new energy sector that rose in the new energy sector last week. The top ten stocks of the new energy sector in the new energy sector last week last week last week are: C.Q.Pharmaceutical Holding Co.Ltd(000950) 00957 (20.17%), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (19.15%), Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) (18.49%). The top ten stocks that fell were: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (- 41.76%), Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) (- 30.38%), Citic Guoan Information Industry Co.Ltd(000839) (- 9.65%), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (- 1.40%), Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) (- 1.32%), Zhejiang Jiahua Energy Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600273) (- 0.56%).
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of new energy vehicles
According to the data of the passenger Federation, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in April was 280400, a year-on-year increase of 53%, a month on month decrease of 38%, and the penetration rate reached 30%. The cumulative sales volume from January to April reached 1.4701 million, a year-on-year increase of 122%. At the same time, many regions have issued policies to encourage the consumption of new energy vehicles, and Shandong Qingdao has launched a one-time car purchase subsidy of 3 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan; Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, has launched a total of 420 million yuan of consumer vouchers, with subsidies of 2000, 3000 and 5000 yuan / vehicle according to the purchase amount, and an additional 1000 yuan for new energy in the same grade; Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, launched 10 million yuan of consumption coupons and issued subsidies of 6000, 11000 and 16000 yuan in three grades according to the amount of car purchase. We judge that the production and sales of electric vehicles in China may reach the bottom due to the epidemic. With the gradual easing of the epidemic and the possibility of logistics improvement, production and sales are expected to gradually usher in repair, and the superposition of incentive policies is expected to promote the release of new energy vehicle consumption.
Under the current general trend of vehicle electrification, the global sales of new energy vehicles are still expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. There are still structural opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector in 2022, and short-term adjustment may provide a buying opportunity. According to the prediction of the China Passenger Transport Federation, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 10 million units in 2022, while the sales volume in China is expected to reach 5 million units. China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry chain is expected to fully benefit from the general trend of increasing penetration of electric vehicles. Lithium battery industry chain: it is suggested to focus on leading companies with high self-sufficiency rate in the lithium resources sector, including: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) . With the continuous rise in the prices of raw materials such as lithium ore in the upstream and the improvement in the demand for new energy vehicles in the downstream, the price of power batteries may rise in 2022, and battery enterprises are expected to usher in profitable repair. The relevant targets are: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) . It is suggested that the lithium battery material industry chain should pay attention to the enterprises with strong bargaining power, integrated layout and overseas expansion of new customers: the cathode material should pay attention to the lithium iron phosphate and high nickel ternary leaders, and the relevant targets include: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ; Objects related to negative electrode materials: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , beiteri, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ; Electrolyte related targets: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) ; Related objects of diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ; Related targets of lithium battery accessories: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) . In the field of lithium battery recycling, in the context of the upcoming retirement tide of the power battery recycling industry, it is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises with the advantages of first mover and integration in the fields of power battery recycling and manufacturing, standby power and charge and discharge, and the relevant targets include: Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) . Related targets of new energy vehicle sector include: traditional vehicle enterprises Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , new power vehicle enterprises Weilai automobile, ideal automobile and Xiaopeng automobile.
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of photovoltaic and wind power
Photovoltaic: from the perspective of China, on May 17, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics from January to April. As for the installed capacity of power generation, by the end of April, the installed capacity of power generation in China was about 2.41 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power was about 340 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 17.7% Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed power generation capacity was about 320 million KW, an increase of 23.6% year-on-year. Focusing on the photovoltaic field, the new installed capacity of 1-4 kV was 16.88gw, including 3.67gw in April, a year-on-year increase of 110% and a month on month increase of 56%. In terms of power production data, in April, the total power generation was 608.6 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. Hydropower, wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation maintained rapid growth, of which wind power increased by 14.5%, 9.3 percentage points slower than that of the previous month Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation increased by 24.9%, 8.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Overall, China’s new PV installed capacity data in April maintained a high boom, with a year-on-year increase of + 110% and a month on month increase of + 56%, mainly due to the rapid development of distributed PV with strong component price affordability and the active promotion of the superimposed scenery large base project.
Internationally, the EU has announced an energy plan called “repowereu”. It plans to gradually get rid of dependence on Russian energy imports by investing 210 billion euros from now to 2027. The key points of the plan are as follows: 1) increase the overall target of renewable energy in 2030 in the EU’s “carbon reduction 55%” policy portfolio from 40% to 45%; 2) Establish a special EU Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) strategy to double Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic power generation capacity by 2025 (the stock will be 158.9gw in 2021, realizing the photovoltaic grid connection target of more than 320gw), and install 600gw by 2030; 3) Double the deployment rate of heat pumps and take measures to integrate geothermal and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) into modern regional and public heating systems.
Since 2021, EU member states such as Germany and Portugal have begun to raise the renewable energy installation target to accelerate the energy transformation. Considering only the target update of Austria, Germany and Portugal since last year, the minimum target of EU cumulative photovoltaic installation in 2030 is expected to be adjusted to 459472gw. This time, on the basis of the previous one, the installation target has been significantly increased again, and the annualized compound growth rate of EU installation will reach 15.9% by 2030, More recently, the CAGR will reach 19% by 2025. The European photovoltaic market is huge and highly dependent on the export of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises. According to the data of pvinfolink, China’s export to Europe in 2021 was 40.9gw, a year-on-year increase of 54% compared with 26.7gw in the previous year, accounting for 45% of China’s total export share of photovoltaic modules. In the first quarter of 2022, Europe imported 16.7gw photovoltaic modules to China, a year-on-year increase of 145%. It is expected that in the future, China’s photovoltaic industry chain will continue to benefit from the rapid growth of photovoltaic demand in Europe.
In the short term, the price of photovoltaic in the middle and upper reaches continued to rise slightly last week, which was mainly due to the lower than expected increase in the release of production expansion by large Chinese manufacturers, superimposed by the strong demand in the lower reaches. From the supply side: according to the silicon branch, China’s polysilicon output in Q1 is about 159000 tons, and the import volume in the same period is expected to be 22000 tons. The total supply of silicon material in China is about 181000 tons, lower than expected. Compared with the silicon material demand corresponding to the silicon wafer output of 72gw, the silicon material supply is slightly insufficient. In April, China’s polysilicon output was about 58000 tons, a month on month increase of + 6.2%. The import volume in the same period is expected to be 6000 tons, and China’s total supply is about 64000 tons. Compared with the silicon material demand corresponding to the silicon wafer output of about 24gw, the silicon material supply is slightly insufficient. According to the production expansion progress of various enterprises, it is estimated that the output of polycrystalline silicon in Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in China is expected to exceed 18 / 18 / 200000 tons in 2022, the annual overseas polycrystalline silicon supply is expected to be about 100000 tons, and the annual silicon supply is expected to exceed about 820000 tons, which can meet the terminal installation demand of about 225gw. From the demand side, the off-season demand for Q1 photovoltaic in 2022 is not light. As of March, the scale of component bid opening / bidding of central state-owned enterprises in 2022 exceeded 50gw, and the operating rate of component manufacturers remained high. Looking ahead to Q2, China suggests paying attention to the construction and commencement of large bases; Overseas, with the end of the rush for installation in India, India’s photovoltaic installation demand may return to normal growth. However, under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European terminal electricity price soared, superimposing the demand to get rid of Russia’s energy supply, and the European Photovoltaic installation demand may usher in explosive growth. Combined with the supply and demand pattern, the overall new supply of Q1 silicon material in 2022 is still insufficient compared with the new demand in the downstream. The mismatch between supply and demand of silicon material is maintained, the price of silicon material maintains a slight upward trend, the battery chip link is in the stage of price game, and the downstream component manufacturers and terminals are in a heavy wait-and-see mood. With the subsequent capacity release of silicon material manufacturers, the prices in the middle and upper reaches are expected to decline, driving the downstream installation demand. In May, the supply and demand of silicon materials will reach 67 Shantui Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000680) 00 tons and 72 Shandong Xinneng Taishan Power Generation Co.Ltd(000720) 00 tons respectively. The overall supply is still less than the demand. Therefore, it is expected that the price of silicon materials will continue to rise slightly in the short term.
From a long-term perspective, under the background of “double carbon” and the clear goal that the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025, the cost of superimposed photovoltaic power generation continues to decline, the economy continues to improve, the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity is high, and the growth certainty is strong. Related targets: 1) silicon material leaders Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , with tight supply and demand pattern and high profitability; 2) Component integrated faucet Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; 3) Inverter taps benefiting from photovoltaic + energy storage dual wheel drive Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; 4) Photovoltaic glass duopoly Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and Xinyi solar energy benefiting from the improvement of the permeability of double glass modules; 5) Subject to the short-term supply bottleneck of raw materials and limited market demand, the leading enterprises in EVA film link Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; 6) Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , benefiting from the increased proportion of distributed photovoltaic.
Wind power: in the short term, in 2022, the wind power industry will expand intensively, the pace of expansion is in a hurry, the trend of large-scale wind turbines is significant, the overall cost of the industry is expected to continue to decline, and the wind power landscape is expected to improve. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. The wind power industry has broad prospects and long-term growth space. At the same time, offshore wind power is the key to solve the contradiction between insufficient power generation and power load in the eastern coastal areas. Subject matter with cost advantage and technical core competitiveness: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , etc.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The double carbon policy is less than expected; The epidemic development exceeded expectations.
